pre - tragedy of nomenklatura干部任命制度前悲劇

In-ClassReport

TheTragedyoftheNomenklaturaPeking

UniversityPeng

Zhou

Songguo

Liu

Yifan

Li問題背景“人治”的極權(quán)體制Nomenklatura下的晉升激勵權(quán)力金字塔晉升與革命資歷不成比例集中的權(quán)力人數(shù)黨中央(n=71)省委(n=51)中央政府(n=148)地方政府(n=28)正式代表6978.9%27.4%67.6%39.3%候補代表7221.1%72.6%32.4%60.7%中央軍委(n=62)地方軍區(qū)(n=33)政協(xié)(n=32)全國性組織及其他(n=88)平均職位數(shù)正式代表70.9%54.5%53.1%40.9%4.30候補代表29.1%45.5%46.9%59.1%2.97晉升與革命資歷變量選取因變量：超額凈糧食征購率核心解釋變量：省委書記的黨內(nèi)級別控制變量：省長的黨內(nèi)級別、省份的糧食產(chǎn)量、受災程度、基層的激進程度、GDP、農(nóng)業(yè)貢獻率·Controlling

Personality

and

Individual

Characteristics·比較參數(shù)變化·AM的顯著性不變·用三組Multinominal

Logistic

Model說明·僅在AM和FM間存在晉升的機制·從NM到AM，F(xiàn)M到PM會受建國前的因素影響·（1）（2）將在CC內(nèi)作為因變量，將NM做底可以看見，在第七屆上是PM對第八屆進入CC是顯著的加入游擊戰(zhàn)爭經(jīng)歷后，從（2）看出，游擊戰(zhàn)爭對于進入CC是顯著的·（3）（4）將成為PM作為因變量，將AM作為底假如長征經(jīng)歷后，可以看出，長征經(jīng)歷對于成為PM是顯著的·用上任時間去掉內(nèi)生性Chen

&

Kung:

prerevolutionary(sic)credentials

Problem

I：Why

were

they

less

motivated?DataSelection

biasStatisticalresultIntuitionFM

:

EnormousheterogeneityamongChina’sprovincesNM:

Chance

to

be

enrolled

in

CCMDynamic

criteriaforentryintotheCentralCommitteeProblem

I：Why

were

they

less

motivated?Data

Problem Higher

EPR

certainprovincesledbyFPSswhowereAM Lower

EPR

certainprovincesledbyFPSswhowereFM Careless

imputation Confusionofcoding

The

repetition

of

K&C’s

regression

Nosignificant

resultsProblem

II：Is

the

dataset

correct?PSRers,who

were

in

Mao’s

personal

network,

seemedto

be

more

politically

radical.Another

Hypothesis-Loyalty

to

MaoReferenceKungKS,ChenS.TheTragedyoftheNomenklatura:CareerIncentivesandPoliticalRadicalismduringChina'sGreatLeapFamine[J].AmericanPoliticalScienceReview,2011,105(1):27-45.YangDL,XuH,TaoR.ATragedyoftheNomenklatura?Careerincentives,politicalloyaltyandpolitical