大象起舞7：搭建春季躁動(dòng)的臺

內(nèi)容目錄內(nèi)容目錄TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u回顧與觀點(diǎn) 3核心圖表跟蹤 6風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示 12圖表目錄圖表目錄中長期視角看紅利率：相對PB已回到年水平，對比利率性比顯 6紅利板塊擁擠度：體階段低位，消費(fèi)利期有所回暖 6ETF流入看，12月A股港股紅利ETF凈流入達(dá)246/56億元，規(guī)模上臺階 7哪些紅利更值得關(guān)注——央企紅利 7哪些紅利更值得關(guān)注——港股紅利 8春季躁動(dòng)：成長TMT大概率有超額 8AI維持高位 9低空經(jīng)濟(jì)催化：2024年12月27日低空經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展司正式成立，續(xù)內(nèi)外催化有望延續(xù) 10主題龍頭表現(xiàn)：2020~2021年的新能源VS當(dāng)前的低空經(jīng)濟(jì)、人機(jī)人以及人工智能 回顧與觀點(diǎn)回顧：9A+11月以來《大象起舞》系列長期推薦科技+紅利，并階段提示紅利超額機(jī)會(huì)。布局春季躁動(dòng)，紅利扛旗，新質(zhì)科技龍頭進(jìn)攻。12"16點(diǎn)4.5%+流+“+科技重視保險(xiǎn)增量資金和后續(xù)A500ETF/&零部件基建/（T國內(nèi)H/+應(yīng)用廣告出版++資金端紅利ETF+無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率加速下行ETF+底倉優(yōu)選。賠率視角：PB23A勝率視角：利率下臺階階段，紅利成為銀行、保險(xiǎn)等資金保收益率的備選，價(jià)格同國債期貨上升；同時(shí)寬松+景氣弱驗(yàn)證下，紅利+科技的啞鈴持續(xù)領(lǐng)先。資金視角：12A股/HETF246/56AH紅ETF35-40%紅利配置：（見圖412月以來平均回報(bào)率5.9，領(lǐng)先全A+A股（回顧歷史春季躁動(dòng)：成長TMT往往超額顯著，是進(jìn)攻首選。151-26次87%40%TMT2）2016/2024A2018/2022（這401172021，1-2/TMT/TMT30144）+虧損股“炒差”擁擠度快速回落，邊際資金轉(zhuǎn)向前景清晰向好的新質(zhì)生產(chǎn)力主題。（23~27）5.4%16%73%：1）TAI熱度90%+1AI26DeepSeek發(fā)布了其DeepSeek-V33）102885%60%121225AI20209231300+%。20209232030年2060至201年2月10日近5200+%325（180%2021本輪三大主題重大催化，低空經(jīng)濟(jì)以7月22日億航通航和合翼航空遞交運(yùn)營合格OC826924AI核心圖表跟蹤 中長視看利率相對PB已到初，對利性比顯 數(shù)據(jù)來源：，行業(yè)股息率成交額占比-月度VS24-10VS24-09走勢21年來近1年分位數(shù)21年來分位數(shù)24-1224-1124-1024-0924-1224-1124-1024-09金融地產(chǎn)低估值 3.7%地產(chǎn)開發(fā)保險(xiǎn)國有銀行股份銀行城商行出版服裝家紡紡織制造低估值行業(yè)股息率成交額占比-月度VS24-10VS24-09走勢21年來近1年分位數(shù)21年來分位數(shù)24-1224-1124-1024-0924-1224-1124-1024-09金融地產(chǎn)低估值 3.7%地產(chǎn)開發(fā)保險(xiǎn)國有銀行股份銀行城商行出版服裝家紡紡織制造低估值1.6%低估值高ROE2.6%4.4%5.5%5.3%3.3%4.4%2.2%煤炭開采低估值高分紅6.0%煉化貿(mào)易低估值高分紅4.6%3.8%1.5%2.6%4.9%5.6%5.5%3.3%4.3%2.2%4.1%4.6%2.9%2.8%2.9%3.7%3.0%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.6%3.8%2.8%3.4%4.1%6.1%4.9%0.09%0.87%-0.18%3.8% 3.5% 0.10% 1.4% 1.5% -0.18% 2.4% 0.5% -0.03% 5.0%0.6% 0.17% 5.4%0.5% 0.07% 4.6% 0.4% 0.07% 3.4%0.6% 0.11% 4.7%0.6% 0.24% 2.5% 0.2% 0.08% 4.1% 0.4% -0.01% 5.9% 0.2% 0.06% 2.6% 0.2% 0.06% 3.0% 0.1% 0.06% 2.6%0.8% 0.05% 3.8% 0.3% 0.10% 3.2% 0.5% 0.20% 2.5% 0.4% 0.05% 2.5% 0.1% 0.00% 2.4%1.6%0.33% 2.6% 0.2% 0.05% 3.7% 0.2% 0.05%-0.16%2.9%0.8% -0.03% 3.6% 0.5% 0.04% 4.0% 0.4% -0.02% 5.9%0.7% 0.14% 4.9% 0.4% 0.03% -4.16%-0.18%-1.56%-2.41%%%%%-0.%0.16%0.24%0.05%-0.52%0.09%-0.02%0.07%-0.38%0.07%0.05%0.03%-0.05%-0.49%-0.07%-0.12%0.00%-0.36%-0.13%-0.18%-0.19%18%36%9%18%36%18%18%9%18%64%91%64%0%100%27%100%0%100%100%91%9%18%0%9%0%9%64%36%0%0%0%27%0% 82%0% 55%9% 36%36%100%73%91%91%100%27%100%27%100%27%91%27% 9%13%30%13%26%28%28%68%11%38%77%91%47%26%94%79%98%4%57%77%57%23%0%4%2%24%46%43%22%2%15%65%4%2%16%42%49%78%71%24%49%69%57%41%41%91%73%61%64%18%55%9% 0% 18%9% 18%100%82%18%82%54%13%52%白色家電高ROE高分紅3.9%廚衛(wèi)電器高ROE高分紅5.4%小家電高ROE高分紅2.9%照明設(shè)備 高分紅 2.9%中藥 高分紅 2.9%食品加工高ROE高分紅3.6%飲料乳品高ROE高分紅2.8%2.4%2.6%2.4%9%45%0%9%9%64%27%0%9%9%0%0%27%55%64%9%45%45%91%82%4%26%76%39%72%9%13%4%43%26%0%33%62%49%16%4%18%29%53%18%低估值高ROE2.8%房屋建設(shè)低估值高ROE3.8%基礎(chǔ)建設(shè) 低估值 11%77%48%86%59%34%25%52%50%52%50%45%64%43%鐵路公路低估值高分紅3.2%36%9%45%0% 0% 36%55%73%36%9%45%航運(yùn)港口 低估值 3.4% 18%18%18% 0% 0%9% 0% 0%55%64%27%64%82%45%27%45%26%7%22%27%32%43%77%13%21%2%46%48%70%13%2%0%71%53%11%9%0%34%34%25%26-0.50-0.64-0.47-0.5584%95%82%17% 2%100%100%9%93%100%89%91%板塊行業(yè)細(xì)分特征24-1224-1124-1024-12VS24-11整體3.8%4.0%3.9%12.8%1.50%消費(fèi)醫(yī)藥高ROE高分紅4.2%4.3%4.2%4.0%0.85%周期穩(wěn)定低估值高分紅3.4%3.4%3.4%0.54%數(shù)據(jù)來源：，ETFETF流入看，12月A股/港股紅利ETF凈流入達(dá)246/56億元，規(guī)模再上臺階規(guī)模：港股紅利(右,億元) 凈流入：港股紅利(億元)2520151050-5-10數(shù)據(jù)來源：，哪些紅利更值得關(guān)注——央企紅利哪些紅利更值得關(guān)注——央企紅利標(biāo)的基本情況市值所在細(xì)分股息率ROE分紅比例相對PB成交額占比漲跌幅證券代碼證券名稱申萬二級（億元）預(yù)期未來3年?duì)I收CAGR23Y宣告股息率近12月16+股息率分位數(shù)當(dāng)前20-2316-1916+當(dāng)前20-2316-19近5年21+24+12月601398.SH工商銀行國有大型銀行Ⅱ246631.7%4.4%4.4%23%9.3%10.5%13.4%0%30%30%30%43%70%18%13%601939.SH建設(shè)銀行國有大型銀行Ⅱ219261.7%4.6%4.6%29%10.0%11.3%13.7%0%30%30%30%51%51%9%10%601288.SH農(nóng)業(yè)銀行國有大型銀行Ⅱ185841.7%4.3%4.3%6%9.2%9.8%13.0%9%30%30%30%80%77%18%10%601988.SH中國銀行國有大型銀行Ⅱ161321.7%4.3%4.3%9%8.5%9.4%11.5%0%30%30%30%94%53%9%9%601658.SH郵儲銀行國有大型銀行Ⅱ55431.7%4.7%4.7%53%8.4%9.6%11.6%0%30%30%30%50%15%18%5%601998.SH中信銀行股份制銀行Ⅱ3754-0.8%4.6%7.3%100%8.3%9.0%10.9%3%26%26%26%57%81%27%5%601818.SH光大銀行股份制銀行Ⅱ2257-0.8%4.5%4.5%30%7.2%8.7%11.1%0%25%26%25%31%47%18%6%600048.SH保利發(fā)展房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)1093-16.2%4.7%4.5%76%3.3%13.4%15.5%0%40%31%32%11%4%0%-11%601668.SH中國建筑房屋建設(shè)Ⅱ25131.1%4.5%4.5%78%11.0%14.5%15.4%0%21%21%20%26%11%0%1%601088.SH中國神華煤炭開采83830.1%5.4%5.4%38%13.9%14.0%11.4%59%75%85%45%100%32%9%6%601898.SH中煤能源煤炭開采15710.1%4.7%6.5%100%11.7%10.6%2.9%74%30%30%29%100%19%9%-5%601857.SH中國石油煉化及貿(mào)易163252.3%4.9%5.0%83%10.9%7.1%2.6%82%50%79%90%94%38%9%11%600028.SH中國石化煉化及貿(mào)易80842.3%5.4%5.2%42%6.3%7.5%7.2%21%69%72%82%100%28%9%5%600938.SH中國海油油氣開采Ⅱ137274.0%4.4%33%19.9%17.4%13.1%67%44%43%90%25%9%10%600900.SH長江電力電力72451.0%2.8%2.8%6%16.0%14.0%15.7%68%74%75%67%100%77%9%8%600863.SH內(nèi)蒙華電電力2851.0%4.2%4.2%80%11.6%7.4%5.4%94%60%90%53%94%19%9%3%001965.SZ招商公路鐵路公路949-1.9%3.8%3.8%67%9.4%7.5%8.3%90%54%50%40%93%79%9%17%601006.SH大秦鐵路鐵路公路1242-1.9%5.6%7.5%91%6.1%9.4%12.0%0%58%62%51%66%62%9%0%601919.SH中遠(yuǎn)?？睾竭\(yùn)港口2426-4.1%5.4%4.9%20%17.9%40.6%-6.4%59%50%38%26%21%9%12%601598.SH中國外運(yùn)物流392-5.8%5.4%5.4%90%10.1%10.7%10.5%33%50%38%34%78%19%0%2%000708.SZ中信特鋼特鋼Ⅱ5833.0%4.9%4.9%94%13.1%22.0%10.7%41%50%52%48%46%4%0%-2%600019.SH寶鋼股份普鋼1548-16.9%4.4%4.3%42%4.8%7.9%8.6%12%57%54%51%69%13%9%6%600282.SH南鋼股份普鋼285-16.9%5.4%7.6%65%8.6%11.4%11.2%26%73%61%30%74%28%18%11%002080.SZ中材科技玻璃玻纖2337.1%4.0%4.0%88%6.2%18.4%8.1%12%42%35%37%11%34%64%6%600941.SH中國移動(dòng)通信服務(wù)246243.8%3.8%4.0%20%10.3%9.9%11.0%74%72%59%91%37%9%8%601728.SH中國電信通信服務(wù)65613.8%3.3%3.6%10%7.3%6.2%6.0%100%70%65%92%33%0%11%600737.SH中糧糖業(yè)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工224-4.9%8.3%7.9%100%16.3%7.7%7.8%91%90%61%48%60%47%27%6%600916.SH中國黃金飾品1475.0%5.1%5.1%100%13.3%11.8%9.3%90%78%62%7%13%0%0%600582.SH天地科技專用設(shè)備257-2.4%4.5%4.5%100%10.7%8.9%6.8%97%49%46%24%86%34%0%4%600750.SH江中藥業(yè)中藥Ⅱ140-1.2%5.9%5.4%78%20.3%14.1%14.8%100%116%95%32%91%15%9%9%數(shù)據(jù)來源：，哪些紅利更值得關(guān)注——港股紅利哪些紅利更值得關(guān)注——港股紅利企業(yè)介紹 股息率比較 溢價(jià) 流動(dòng)性 Ｈ股漲跌幅 總市值 南向凈流入A股代碼H股代碼公司名稱行業(yè)企業(yè)屬性A股H股差值A(chǔ)H溢價(jià)換手率近1周近4周A+H近1周近4周601939.SH0939.HK建設(shè)銀行銀行央企4.6%6.8%2.2%46%0.143.4%10.6%152408.538.6601288.SH1288.HK農(nóng)業(yè)銀行銀行央企4.3%5.7%1.4%30%0.535.3%13.7%182074.411.9601398.SH1398.HK工商銀行銀行央企4.4%6.5%2.1%45%0.387.1%13.4%2280313.427.4601328.SH3328.HK交通銀行銀行公眾4.9%6.5%1.6%32%0.085.7%11.9%50741.79.6601988.SH3988.HK中國銀行銀行央企4.3%6.6%2.3%50%0.333.7%10.1%146000.588.0601998.SH0998.HK中信銀行銀行央企4.7%6.7%2.0%41%0.197.2%11.9%34560.23.2601818.SH6818.HK光大銀行銀行央企4.5%6.4%1.9%39%0.116.5%10.4%21210.21.3600016.SH1988.HK民生銀行銀行公眾5.3%7.1%1.8%33%0.394.4%11.0%17101.00.7601077.SH3618.HK渝農(nóng)商行銀行國企4.9%7.0%2.1%40%0.508.1%13.5%6290.62.0600036.SH3968.HK招商銀行銀行公眾5.0%5.5%0.4%7%0.393.0%13.0%98005.010.4601658.SH1658.HK郵儲銀行銀行央企4.7%6.4%1.7%35%0.342.6%4.2%52582.98.4601319.SH1339.HK中國人保非銀央企2.0%4.5%2.5%119%0.461.3%3.2%30290.02.7601601.SH2601.HK中國太保非銀公眾3.0%4.5%1.5%49%0.431.4%1.9%29690.18.7601318.SH2318.HK中國平安非銀公眾4.6%5.7%1.2%24%0.581.4%3.5%89293.73.4600941.SH0941.HK中國移動(dòng)通信央企3.8%6.4%2.5%63%0.100.7%6.1%1553215.995.7601728.SH0728.HK中國電信通信央企3.3%5.2%2.0%58%0.390.2%9.6%61953.31.9600028.SH0386.HK中國石化石化央企5.2%8.6%3.4%64%0.532.3%5.3%7455-1.615.9600938.SH0883.HK中國海油石化央企4.0%6.7%2.7%67%0.213.1%9.6%85651.660.4601857.SH0857.HK中國石油石化央企4.9%8.0%3.1%60%0.604.0%8.8%156210.426.8601088.SH1088.HK中國神華煤炭央企5.4%7.5%2.2%38%0.59-0.6%3.8%79894.732.9600188.SH1171.HK兗礦能源煤炭國企10.6%18.8%8.1%73%0.55-2.2%-2.4%11640.015.3600377.SH0177.HK寧滬高速交運(yùn)國企3.1%6.0%2.9%90%0.373.5%9.7%6710.50.8601298.SH6198.HK青島港交運(yùn)國企3.4%5.2%1.9%53%0.303.0%12.5%5300.00.0601919.SH1919.HK中遠(yuǎn)?？亟贿\(yùn)央企4.9%6.3%1.5%29%0.813.9%17.5%23170.26.6600011.SH0902.HK華能國際公用央企2.9%5.2%2.3%74%0.67-1.2%4.9%9410.61.3600585.SH0914.HK海螺水泥建材國企4.0%5.3%1.3%31%0.381.4%-3.2%11990.04.5601186.SH1186.HK中國鐵建建筑央企3.8%6.6%2.9%74%0.581.8%9.1%11830.30.8601390.SH0390.HK中國中鐵建筑央企3.2%5.8%2.5%76%0.622.0%8.4%1491-0.21.9000157.SZ1157.HK中聯(lián)重科機(jī)械公眾4.5%6.3%1.8%38%0.83-0.5%6.6%5830.01.3688009.SH3969.HK中國通號機(jī)械央企2.7%5.6%2.8%100%0.352.4%9.1%5960.10.9均值4.4%6.6%2.3%52.6%0.432.8%8.3%總和68483中位數(shù)4.5%6.4%2.1%47.8%0.392.8%9.4%南向整體307798數(shù)據(jù)來源：，春季躁動(dòng)：成長春季躁動(dòng)：成長TMT大概率有超額1-2月表現(xiàn)201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024行情&經(jīng)濟(jì)背景周期向上意外沖擊周期向上全球下跌周期向上全球下跌意外沖擊上證起始點(diǎn)位全A表現(xiàn)327728082199226921163235353931043307249430503473364030892975-6%3%11%6%0%8%-30%3%-3%21%0%0%-7%7%-4%領(lǐng)先風(fēng)格小盤6%小盤4%大盤12%小盤12%小盤8%小盤18%大盤-23%大盤4%大盤0%大盤22%小盤5%大盤2%大盤-7%小盤11%大盤2%領(lǐng)先板塊-1領(lǐng)先板塊-2TMT6%成長4%穩(wěn)定8%周期5%15%13%14%TMT12%TMT11%成長6%TMT29%24%-23%-29%穩(wěn)定4%周期3%金融0%-3%TMT27%25%TMT16%12%周期6%金融1%穩(wěn)定1%-2%TMT13%10%金融6%穩(wěn)定3%領(lǐng)先行業(yè)-315%10%電子8%12%11%11%有色27%軍工32%計(jì)算機(jī)22%計(jì)算機(jī)47%-11%-14%-21%鋼鐵9%家電8%有色7%鋼鐵5%社服5%銀行4%33%31%計(jì)算機(jī)29%電子20%計(jì)算機(jī)17%通信13%16%13%基化9%11%有色6%計(jì)算機(jī)19%通信18%15%11%煤炭18%醫(yī)藥19%電新13%38%28%非銀17%傳媒18%社服13%石化4%鋼鐵12%家電8%全年表現(xiàn)201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024領(lǐng)先風(fēng)格小盤17%大盤-25%大盤8%小盤32%大盤52%小盤76%大盤-11%大盤22%大盤-25%大盤36%大盤27%小盤21%小盤-22%小盤-6%大盤16%領(lǐng)先板塊-1領(lǐng)先板塊-2TMT28%25%-16%-21%26%穩(wěn)定6%TMT60%41%94%89%TMT83%75%金融-8%金融14%金融-19%TMT48%消費(fèi)48%周期25%穩(wěn)定-3%TMT11%穩(wěn)定2%35%TMT20%消費(fèi)-10%消費(fèi)13%穩(wěn)定-20%消費(fèi)47%成長41%成長18%金融-10%領(lǐng)先行業(yè)-1電子66%銀行-4%地產(chǎn)35%103%計(jì)算機(jī)76%通信45%130%100%78%計(jì)算機(jī)126%123%115%食飲8%家電2%55%45%-9%-11%73%72%88%88%50%48%18%社服6%25%20%43%38%醫(yī)藥29%食飲-10%非銀32%計(jì)算機(jī)29%傳媒-17%建筑22%銀行1%煤炭19%石化-19%家電61%社服81%有色46%交運(yùn)2%煤炭13%家電33%數(shù)據(jù)來源：， AI0%

虧損股累計(jì)漲跌幅 擁擠度（右軸）70%60%50%40%30%近期市場“炒差”情緒快速冷卻對公司年報(bào)虧損的擔(dān)憂媒體傳播退市新規(guī)預(yù)期70%60%50%40%30%近期市場“炒差”情緒快速冷卻對公司年報(bào)虧損的擔(dān)憂媒體傳播退市新規(guī)預(yù)期20%10%2024-10-14,72%2024-12-27,73%0%

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