最新中國(guó)蘋果汁行業(yè)的全新分析

1、中國(guó)蘋果汁、梨汁產(chǎn)業(yè)狀況及2008產(chǎn)情預(yù)測(cè) chinese ajc & pjc industry and new crop forecast 張健jian zhang 國(guó)投中魯果汁股份有限公司 sdic zhonglu fruit juice co.,ltd. 1991-2007年度蘋果、梨種植面積年度蘋果、梨種植面積/產(chǎn)量介紹產(chǎn)量介紹 1991-2007 apple&pear plantation acreage/production 2003-2007年度蘋果汁出口情況年度蘋果汁出口情況 2003-2007 ajc export by country 2003-2007年度國(guó)內(nèi)果汁消費(fèi)情況

2、年度國(guó)內(nèi)果汁消費(fèi)情況 2003-2007 domestic juice consumption 目前果汁行業(yè)狀況及規(guī)模目前果汁行業(yè)狀況及規(guī)模 juice concentrate industry and processing capacity 2008/09榨季蘋果、梨果情預(yù)測(cè)榨季蘋果、梨果情預(yù)測(cè) 2008/09 crop apple&pear output forecast 2008/09榨季蘋果汁、梨汁產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)榨季蘋果汁、梨汁產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè) 2008/09 crop ajc&pjc production forecast 中國(guó)與世界蘋果種植面積中國(guó)與世界蘋果種植面積 apple plantati

3、on acreage: world vs china source: 世界糧農(nóng)組織fao unit: 1000ha 中國(guó)與世界蘋果產(chǎn)量中國(guó)與世界蘋果產(chǎn)量 apple production: world vs china 27,500,000mt source: 世界糧農(nóng)組織fao&中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部moa unit: 1000mt 中國(guó)與世界梨種植面積中國(guó)與世界梨種植面積 pear plantation acreage: world vs china source: 世界糧農(nóng)組織fao unit:1000ha 中國(guó)與世界梨產(chǎn)量中國(guó)與世界梨產(chǎn)量 pear production: world vs chi

4、na source: 世界糧農(nóng)組織fao&中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部moa unit: 1000mt 12,895,000mt 2007/08中國(guó)榨季蘋果中國(guó)榨季蘋果/梨汁產(chǎn)量梨汁產(chǎn)量 2007/08 ajc/ pjc production in china total production of apple: 27,360,000mt total production of ajc: 1,040,000mt proportion for processing: 30% total production of pear: 12,895,000mt total production of pjc: 60,000

5、mt proportion for processing: 5% source: 中國(guó)食土商會(huì)cfna&中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部moa 中國(guó)蘋果汁出口數(shù)量及單價(jià)中國(guó)蘋果汁出口數(shù)量及單價(jià) ajc export by quantity/unit price 417,337 492,594 648,507 673,047 1,042,704 475,727 source: 中國(guó)海關(guān)gac - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 200320042005200620072008 jan- jul quantity: mt - 200 400 600

6、 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 unit price:us$/mt quantity unit price 中國(guó)蘋果汁分國(guó)別出口比例中國(guó)蘋果汁分國(guó)別出口比例 ajc export proportion by country source: 中國(guó)海關(guān)gac 07與與06榨季蘋果汁出口量對(duì)比榨季蘋果汁出口量對(duì)比 ajc export: 2007/08 vs 2006/07 crop country oct.2006 to jul.2007 oct.2007 to jul.2008 changes usa 308,074 337,080 9% rus

7、sia 100,043 57,585 -42% netherlands 106,121 81,358 -23% japan 72,719 72,541 0% germany 99,954 38,551 -61% canada 32,559 29,664 -9% australia 28,975 29,194 1% others 168,216 106,501 -37% total 872,787 752,476 -14% unit: mt source: 中國(guó)海關(guān)gac 國(guó)內(nèi)果汁消費(fèi)情況國(guó)內(nèi)果汁消費(fèi)情況 domestic juice consumption 果汁飲料發(fā)展迅速，5年內(nèi)果汁產(chǎn)量從3

8、10萬噸增加到1080萬噸。 juice&juice drink industry develops rapidly，the total production increased from 3.1 million tons to 10.8 million tons in the past 5 years. 果汁飲料銷售量已超過碳酸飲料。 juice&juice drink sale volume exceeds csd. 未來市場(chǎng)潛力巨大，占全國(guó)人口總數(shù)四分之三的農(nóng)村市場(chǎng)仍待開發(fā)， 同時(shí)，青少年也逐步成為果汁消費(fèi)的主力軍。 juice&juice drink has a huge potent

9、ial market. the rural market, which accounts for 75% of total population is waiting for development. youth and children are becoming major consumers of juice & juice drink. 2003-2007年中國(guó)飲料產(chǎn)量年中國(guó)飲料產(chǎn)量 2003-2007 beverage production volume in china unit: 1000mt source: 中國(guó)飲料協(xié)會(huì)cbia juice/juice drink product

10、ion increased from 3,108,000 tons to 10,786,000 tons in the past 5 years. 果汁行業(yè)狀況及規(guī)模果汁行業(yè)狀況及規(guī)模 juice concentrate industry and processing capacity 產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量穩(wěn)步提升，保證措施明確有力產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量穩(wěn)步提升，保證措施明確有力 product quality improves steadily and effective measures are taken. 行業(yè)一直非常關(guān)注產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量，在食品安全倍受關(guān)注的今天，我們又把產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量安全 擺到行業(yè)生存的高度。行業(yè)制訂了蘋

11、果濃縮汁（漿）加工用蘋果標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，在今年7 月召開果汁行業(yè)大會(huì)上通過并開始執(zhí)行。 nowadays product quality and safety are the major focus in the food industry. to ensure the quality and satisfaction of our product has been our first priority, we also look on them as the most important industrial criteria. therefore, the standard of apple jui

12、ce concentrate was established and carried out by the industry during the juice conference held in july,2008. 國(guó)家質(zhì)量監(jiān)督檢驗(yàn)檢疫總局為加強(qiáng)食品安全管理，出臺(tái)了一系列政策法規(guī)，特別是 加強(qiáng)了對(duì)加工用農(nóng)產(chǎn)品原料的控制，從源頭開始把關(guān)，確保食品安全。 a series of policies and regulations are initiated by administration of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine of

13、 the prc, to strengthen the control of raw material for processing, to make sure food safety from the beginning stages. 果汁行業(yè)狀況及規(guī)模果汁行業(yè)狀況及規(guī)模 juice concentrate industry and processing capacity 行業(yè)布局合理，設(shè)備水平先進(jìn)行業(yè)布局合理，設(shè)備水平先進(jìn) reasonable industrial distribution and advanced equipment 行業(yè)的工廠分布在蘋果、梨的主產(chǎn)區(qū)，資源越多的省份加

14、工能力越大，行業(yè)總生 產(chǎn)規(guī)模已達(dá)到4885噸/小時(shí)。 juice concentrate plants are located in main apple&pear growing areas. the provinces with richer resources have much bigger processing capacity. total processing capacity in china has reached to 4885mt/h. 行業(yè)各工廠設(shè)備的平均水平為世界一流，在保證品質(zhì)的同時(shí)，降低了原料及能源 的消耗，提高了產(chǎn)品的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)能力。 worlds top class

15、 plant equipments in the industry not only guaranteed product quality, but also lowered raw material usage, and enhanced product competitiveness. 中國(guó)蘋果中國(guó)蘋果/梨加工能力分布圖梨加工能力分布圖 apple&pear processing capacity by province total 4885mt/h source: 中國(guó)食土商會(huì)cfna shaanxi1500mt/h shandong, shanxi, henan550-650mt/h

16、gansu, ningxia, liaoning250-350mt/h hebei, anhui, jiangsu100-200mt/h sichuan, heilongjiang, yunnan, xinjiang, beijing 100mt/h 2008/09榨季蘋果、梨產(chǎn)情預(yù)測(cè)榨季蘋果、梨產(chǎn)情預(yù)測(cè) 2008/09 crop apple&pear output forecast 中國(guó)中國(guó)蘋果種植面積在1996年達(dá)到峰頂為299萬公頃，隨后逐年下降， 到2004年的谷底為188萬公頃；從2005年開始，蘋果種植面積再次出現(xiàn)增 加，2007年恢復(fù)到200萬公頃。 in 1996, chine

17、se apple plantation acreage reached a record high 2.99 million hectares, but declined in the forward years to the bottom 1.88 million hectares in 2004. since 2005, apple plantation acreage rebounded, and came back to 2million hectares. 中國(guó)蘋果產(chǎn)量自1999年突破2000萬噸后，保持逐年增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)，除2005年 遭遇大自然災(zāi)害減產(chǎn)外，到2007年已超過2700萬噸

18、。 chinese apple crop reached 20million metric tons since 1999, and increased steadily in the following years except 2005, when climate disaster damaged crop heavily. in 2007, apple crop has exceeded 27million metric tons. 2008/09榨季蘋果、梨產(chǎn)情預(yù)測(cè)榨季蘋果、梨產(chǎn)情預(yù)測(cè) 2008/09 crop apple&pear output forecast 今年中國(guó)雖然部分蘋果

19、種植區(qū)域出現(xiàn)的災(zāi)害，但由于種植面積的增加， 預(yù)計(jì)今年的蘋果產(chǎn)量將與去年持平或略高。 although disasters in part of apple growing areas, its predicted the total apple crop in 2008/09 season would be same or higher than last season due to increased plantation acreage. 同樣，梨的種植面積自2000年超過100萬公頃后，逐年增加，2007年超過 120萬公頃；產(chǎn)量也在逐年增加，2007年超過1200萬噸，預(yù)計(jì)今年產(chǎn)量與

20、去年相仿。 like apple, plantation acreage of pear reached 1million hectares and increased year by year to1.2 million hectares in 2007. pear crop also increased steadily up to 12 million metric tons in 2007. its predicted the crop in 2008/09 season would be similar with last year. 2008/09榨季蘋果汁、梨汁產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)榨季蘋果汁

21、、梨汁產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè) 2008/09 crop ajc/pjc production forecast 本榨季中國(guó)果汁行業(yè)將根據(jù)市場(chǎng)需求來決定蘋果汁的產(chǎn)量，行業(yè)已經(jīng)初步 達(dá)成了比去年減產(chǎn)35%的共識(shí)。同時(shí)，行業(yè)隨時(shí)會(huì)根據(jù)市場(chǎng)變化調(diào)整產(chǎn)量。 同樣，梨汁產(chǎn)量也會(huì)隨市場(chǎng)需求來調(diào)整。 the industry had agreed to reduce the production by 35% from last year according to market demand. meanwhile, production may vary by the actual market need. likewis

22、e, pear juice concentrate production quantity will also vary depending on the demand. 今年，行業(yè)開始生產(chǎn)時(shí)間比去年晚了一個(gè)半月，現(xiàn)已生產(chǎn)的果汁同比去年 減少25萬噸。而且行業(yè)大規(guī)模的正式生產(chǎn)將在大會(huì)后才正式開始。 due to the delay of production by one and half months in 2008, the total quantity of juice concentrate is estimated about 250,000 metric tons less than the same period of last year. the mass production through out the chinese ajc industry could be expected to a time when 2008 juice conference