項目管理者聯(lián)盟ppt課件

1、 Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction李俊偉 November 2002工程管理者聯(lián)盟, MYPM.NETContentEmergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and TechniquesThe Emergence of Project Portfolio Management1952, Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), Har

2、ry Markowitz, Journal of Finance, Portfolio Selection1990, Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Prize, dominant approach used to manage risk and return within financial markets1981, F.Warren McFarian, Portfolio Approach to Information Systems, HBR, to employ a risk-based approach to the selection and manage

3、ment of IT projects.1990s, a broader use of ideas of portfolio management 1998, John Thorp, The Information Paradox. Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions.Present, portfolio management as central elements of good investment managementPortfolio

4、Management, the overall pictureFocus(Strategic Planning )Source: PM Solutions, Portfolio Management, Dianne BridgesSelect(Portfolio Management)Manage(Project Management)ContentEmergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and Tech

5、niquesThe Old Philosophy about Portfolio Dont put all your eggs in one basket. Risk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait in human beings.Return and Risk in Financial Marketexpected returnstandard deviation (%)capital appreciationgrowth of income0 6 12 18 24 30 3620181614121086420incomeinflation

6、T-billsintermediate-termgovernmentbondslong-termgovernment bondslong-termcorporate bondslarge company stockssmallcompanystocksstabilityof principalThe Role of Combining SecuritiesThe expected return of a portfolio is a weighted average of the component expected returns.The Role of Combining Securiti

7、es10two-securityportfolio risk= riskA + riskB +interactiveriskThe total risk of a portfolio comes from thevariance of the components and from the relationships among the components.The Role of Combining Securitiesexpected returnrisk betterperformance A portfolio dominates all others if no other equa

8、lly risky portfolio has a higher expected return, or if no portfolio with the same expected return has less risk. The point of diversification is to achieve a given level of expected return while bearing the least possible risk.The Efficient Frontier : Optimum Diversification of Risky Assetsexpected

9、 returnrisk (standard deviation of returns)impossibleportfoliosdominatedportfoliosefficient frontierThe optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given returnThe optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontierThe Efficient Frontier vs Naive Diversification As portfolio size

10、increases,total portfolio risk, on average, declines. After a certain point, however, the marginal reduction in risk from the addition of another security is modest.total riskNon-diversifiablerisknumber of securities Naive diversification is the random selectionof portfolio components without conduc

11、ting any serious security analysis.Risk Reduction with DiversificationNumber of SecuritiesSt. DeviationMarket RiskUnique RiskMarket or systematic risk: risk related to the macro economic factor or market indexUnsystematic or firm specific risk: risk not related to the macro factor or market indexTot

12、al risk = Systematic + UnsystematicComponents of RiskTwo-Security Portfolios with Different Correlations = 113%8E(r)St. Dev12%20% = .3 = -1 = -1Relationship depends on correlation coefficient-1.0 +1.0The smaller the correlation, the greater the risk reduction potentialIf= +1.0, no risk reduction is

13、possiblePortfolio Risk/Return, Correlation EffectsStructuring a Portfolio : Asset Allocationattitudetoward riskneed forreturnrealizedreturnand riskwith thepassageof timestocksbondsrealestatecashforeignequitiesPortfolioASSETCLASSESindividual choice asset class mix investment resultsContentEmergence o

14、f Project Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and TechniquesWhat is project portfolio managementPortfolio Management is the project selection process and involves identifying opportunities: assessing the organizational fit; analyzing the cos

15、ts, benefits, and risks; and developing and selecting a portfolio. The art of project portfolio management is: doing the right thing, selecting the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.Portfolio Management is: Defining goals and objectives clearly articulate w

16、hat the portfolio is expected to achieveUnderstanding, accelerating, and making tradeoffs determine how much to invest in one thing as opposed to something elseIdentifying, eliminating,minimizing, and diversifying risk select a mix of investments that will avoid undue risk, will not exceed acceptabl

17、e risk tolerance levels, and will spread risks across projects and initiatives to minimize adverse impactsMonitoring portfolio performance understand the progress that the portfolio is making toward the achievement of the goals and objectivesAchieving a desired objective have the confidence that the

18、 desired outcome will likely be achieved given the aggregate of investments that are madePortfolio Management is NotDoing a series of project specific calculations and analyses, such as return on investment, benefit-cost analysis, net present value, payback period, rate of return, and then adjusting

19、 them all to account for risk. these are project specificCollecting after-the-market information on projects to produce a report that the organization hopes will satisfy some organizational reporting requirement.The benefits of Portfolio ManagementHaving a structure in place to select the right proj

20、ects and immediately remove the wrong projectsPlacing resources where it matters, reducing wasteful spendingLinking portfolio decisions to strategic direction and business goalsEstablishing logic, reasoning, and a sense of fairness behind portfolio decisionsEstablishing ownership amongst the staff b

21、y involvement at the right levelsContentEmergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and TechniquesProject Portfolio Management, Process & Technique Four stepsProject Evaluation MatrixEvaluation Criteria ExamplesStep 1: Define th

22、e PortfolioFirst, establish the overall portfolio mission. This mission statement will be used to initially determine what projects are in or out of the portfolio.The mission statement can be simple, like:The Intranet Portfolio covers all projects to be deployed on the corporate intranet.Step 2: Gat

23、her the ProjectsNow, gather all the projects together that you think might be in the portfolio. This may not be the list you already have. Some projects, including duplicate efforts, may be underway in other parts of the organization.Step 3: Begin WeedingOnce the project list is established, begin w

24、eeding the list down. Remove projects that:Are duplicate efforts. Here is an opportunity to save money by pooling two or more efforts into a single project.Do not meet the mission area. Some projects may be under your wing but do not fit in the mission area. Remove them from your portfolio and place

25、 them elsewhere.Step 4: Begin EvaluatingOnce the portfolio list is set, begin evaluating each project to determine what the overall portfolio will look like.Using the four-quadrant matrix here, evaluate the projects against two major criteria:What are the potential risks in implementing this project

26、?What are the potential benefits in implementing this project?QuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighProject Evaluation MatrixUsing the MatrixThe matrix is used as a scoring tool to map projects against the evaluated level of risk and the evaluated potential b

27、eneficial impact of a project.Projects are evaluated on both risk and benefit from low to high using a series of questions and scores.Projects are then evaluated in the worksheet and decisions made for inclusion and balancing the portfolio.QuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject

28、BenefitsLowHighHighMatrix Decision RegionsProjects to remove from the portfolioProjects to keep in the portfolioEvaluation CriteriaThe Evaluation Matrix uses two basic criteria: Risk and Benefit.Five sample risk areas:Risk of Completion On Time (Schedule Risk)Risk of Managing Multiple Organizations

29、(Organizational Risk)Risk of Technologies Used for the Application (Technological Risk)Risk of Not Proceeding with the Project (Risk of Not Doing It)Projects Implementation and Maintenance CostsFive sample benefit areas:Number of potential groups or users needing applicationProjects Impact on Cross-Functional ActivitiesProjects Impact on Improving Internal CultureProjects Impact on Improving External Customer ServiceEstimated Benefit/Cost Ratio (Potential Savings or Profits)Risk Assessment Scorecard- illustrationRisk CategoryWeighted Scale ExampleLow Risk Proje