“5G狂想曲”：設(shè)備庫存調(diào)整很快讓位于對(duì)供應(yīng)緊張的擔(dān)憂

1、Equity Research Asia Pacific | JapanTechnology sectorAsia feedback (Hardware): “The 5G Rhapsody”: device inventory adjustments quickly giving way to concerns about tight supplyTechnology | CommentSummary: We conducted our periodic survey of the Korean, Taiwanese and Chinese tech markets in midlate N

2、ovember. As in our previous survey, end demand shows no sign of picking up. In IT-related products, and smartphone-related products in particular, inventory adjustments have ended and restocking has begun. In addition, in early November, 5G smartphone manufacturers significantly increased their CY20

3、 production plans, sharply increasing concerns about tight supply for a number of devices heading into 2020 and leading to a scramble for devices. The question of how much to discount customers production plans is evidently becoming an issue for many device manufacturers.Focal points in hardware & d

4、evices: (1) In our report following the previous survey, we stated that makers target 5G-chipset output of 500mn units in CY20, and 5G smartphone output is likely to reach 250300mn units, but the 5G chipset production target is now greater than 500mn units, and we now believe 5G smartphone output wi

5、ll reach 470 480mn units. (2) Apple has not significantly altered its iPhone production plan in the wake of better-than-expected demand in October, and suppliers expect a smaller-than-usual seasonal adjustment in JanMar CY20, owing in part to launch of the iPhone SE 2. There is a growing possibility

6、 that in CY21, Apple will alter its new-model introduction cycle, releasing new iPhones not once per year as they do now (in autumn) but twice (in spring and autumn). Thus it is increasingly like that for the device sector, demand will be greater- than-usual in 1H CY21, defying the typical seasonali

7、ty. (3) In Chinese smartphones, the possibility of LTE handset inventory adjustments ahead of the launch of 5G models had been a concern, but to date there has been no sign of such an inventory adjustment, and in fact OctDec production volume is higher than was expected in the previous survey.(4) Fo

8、r a wide range of devices (including CISs, connectors, liquid crystal devices, power inductors, and high-frequency inductors), concerns are growing about tight supply heading into CY20. Concerns about tight supply in 2H CY20 are also emerging for some types of MLCC. In addition, we understand that L

9、C filters and SAW devices are starting to face tight supply.Stock calls: Although we think 5G smartphone production plans may be excessive, we maintain a bullish stance on the Japan technology sector, and on 5G-related stocks in particular which likely benefit from ASP unit growth, in light of the e

10、nd of inventory adjustments and the start of restocking, the launch of 5G smartphones, and the possible change in the new-model launch cycle for the iPhone. Murata Mfg (6981) and Taiyo Yuden (6976) the two companies likely to benefit the most from the spread of 5G smartphonesremain our top picks. We

11、 also prefer Alps Alpine (6770) (likely to benefit from an increase in the value of camera actuators built into flagship smartphone models) and Rohm (6963) (which has significant earnings leverage owing to a rebound in market prices). We expect the market to continue favoring Advantest (6857), which

12、 is likely to benefit from 5G-chipset mass production, and Anritsu (6723), which should tap tester demand for production of spring 2020 models. Also, with CIS demand expansion we maintain Sony (6758) as our top pick in consumer electronics sector.Research AnalystsAkinori Kanemoto81 3 4550 7363 HYPER

13、LINK mailto:akinori.kanemoto akinori.kanemotoHideyuki Maekawa81 3 4550 9723 HYPERLINK mailto:hideyuki.maekawa hideyuki.maekawaMika Nishimura81 3 4550 7369 HYPERLINK mailto:mika.nishimura mika.nishimuraYoshiyasu Takemura81 3 4550 7358 HYPERLINK mailto:yoshiyasu.takemura yoshiyasu.takemuraSayaka Shimo

14、nishi81 3 4550 7364 HYPERLINK mailto:sayaka.shimonishi sayaka.shimonishiDaisuke Tanimoto81 3 4550 7371 HYPERLINK mailto:daisuke.tanimoto daisuke.tanimotoTailai Qiu81 3 4550 9984 HYPERLINK mailto:tailai.qiu tailai.qiuDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALY

15、ST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that couldKey chartsFigure 1: G

16、lobal smartphone production volume (quarterly)Figure 2: Chinese smartphone production volume5660631847504041 1535 3528857532358 5820 1920 4317 88 42 41 1550 97 35 1135 10 1128 8 8 77 828 2828444516 4148 2244 16 60 16 28195860 554075 17 41 5717 151821 508043 40124051578 31 567640537940 19 3715 283270

17、 82 84 8176 7580 8087 7470 717870 697973787577 80 74 8233798886 8771129 135 139 130 160 155 160 165183 188 198152 165186 184153181 195 172 175 197 178 200 1666075 85 100 1031Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE1QECY2013CY2014CY2015CY2016CY2017CY2018CY20

18、19 CY2020mn units 50050.0%mn units 25080%45040035030025020040.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%20015010018318819818618419519720070%60%50%40%30%20%1500.0%16016016516518117217217816613915515215310%100500-10.0%-20.0%5075 856001291351001031300%-10%-20%1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

19、 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE1QECY2013CY2014CY2015CY2016CY2017CY2018CY2019CY2020China SmartphonesSamsung SmartphonesiPhoneLGE/HTCOthersYOY % Chg.Smartphone production by Chinese makersyoy % chg.Source: Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Credit Suisse estimatesProduction forecastiPhone productionAs of Sept 19As of Oc

20、t 19As of end of Nov 19CY2018CY2019CY20CY2019CY20CY2019CY20mn units1Q2Q 3Q4Q1Q2Q 3QE4QE1Q1Q2Q 3QE4QE1Q1Q2Q 3QE4QE1QiPhone5s/5c/4s0.00.0 0.00.00.00.0 0.00.00.00.00.0 0.00.00.00.00.0 0.00.00.0iPhoneSE3.81.5 2.10.00.00.0 0.00.00.00.00.0 0.00.00.00.40.0 0.00.00.0iPhoneSE New0.00.0 0.00.00.00.0 0.00.05.2

21、0.00.0 0.00.05.20.00.0 0.00.06.9iPhone66.02.5 2.10.00.00.0 0.00.00.00.00.0 0.00.00.00.00.0 0.00.00.0iPhone6 plus0.00.0 0.00.00.00.0 0.00.00.00.00.0 0.00.00.00.00.0 0.00.00.0iPhone6s3.41.5 1.44.24.31.4 2.30.20.04.31.2 1.70.60.04.31.4 1.70.60.0iPhone6s Plus1.01.2 0.61.31.40.5 0.70.10.01.40.4 0.50.20.0

22、1.40.5 0.50.20.0iPhone73.13.4 2.83.55.03.3 3.96.02.85.02.4 3.84.93.84.82.7 3.84.44.3iPhone7 Plus2.31.8 1.10.61.10.8 1.01.10.41.10.6 1.01.20.71.30.6 1.01.30.4iPhone89.010.6 8.47.65.74.1 3.74.81.65.73.2 4.56.51.55.93.2 4.55.61.0iPhone8 Plus11.08.6 6.64.72.81.3 1.11.11.92.80.9 1.52.01.43.31.0 1.51.31.0

23、iPhoneX11.68.4 4.14.31.20.6 0.00.00.01.20.6 0.00.00.04.10.6 0.00.00.0iPhoneXR0.00.0 3.327.510.013.5 11.111.90.010.013.8 8.19.05.49.213.4 10.76.25.8iPhoneXS0.00.0 10.68.92.63.6 1.52.60.02.63.0 1.72.00.72.53.0 1.71.11.9iPhoneXS Max0.00.0 13.913.02.95.0 2.20.00.02.94.9 1.80.00.02.64.9 1.80.00.0iPhone11

24、0.00.0 0.00.00.00.0 14.624.911.40.00.0 13.433.019.30.00.0 13.033.320.9iPhone11 Pro0.00.0 0.00.00.00.0 6.811.12.90.00.0 6.112.04.00.00.0 6.110.94.5iPhone11 Pro Max0.00.0 0.00.00.00.0 8.815.33.80.00.0 9.112.15.50.00.0 9.212.16.2Total51.139.5 56.975.537.134.1 57.779.030.137.131.2 53.283.647.539.831.5 5

25、5.677.053.0CYCY18CY19as of 19/9CY19as of 19/10CY19as of 19/1110.00.00.00.07.40.00.00.40.00.00.00.010.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.010.48.27.98.04.12.72.62.712.718.216.015.75.84.03.94.135.518.319.919.330.96.37.27.128.41.81.84.730.846.440.839.519.510.49.38.326.910.19.69.3-39.546.446.3-17.918.117.0-24.121.221.

26、3223.0207.9205.0203.9FY March endFY3/19FY3/20as of 19/9FY3/20as of 19/10FY3/20as of 19/110.00.00.00.04.00.00.00.00.05.25.36.94.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.011.33.93.63.84.51.31.21.314.515.914.915.24.73.33.53.332.514.115.714.423.15.55.94.820.90.60.60.640.136.436.236.122.07.77.47.729.57.26.86.80.051.065.767.

27、20.020.822.121.60.027.926.727.5211.6200.9215.4217.1Figure 3: iPhone quarterly output projections (as of Sep, Oct and Nov 2019)Source: Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 4: 5G chipset production plan (as of Dec 2019)5G SOC, BB+APAP/BB/SOCproduction forecastProduct nameProcessFoundry2019mn units2020mn unit

28、sCustomerHisiliconBalong 5000(+Kirin 980/985/710)7nm ProTSMC515HuaweiKirin 9907nm EUVTSMC1770HuaweiKirin 8207nm EUVTSMC150HuaweiKirin 1000 (3Q20)5nm EUVTSMCNANAHuaweiQualcommX50(+SDM855)8nmSamsung40Mainly China, Samsung, LGX55(+SDM865)7nm ProTSMC1160Mainly China, Samsung, LGX55(+Apple A13/14)AP5nm/7

29、nm Pro+BB7nm ProTSMC090AppleSDM7250 ($55)7nm EUVSamsung490Mainly China, Samsung, LG, othersSDM6250 (3Q20 MP)8nm?7nm?SamsungNANAMainly China, Samsung, LG, othersSamsung LSIExynos 96308nmSamsung350Samsung, Lenovo, Xiaomi, vivo5G Modem + AP7nm EUV/5nmEUVSamsung015Samsung FlagshipMediatekTotalMT6885 4Q1

30、9 MT6883 1Q20 ($48)MT6873 2Q20 ($25-30)MT6xxx Low-end 3Q207nm EUVTSMC180Mainly ChinaOPPO, Xiaomi and HuaweiTotal46520Hisilicon23135Qualcomm19240Samsung LSI365Mediatek180Source: Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 5: 5G chipset production plan (as of Sep 2019)5G SOC, BB+APAP/BB/SOCproduction forecastProduc

31、t nameProcessFoundry2019mn units2020mn unitsCustomerHisiliconBalong 5000(+Kirin 980/985/710)7nm ProTSMC515HuaweiHisiliconKirin 9907nm EUVTSMC1750HuaweiHisiliconKirin 8207nm EUVTSMC1100HuaweiQualcommX50(+SDM855)8nmSamsung40Mainly China, Samsung, LGQualcommX55(+SDM865)7nm ProTSMC1160Mainly China, Sams

32、ung, LGQualcommX55(+Apple A13/14)AP5nm/7nm Pro+BB7nm ProTSMC090AppleQualcommSDM72507nm EUVSamsung490Mainly China, Samsung, LG, othersQualcommSDM6250 (3Q20 MP)8nm?7nm?SamsungNANAMainly China, Samsung, LG, othersSamsung LSIExynos 96308nmSamsung350Samsung, Lenovo, Xiaomi, vivoSamsung LSI5G Modem + AP7n

33、m EUV/5nmEUVSamsung015Samsung FlagshipMediatekM70 SoC (1Q-2Q20), Midend SoC (3Q20)7nm EUVTSMC145Mainly ChinaTotal46515Hisilicon23165Qualcomm19240Samsung LSI365Mediatek145Source: Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 6: 5G production plan and chipset (as of Dec 2019)5G Production Plan (mn units)QCOMHiSilicon

34、Samsung LSIMediatekApple9090Samsung601545Huawei17015020OPPO602535Xiaomi452520vivo4020155Others1010000Total4751751506080Source: Credit Suisse estimatesTable of Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Key charts2 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Summary: “The 5G Rhapsody”5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Smartphones5 HYPERLI

35、NK l _TOC_250014 Tablets6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 PCs6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Devices in short supply6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Hardware production trends implications for stocks8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Electronic component sector8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Semiconductor/SPE sector8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_

36、250008 Panel, CIS sector9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Smartphone production12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 No sign of adjustment in Chinese 4G smartphones; sharp increase in 5G production schedules has phone makers racing to secure enough devices12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 iPhone production trends: Product cy

37、cle likely to change from CY2115 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Samsung smartphone production: no big changes22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Chinese smartphone production32 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 5G trends: Procurement side in a panic heading into 202069 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Others75 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000

38、 Appendix77Summary: “The 5G Rhapsody”SmartphonesSmartphone production volumeOur Japanese technology team estimates global smartphone production totaled 1,464mn units (5% YoY) in CY17 and 1,396mn (5%) in CY18. For CY19, our estimate has increased slightly from 1,332mn units (5%) at the time of the Ma

39、rch survey (1,343mn, 4% at the time of the June survey; 1,344mn, 4% at the time of the September survey) to 1,392mn (essentially flat) now. This mainly reflects stronger-than-expected production volume among Chinese smartphone manufacturers in the JunSep and OctDec quarters.We estimate quarterly pro

40、duction in CY18 at 326mn units (20% QoQ, 3% YoY) in JanMar, 336mn (+3%, 2%) in AprJun, 365mn (+9%, 4%) in JulSep, and 363mn (1%, 11%) in OctDec. Our CY19 estimates in the September survey were 306mn units (16% QoQ,7% YoY) for JanMar, 347mn (+13%, +3% ) for AprJun, 343mn (1%, 7%) for JulSep, and 347m

41、n (+1%, 5%) for OctDec. Our CY19 estimates as of the latest survey (i.e., late Nov) are 317mn units (13% QoQ, 4% YoY) for JanMar, 343mn (+8%, +2% ) for AprJun, 347mn (+1%, 6%) for JulSep, 386mn (+11%, +6%) for OctDec, and 330mn (15%,+4%) for JanMar CY20.Looking at OctDec output growth at Chinese sma

42、rtphone makers, we expect rampups ahead of the Lunar New Year, and we understand makers are building up 4G smartphone inventory now as such capacity is likely to be swiftly switched to 5G smartphone production from 2020. Forecasts for the Chinese market suggest smartphone inventory periods grew to o

43、ne month during 2019.5G-related devicesWe previously thought that planned CY20 production of 5G chipset would exceed 500mn units, and that output of 5G handsets would probably reach 250300mn units. We continue to think that planned CY20 production of 5G chipset will exceed 500mn units.However, we no

44、w think that planned production of 5G smartphones in CY20 will reach 470 480mn units, reflecting a sharp increase in planned production, particular among Chinese smartphone manufacturers, in early November.Having secured chipset supplies, the major smartphone manufacturers began sourcing other devic

45、es in the first half of November. Some suppliers of devices widely expected to be incorporated into 5G smartphones in greater numbers than in past models (e.g., power inductors and high-frequency inductors) are starting to say that they will be unable to supply a sufficient number of devices to meet

46、 customers production plans. This makes the number of 5G smartphones that can actually be produced unclear.iPhoneScheduled iPhone production volume in CY19 was 203mn units (9% YoY) as of our June survey) and 208mn units (7% YoY) as of our September survey. It is now 204mn units (9%) as of the latest

47、 survey.On a quarterly basis, scheduled production for CY19 was as follows as of early September: JanMar 37mn units (51% QoQ, 28% YoY), AprJun 34mn units (8%, 14%), JulSep58mn units (+59%, +1%), OctDec 79mn units (+37%, +5%), and JanMar CY20 30mn units. As of the present survey (late November) it is

48、 as follows: JanMar 40mn units (47% QoQ, 22% YoY), AprJun 32mn units (21%, 20%), JulSep 56mn units (+77%, 2%),OctDec 77mn units (+38%, +2%), JanMar CY20 53mn units (33%, +33%).At the time of the previous survey, we though that planned production for CY19 would probably include production volume brou

49、ght forward into OctDec to avoid higher US tariffs on China and to prepare for the Lunar New Year, which will start in late January in CY20. However, in earlyOctober Apple increased its production target for JanMar CY20 owing in part to strong iPhone 11 sales, and as of the late November survey the

50、underlying trend was the same.In CY20, Apple is likely to unveil a new iPhone SE model in early spring and three or four OLED models in autumn. We see a strong likelihood that for devices the OLED models will feature 5G compatibility (millimeter wave support in Japan and the US in particular). Moreo

51、ver, it is increasingly likely that in CY21, Apple will (as Chinese smartphone manufacturers and Samsung Electronics do with their flagship models) launch two models in the spring and two in the autumn.TabletsTablet production volume among the seven major manufacturers totaled 102mn units in CY18, a

52、nd CY19 production volume was projected to amount to 99mn units (3% YoY) as of the March survey, 101mn units (2%) as of the June survey, 102mn units (1%) as of the September survey, and 96mn units (7%) as of the present survey. iPad production volume totaled 53mn units (+3%) in CY18, and CY19 produc

53、tion volume was projected to amount to 54mn units (+2%) as of the June survey, 53mn units (unchanged) as of the September survey, and 47mn units as of the present survey. Tablet production is thus somewhat lower than expected.PCsThe major PC manufacturers each cut production volume by 12mn units in

54、the OctDec quarter owing to short supplies of Intel CPUs. Some manufacturers report that supplies will be 3040% lower than previously planned in JanMar CY20.Devices in short supplyProduction volume is up sharply at IoT module makers SunSea and Quectel, particularly in modules for narrowband IoT (NB-

55、IoT) applications. This appears driven by a government-led effort to introduce smart gas meters and fire alarms, which has resulted in tight supplies of temperature compensated crystal oscillators (TCXO) and tuning-fork crystal oscillators. To achieve true wireless stereo (TWS), many current smartph

56、one models have both AT oscillators and tuning-fork crystal oscillators for sleep mode. This seems to be exacerbating the tightness of liquid crystal device supplies. Smartphone and IT hardware manufacturers are scrambling to secure a share of liquid crystal device manufacturers production capacity.

57、For a number of 5G-related devices (including power inductors, high-frequency inductors, and MLCCs), there are concerns about supply tightness. Regarding power inductors in particular, the average count per smartphone has increased from 1520 in 4G smartphones to 3040 in 5G smartphones, reflecting an

58、 increased number of PMICs. Similarly, the average number of high-frequency coils is expected to rise from 7080 to 120170, and the average number of resistors is expected to rise from 150160 to 250320, although the exact number will differ depending on the platform. In MLCCs, relative to 4G models t

59、he number of sub-6GHz MLCCs is expected to be 1020% higher in 5G handsets and 2030% higher in milliwave handsets. Tight supplies of power inductors (among other devices) was already a concern in the JulSep quarter, but our impression now is that there is some degree of panic on the customer side in

60、the wake of flood damage at Taiyo Yudens Fukushima plant.In CISs, Samsung LSI manufactures 14/28nm-process logic ICs for CISs, but is currently prioritizing the manufacture of 14/28nm-process RFICs for 5G smartphones. As a result, supplies of logic ICs for CISs are tight. It appears increasingly lik