量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻

1、 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻(文檔含英文原文和中文翻譯) 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻翻譯：復蘇模式：中國應該對美國的量化寬松政策感到擔心嗎？美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve ）主席本伯南克（Ben Bernanke）今年 2 月在華盛頓特區(qū)發(fā)表的一次演講中談到，盡管付出了各種努力，不過，這個國家的就業(yè)率回升到危機之前 5%左右這一讓人更寬慰的水平可能還需要很長的時間。演講結束后，當被問及，目前這一輪政策在 6 月結束后，美聯(lián)儲是否有必要推出另一輪所謂的“量化寬松”（quantitative easing ，簡稱 QE）政策時，伯南克回答說

2、，“美聯(lián)儲將會按其以往的方式做出決策 ”也就是通過觀察各種經(jīng)濟指標來做出決策， 其中就包括失業(yè)率。幾個月以來，美國的失業(yè)率一直徘徊在 10%左右。如果美國的失業(yè)率持續(xù)高企，美聯(lián)儲出臺第三輪量化寬松貨幣（ QE）政策的可能性就將不斷增加。但如果美國繼續(xù)執(zhí)行 QE 政策，將會在世界各地遭致抗議，其中的代表就是中國。前兩輪量化寬松政策分別于 2009 年 3 月和 2010 年 11 月開始實施，期間，美聯(lián)儲大量印鈔用以購買銀行的債券以及抵押貸款證券 購買的目的旨在刺激美國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，降低借貸成本。但是，全球各地都能聽到這樣的批評：第二輪量化寬松政策同樣觸發(fā)了全球商品價格的急劇飆升，北京的官員對此深

3、表認同，并稱，熱錢因此流入了自己的國家。他們認為，如果出臺第三輪量化寬松政策，也將會產(chǎn)生這樣的結果。就這種擔心的理由是否充分的問題，專家各執(zhí)一詞。上海復旦大學國際經(jīng)濟學教授田素華指出，第二輪量化寬松政策對中國的影響比第一輪更大?！暗谝惠喠炕瘜捤烧咧皇峭ㄟ^貿(mào)易渠道影響到了中國， 而在實 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻施第二輪量化寬松政策期間，美國的銀行和抵押貸款公司發(fā)放信貸的能力得到了加強，所以，貨幣乘數(shù)（money multiplier ）（也稱為貨幣擴張系數(shù) 或貨幣擴張乘數(shù)）放大了中國受到的影響。 ”他談到。位于美國華盛頓特區(qū)的戰(zhàn)略和國際研究中心（ Center for Strateg

4、ic andInternational Studies ，簡稱 CSIS）的查爾斯弗雷曼（Charles Freeman ）則反駁說，第二輪量化寬松政策的主要影響是政治性的。 “它讓北京對美聯(lián)儲的美元長期政策頗感緊張，中國政府擔心，美國會長期奉行弱勢美元政策（ weak dollar policy ）?！痹温毭绹鴮χ袊聞召Q(mào)易代表助理的弗雷曼談到， “最近，中國對美國財政部和美聯(lián)儲施壓，要求它們再次保證，量化寬松只是短期政策。 ”美國財政部負責經(jīng)濟政策的前助理部長、馬里蘭大學（University of Maryland ）國際經(jīng)濟政策教授菲利普 斯瓦格（Philip Swagel ）認為，

5、第二輪量化寬松政策的總體影響，尤其是對中國的影響，并不像人們想象的那么顯著。 “中國的過度反應是毫無緣由的。 ”他談到，“總體來說，這個政策是美聯(lián)儲發(fā)出的一個信號，它不能讓美國發(fā)生通貨緊縮，并且將有積極的表現(xiàn)如果美國經(jīng)濟未能反彈。最終，這一政策對于國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟以及在國際社會造成的溢出效應也是相當有限的。 ”通貨膨脹惡化然而，盡管該政策的影響相對較小，不過，對包括中國在內(nèi)的很多經(jīng)濟體而言，溢出效應則是在一個敏感時期發(fā)生的。 上海復旦大學的金融學教授鄭輝認為，自前兩輪量化寬松政策實施以后，在全球市場流通的美元更多了，從而降低了美 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻元對其他主要貨幣的比價。他還談到，因為

6、國際商品是以美元定價的，所以，從石油到白糖，所有大宗商品的價格都上漲了。舉例來說，3 月，聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織糧食價格指數(shù) （FAO Food Price Index ）記錄一攬子食品國際價格每月變動情況的指標 平均為 230 點，比 2 月的峰值下降了 2.9%，但比去年 3 月則上漲了 37%。與此同時，石油價格則觸及到了每桶120 美元的高位，這是兩年多來的最高價格水平，當然，中東和北非地區(qū)的動蕩也是影響目前石油價格的重要因素。然而，鄭輝并不是唯一強調(diào)美聯(lián)儲這種寬松貨幣政策應該為商品價格的上漲承擔某些負責的人。正如日本銀行（ Bank of Japan）的一份報告指出的： “從全球來看，寬松的

7、貨幣政策在商品價格的迅速上漲中扮演著重要的角色，這種政策既刺激了人們對商品的實際需求，同時也促使更多的投資流向了商品市場。 ”對中國來說，商品價格的變化非常重要。在擔心公眾對能源和食品的更高支出出現(xiàn)強烈反應的時候，高企的商品價格讓這個依賴進口的經(jīng)濟體感到日子很不好過?！俺死^續(xù)從全球進口這些商品以外，中國沒有多少選擇， ”鄭輝表示，“即使原油價格和食品價格不斷攀升，中國也不太可能減少在進口這些商品上的開銷?！比欢?，馬里蘭大學的斯瓦格認為， “中國自己的貨幣政策本身就存在問題，中國通貨膨脹的最大驅動因素是中國的貨幣政策。中國一直讓人民幣保持弱勢，并與美元軟掛鉤（soft peg），從而，導致過多

8、的貨幣在這個經(jīng)濟體系中流通，并最終抬高了通貨膨脹。 ” 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻這個國家的中央銀行中國人民銀行一直在與通貨膨脹抗爭。舉例來說， 4 月初，它出臺了提高商業(yè)銀行存款準備金率的措施，以收緊信貸，同時，它還將一年期存貸款基準利率提高了 25 個基點，這是今年第二次提高基準利率， 也是自去年年初以來的第四次提高基準利率。在此期間，中國人民銀行還稱，將允許人民幣在更大范圍內(nèi)兌換，而不僅限于包括美元在內(nèi)的七種貨幣。外匯交易員認為，這一舉措有助于減少美元在決定中國貨幣價值上的權重。推卸責任對美國而言，第二輪量化寬松政策是用以提振這個國家經(jīng)濟的幾種政策杠桿之一。“因為美聯(lián)儲的職責就是

9、調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟運行，創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會以達到充分就業(yè)，所以，核心問題是，在當時，2010 年，用以加速經(jīng)濟復蘇的可用手段都是什么呢？ ”馬里蘭大學公共政策學院的麥克 戴斯勒（I. M. (Mac) Destler ）教授問道。他認為，美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)將利率保持在很低的水平了， 進一步降低利率的空間很有限。 “當時的另一個選擇是全新的經(jīng)濟刺激計劃。然而，從政治上來看似乎并不可行。所以，另一輪量化寬松政策就是僅有的幾種選擇之一了。 ”但是，第二輪量化寬松政策的出臺時機并不 “走運”，政策的推出恰好在 11 月于漢城舉辦的 G20 峰會（G20 Summit）的前幾天，戴斯勒談到。 “但是，就美國政治而言，這一時機是

10、合情合理的。美聯(lián)儲不想讓自己看起來具有黨派性，不想讓自己看似在支持民主黨政府。因此，在中期大選剛一結束，它就宣布將實施第二輪量化寬松政策，而這個時間剛好處在漢城峰會召開之前。 ”當全球領導人在漢城聚集一堂時，包括巴西、印度和韓國在內(nèi)的幾個國家，與中國一起對美國的政 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻策提出了批評?！暗诙喠炕瘜捤烧咦屆绹谂c中國關于世界經(jīng)濟重現(xiàn)平衡的爭論中只能采取守勢。因為中國對量化寬松政策感到不滿，同時，其他國家也加入了批評美聯(lián)儲舉措的陣營，所以對美國來說，在漢城峰會上讓其他國家和自己一道在貨幣升值等議題上說服中國就變得更加困難了。 ”戴斯勒認為，伯南克本來是可以通過在國內(nèi)

11、外說明出臺第二輪量化寬松政策的原由而避免遭到批評的。 “他本可以解釋清楚的是，對美聯(lián)儲來說，為刺激美國經(jīng)濟，推行第二輪量化寬松政策的舉措是必要的；此外，該政策在國際社會產(chǎn)生的溢出效應也是可以掌控的，而美國經(jīng)濟更為強勁的復蘇則會讓全世界經(jīng)濟受益?！钡谌螘哌\嗎？復旦大學的田素華告誡說，美國出臺第三輪量化寬松政策的巨大風險在于，美元的信用將會因此而受到挑戰(zhàn)。 “如果全球各個國家在進行國際貿(mào)易時避開美元，那么，美元就會回流到美國，這對美國來說會是個嚴重的問題。 ”復旦大學的鄭輝認為，如果美聯(lián)儲進一步推行寬松政策，那么，中國很可能不得不讓人民幣升值。 “第三輪量化寬松政策等同于美元的另一輪競爭性貶值

12、（competitive depreciation ）。因為人民幣與美元 軟掛鉤，所以，人民幣對其他主要貨幣的匯率也會降低。從而，日本和歐盟等中國的主要貿(mào)易伙伴就會深受不公平的貿(mào)易劣勢之苦。從這個角度來說，第三輪量化寬松政策將會對北京加快人民幣升值的步伐形成壓力。 ” 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻但是斯瓦格表示，讓人民幣進一步升值對中國的經(jīng)濟有好處。 “中國應該允許人民幣升值。強勢的人民幣可以有效降低信貸的增長， 而且能有效抑制通貨膨脹。同時，即使人民幣升值對出口部門有負面影響，中國也有其他選擇來保持其經(jīng)濟強勁增長?！备鶕?jù)“中國金融在線 ”（Finance China ）報道，最近，中國

13、國務院發(fā)展研究中心的一位資深研究員預測，人民幣升值對出口導向型企業(yè)的影響不會像很多人擔心的那么顯著。雖然出口產(chǎn)品的價格會提高，不過，人民幣升值也降低了重要部件的進口成本。至于說第三輪量化寬松政策是否會刺激熱錢流入中國的問題，最近的數(shù)據(jù)表明，該政策的影響可能很小。金融時報的中國投資參考（FT China Confidential ）2 月份發(fā)布的一份報告稱，中國外匯管理局估計，通過資本賬戶流入中國的熱錢，從 2009 年的 1 萬億美元，減少到了目前的 2，900 億美元，這表明，即便在實施量化寬松政策，中國也有能力有效控制資金的流入量。或許，第一輪、第二輪以及或許會推出的第三輪量化寬松政策更會

14、導致的結果，是世界上兩個最大經(jīng)濟體之間的口水戰(zhàn)。 “兩個國家都在為自己的問題而指責對方。”斯瓦格表示， “事實上，美國的問題并不是中國引起的，反過來，中國的問題也不是由美國造成的。 ”附注：本文摘自“賓夕法尼亞大學網(wǎng)站期刊”，發(fā)布日期 : 2011.04.13 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻原文：Recovery Mode: Should China Worry About the U.S.sQuantitative Easing?In a speech in February in Washington, D.C., Federal Reserve chairman BenBernank

15、e said that despite various efforts, it could be a long time before employmentlevels in the country return to more comfortable pre-downturn levels of around 5%.And when asked after his speech whether another round of the Feds so-calledquantitative easing would be necessary after the current round (k

16、nown as QE2)comes to an end in June, Bernanke replied, “The Fed will decide the same way italways does - by looking at various economic metrics, including the unemploymentrate, which has been hovering around 10% for some months. As the number of peopleout of work in the country remains high, it look

17、s increasingly likely that the Fed willproceed with QE3, a move likely to be met with a chorus of disapproval around theworld. Among the loudest critics: China.As under the first two rounds of quantitative easing (beginning in March 2009 andNovember 2010) the Fed would print money and use the funds

18、to buy bonds andmortgage-related securities - purchases aimed at lowering borrowing costs in the U.S.and stimulating the nations economy. But officials in Beijing have echoed criticismheard elsewhere around the world that QE2 has also triggered a sharp increase in world 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻commodity pr

19、ices and an influx of hot money into their country. They expect more ofthe same if there is a QE3. Experts are divided whether such concerns are justified.Tian Suhua, an international economics professor at Shanghai Fudan University,notes that the effect of QE2 has been greater than QE1. “The first

20、round of QE onlyaffected China through the trade channel, while in the second round, the ability of U.S.banks and mortgage companies to issue credit was strengthened, so the effect on Chinawas amplified by the money multiplier,” he says.The QE2s primary effect is political, counters Charles Freeman

21、of the Center forStrategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based public policy researchcenter. “It is causing a lot of nervousness in Beijing about the long -term policy of theFed concerning the dollar, and the Chinese administration is worried that the U.S.will pursue a long-term weak

22、 dollar policy, says Freeman, a former assistant U.S.trade representative for China affairs. Recently, China stepped up pressure on theTreasury and the Federal Reserve by asking for reassurance that QE is only ashort-term exercise.”Philip Swagel, former assistant secretary for economic policy at the

23、 TreasuryDepartment in the U.S. and professor of international economic policy at University ofMaryland, agrees that the economic impact of QE2 in general, and on China inparticular, has not been as drama tic as it is often made out to be. “Chinese rhetoric isoff the mark,” he says. “QE2 is mainly a

24、 signal that the Federal Reserve will not 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻allow deflation and would act in greater strength had the economy not rebounded.the end, it will have a modest effect on the domestic economy and the internationalspillover is also modest.”InInflation and AggravationYet even relatively small

25、, the spillover comes at a sensitive time for manyeconomies, including Chinas. Zheng Hui, finance professor at Shanghai FudanUniversity, says that since the first two rounds of quantitative easing, more U.S. dollarshave been circulating in world markets, weakening the value of the dollar against oth

26、ermajor currencies. Given that international commodities are priced in dollars, he says,everything from oil to sugar has become more expensive.In March, for example, the FAO Food Price Index - a measure of the monthlychange in the international prices of a basket of food commodities - averaged 230po

27、ints, down 2.9% from its peak in February, but 37% above March last year. Oil,meanwhile, hit $120 a barrel - the highest level in more than two years - though theturmoil in the Middle East and North Africa is the big factor influencing oil pricescurrently.Nonetheless, Zheng isnt alone in underscorin

28、g the extent to whichaccommodative policies, such as the Feds, should shoulder some of the blame for therise commodity prices. As a report by the Bank of Japan notes, “Globally,accommodative monetary conditions have played an important role in the surge in 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻commodity prices, both by

29、stimulating physical demand for commodities and bydriving more investment flows into commodity markets.”For China, that matters a lot. Its import-dependent economy is feeling the pinch ofhigher commodity prices amid concerns about major public backlashes about higherfuel and food bills. “China has f

30、ew choices but to continue importing those globalcommodities,” says Zheng. “Even if crude oil prices and food prices keep soaring,China is unlikely t o reduce its expenditures on these imports.”Yet according to University of Marylands Swagel, “Chinas own monetary policyis problematic in the first pl

31、ace and the biggest driver of inflation in China is theChinese monetary policy. The main fact is that China is maintaining a weak yuan andthe soft peg to the dollar forces China to have excessive liquidity that boosts inflation.”The countrys central bank, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), has been t

32、ryingto combat inflation. In early April, for example, it raised the required reserve ratios ofcommercial banks and tightened credit, and it raised the benchmark one-yearborrowing and lending interest rates by 25 basis points - the second time that it raisedthe benchmark interest rate this year and

33、the fourth time since the start of last year.Around the same time, the PBOC also said it will allow the renminbi to be tradedagainst a larger range of currencies than the current seven, including the U.S. dollar,which foreign exchange traders says will help reduce the greenbacks weight indetermining

34、 the Chinese currencys value. 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻Blame GameAs for the U.S., the QE2 was one of several policy levers pulled to improve thecountrys economy. “Since the responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to regulate theeconomy, create jobs and move to full employment, the central question is, what

35、 meanswere available to accelerate the recovery in 2010?” asks I. M. (Mac) Destler, aprofessor at the University of Marylands School of Public Policy. He says the Fed wasalready keeping interest rates very low, leaving little room to lower rates further.“Another option at that time was a new stimulu

36、s bill. However, it seemed to bepolitically unlikely,” he notes. “Another round of QE was one of the few choices left.”But the timing of the QE2s unveiling was unfortunate,” coming as it did justdays before the G20 Summit in Seoul in November, says Destler. But it made sense interms of U.S. politics

37、. The Fed does not want to look like it is partisan and supports aDemocratic administration. Therefore, it announced QE2 immediately after themid-term elections, which happened to be just before the Seoul summit.” When worldleaders gathered in Seoul, several countries, including Brazil, India and So

38、uth Korea,joined China in cri ticizing the U.S.s policy. “QE2 put the U.S. on the defensive inarguing with China to rebalance the world economy, he notes. Since China wasunhappy about the QE, and other countries joined it in criticizing the Feds action, itwas harder for the U.S. to get these countri

39、es to join in pushing China on other issuesat Seoul, such as the currency appreciation.” 量化寬松政策中英文對照外文翻譯文獻Destler reckons that Bernanke made a mistake in not giving a serious internationaljustification of QE2 in time, hence putting himself under international criticism. Heshould have explained that

40、it was necessary for the Federal Reserve to implement QE2to stimulate the U.S. economy, that the international spillover was manageable and theworld would benefit from a stronger U.S. recovery,” he says .Third Time Lucky?Tian of Fudan University warns that the big danger of a QE3 is that it willchal

41、lenge the credibility of the U.S. dollar. “If countries around the world bypass theU.S. dollar during international trade, dollars will flow back to the U.S and that wouldbe a serious problem for the U.S.,” he says.Zheng of Fudan University notes that in the event of further easing by the Fed,China

42、will most likely have to allow the RMB to appreciate. “A third round of QEequals another round of competiti ve depreciation of the U.S. dollar,” he says. “Sincethe RMB maintains a soft peg to the dollar, the RMBs exchange rate will alsodepreciate against other major currencies. Chinas major trading

43、partners, such asJapan and the European Union, will suffer from an unfair trade disadvantage. In thissense, a third round of QE would exert additional pressure on Beijing to allow a fasterpace of the RMB appreciation.”Enabling the RMB to appreciate further than it has in recent months might begood for Chinas economy, adds Swagel. “Chi