深挖財(cái)報(bào)之2022年半年報(bào)分析

1、業(yè)績總覽：Q2 整體盈利下行，新老能源貢獻(xiàn)利潤增速大類層面，Q2 上游原材料收入與利潤均領(lǐng)跑，中游制造利潤端提速收入端，累計(jì)同比增速持續(xù)回落，單季度同比增速同樣下滑，單季環(huán)比增速弱于季節(jié)性。累計(jì)維度，上半年，全 A 營業(yè)收入累計(jì)同比增速約 7.9%，較 Q1 下滑 3.6%；全 A 非金融增速約 9.2%，下滑近 5.5%；全 A 非金融石油石化增速約 8.4%，下滑近 5.5%；統(tǒng)計(jì)局工業(yè)企業(yè)增速約 9.1%，下滑近 3.6%。單季維度，22Q2 全 A、全 A 非金融、全 A 非金融石油石化營業(yè)收入當(dāng)季同比增速分別為 6.2%、6.8%、6.1%，增速較 22Q1 分別下滑 5.3%、7.

2、9%、7.7%。圖 1：2022Q2 營收累計(jì)同比增速持續(xù)下行圖 2：22Q2 全 A 單季度營收同比增速較 22Q1 下滑60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%全A營業(yè)收入累計(jì)同比全A非金融全A非金融石油石化統(tǒng)計(jì)局工業(yè)企業(yè)全A非金融石油石化全A非金融全A營業(yè)收入當(dāng)季同比60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%，所注：2018 年以前工業(yè)企業(yè)營業(yè)收入口徑為主營業(yè)務(wù)收入，所圖 3：22Q2 全 A 營收單季環(huán)比增速弱于季節(jié)性全A營業(yè)收入Q2單季環(huán)比5%0%6% 8%8%9% 9%9%10%11%11%13%12%14%15%15%20%20%25%，所大類板塊上

3、，22Q2 各大類板塊營收同比增速較 22Q1 均邊際下行，僅上游原材料營收增速處于 2010 年以來較高水平。其中，上游原材料第二季度營收同比增速最高，為 18.6%，位于 2010 年以來的 63%分位水平，但其增速已較上個(gè)季度邊際下滑 8.5 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；下游可選消費(fèi)第二季度營收同比增速最低，為-6.9%，僅位于 2010 年以來的 2%分位水平；支持服務(wù)第二季度營收同比增速較上個(gè)季度邊際下滑最為明顯，下滑幅度達(dá) 10.6 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；中游制造、下游必選消費(fèi)、金融房建 22Q2 營收同比增速分別為 5.4%、5.6%、1.5%，較 22Q1 分別邊際下滑 5.9、 3.4、1.8 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

4、表 1：22Q2，各大類板塊營收同比增速較 22Q1 均邊際下行，僅上游原材料營收增速處于 2010 年以來較高水平大類板塊業(yè)績2022Q2單季營收同單季增速變化比增速（ 22Q2-22Q1)22Q2營收增速2010年來分位22Q1營收增速2010年來分位單季度營收同比增速變化上游原材料18.6%-8.5%63%75%中游制造5.4%-5.9%10%48%下游必選消費(fèi)5.6%-3.4%8%27%下游可選消費(fèi)-6.9%-6.2%2%13%金融房建1.5%-1.8%6%6%支持服務(wù)4.1%-10.6%12%60%，所利潤端，累計(jì)同比增速持續(xù)下行，單季度同比增速同樣下滑，單季環(huán)比增速弱于季節(jié)性。累計(jì)

5、維度，上半年，全 A 凈利潤累計(jì)同比增速約 1.3%，較 Q1 下滑近 2.1%；全 A 非金融增速約 1.0%，下滑近 7.7%；全 A 非金融石油石化增速約-0.6%，下滑近 5.2%；統(tǒng)計(jì)局工業(yè)企業(yè)增速約 1.0%，下滑近 7.5%。單季維度，22Q2 全 A、全 A 非金融、全 A 非金融石油石化當(dāng)季同比增速分別為 0.4%、-2.7%、-3.2%，增速較 22Q1 分別下滑 3.0%、11.4%、7.7%。圖 4：2022Q2 全 A 歸母凈利潤累計(jì)同比增速繼續(xù)下行圖 5：22Q2 全 A 單季度凈利潤同比增速較 22Q1 邊際下滑200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%

6、全A歸母凈利潤累計(jì)同比全A非金融全A非金融石油石化統(tǒng)計(jì)局工業(yè)企業(yè)全A非金融石油石化全A非金融全A歸母凈利潤單季同比200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%Wind，所注：工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤口徑為利潤總額， 所圖 6：22Q2 全 A 歸母凈利潤單季環(huán)比增速弱于季節(jié)性全A歸母凈利潤Q2單季環(huán)比5%0%6%5% 9%7%7%7%10% 10% 11% 10% 10% 15%16%20%22%22%25%，所大類板塊上，22Q2 上游原材料、中游制造利潤端增速領(lǐng)先，支持服務(wù)、下游可選消費(fèi)利潤端錄得負(fù)增長，中游制造單季度歸母凈利潤同比增速邊際提升幅度最大。上游原材料與中游制造的利潤端增速在 22

7、Q2 仍然領(lǐng)跑各大類板塊，但由于部分大宗商品第二季度價(jià)格相比第一季度有明顯下跌，上游原材料 Q2 增速較 Q1 有所收斂，而受益于新能源領(lǐng)域高景氣，中游制造 Q2 增速則有明顯提升。支持服務(wù) 22Q2 歸母凈利潤同比增速相比 Q1 下滑 23.4%，主要系航空公司在疫情、油價(jià)、匯率的三重壓制下，第二季度錄得巨額虧損。在疫情擾動下，下游可選消費(fèi) 22Q2 歸母凈利潤同比下滑 18.6%，同比跌幅較 Q1 進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。下游必選消費(fèi)和金融房建板塊 22Q2 歸母凈利潤增速分別為 0.2%、-0.4%，增速較 Q1分別邊際提升 3.6%、1.3%。表 2：22Q2 上游原材料、中游制造利潤端增速領(lǐng)先，

8、支持服務(wù)的同比增速邊際下滑最為明顯大類板塊業(yè)績2022Q2單季歸母凈單季增速變化利潤同比增速（ 22Q2-22Q1)22Q2單季凈利潤增速2010年來分位22Q1利潤增速2010年來分位單季度歸母凈利潤同比增速變化上游原材料18.4%-18.6%55.1%68.7%中游制造11.9%8.0%51.0%41.6%下游必選消費(fèi)0.2%3.6%18.3%6.2%下游可選消費(fèi)-18.6%-2.3%6.1%6.2%金融房建-0.4%1.3%14.2%12.5%支持服務(wù)-30.7%-23.4%12.2%33.3%，所行業(yè)層面，新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈與傳統(tǒng)能源行業(yè)共舞，利潤分布更為集中一級行業(yè)層面，22Q2 電力設(shè)備

9、、煤炭、石油石化行業(yè)景氣維持，農(nóng)林牧漁、非銀金融困境改善。營收方面：1）22Q2 電力設(shè)備、石油石化、煤炭、基礎(chǔ)化工營收增速領(lǐng)先，且對全 A 整且其對全 A 營收同比變化的貢獻(xiàn)度較Q1 提升了 7.6%，主要系以光伏、鋰電為代表的新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈仍然維持了高景氣，較多龍頭公司的營收在 Q2 同比翻倍增長；石油石化、煤炭、基礎(chǔ)化工營收同比增速分別為 27.6%、26.0%、24.9%，對全 A營收同比變化的貢獻(xiàn)度較 Q1 分別提升了 15.2%、3.4%、5.8%，其中，煤炭方面， Q2 雖受淡季和疫情擾動影響，但在進(jìn)口煤補(bǔ)充不足、供給仍偏緊的背景下，動力煤價(jià)格仍高位運(yùn)行，焦煤價(jià)格雖在 Q2 下游需

10、求轉(zhuǎn)弱背景下小幅承壓，但仍高于往年同期，故煤炭行業(yè) Q2 收入仍保持較高增長；石油石化方面，受益于 Q2 國際油價(jià)繼續(xù)在高位震蕩運(yùn)行，行業(yè)內(nèi)公司營收表現(xiàn)亮眼。2）22Q2 農(nóng)林牧漁、非銀金融、美容護(hù)理營收端邊際修復(fù)。22Q2，隨著上海復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)推進(jìn)以及部分養(yǎng)殖戶短期壓欄，豬肉需求回暖疊加供給邊際收緊帶動豬價(jià)修復(fù)，農(nóng)林牧漁行業(yè)營收端恢復(fù)正增長。非銀金融方面，營收規(guī)模較大的保險(xiǎn)公司在Q2 小幅正增長推動行業(yè)整體營收增速修復(fù)。圖 7：Q2 電力設(shè)備、石油石化、煤炭、基礎(chǔ)化工行業(yè)營收增速領(lǐng)先，石油石化、電力設(shè)備、非銀金融營收貢獻(xiàn)度邊際提升大3.4%15.2%-3-8-0-8-4.2%-3.7%-0.4%

11、0.0%2.1%0.2%-1.0%-1.1%.7%1.4%3.2%6.5%0.8%-9.2%-0.2%.2%-71-123.8%-8.2%-1613.4%-3.5%1.7%0.0%0.0%-0.5%-11.4%-9.7%-1.9%-3.2%-1622.6%6.2%11.5%6.4%-104.9%-5.4%0.2%-0.4%.8%.3%.4%.7%.9%.0%-523.9%18.1%1.3%-0.6%-5.1%-1.3%-1.7%-0.5%6.1%7.4%交通運(yùn)輸商貿(mào)零售計(jì)算機(jī) 綜合支持服務(wù)公用事業(yè)環(huán)保15.1%7.3%14.5%14.2%-4-11.1%-15.6%-4.0%-13.2%.5%

12、.5%.9%-15.6%4.1%5.1%6.0%8-7.2%0.9% -5.7%0.8%非銀金融銀行 房地產(chǎn) 建筑裝飾金融房建-29.7%-25-8-0.3%0.0%-1.6%-0.6%-5.6%-3.7%-4.0%-12.9%-12.2%-7-2.2%-9.8%-60.8%1.4%.2%.4%.4%.5%.6%8.7%7.2%0.6%0.8%0.9%.3%7-10.2%7.5%7.5%0.1%0.3%-0.5%-7.6%-1.4%-0.6%0.1%0.2%美容護(hù)理輕工制造家用電器汽車傳媒 社會服務(wù)下游可選消費(fèi)4.4%-1.8%-60.8%-0.3%-613.1%4.2%7.3%.6%.7%.

13、2%1.2%7-1-0.1%7.5%5.8%6.4%0.0%2.1%農(nóng)林牧漁食品飲料醫(yī)藥生物紡織服飾下游必選消費(fèi)-511.4%-914.0%5.0%5.5%1.5%0.7%1.1%0.7%-2.7%-7.5%-4-4.0%-5-6.7%-12.3%-0.7%-0.3%-4.9%.4%.7%.7%.0%.9%43.4%35.0%7.6%10.5%18.2%電力設(shè)備機(jī)械設(shè)備電子 通信國防軍工中游制造業(yè)-1016.3%6.2%1.4%1.3%27.6%15.7%-1110.0%11.5%-105.1%-5.4%-5.4%1.6%-0.1%1.9%-3.5%25.1%24.9%5.8%6.3%12.1

14、%35.8%30.1%45.3%.5%.2%.3%.5%.9%.0%29.5%26.0%27.6%5.4%8.8%煤炭石油石化基礎(chǔ)化工鋼鐵有色金屬建筑材料上游原材料Q2-Q1同比22Q1同比22Q2同比Q2-Q1貢獻(xiàn)度變動同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度22Q2各行業(yè)對營收22Q1各行業(yè)對營收一級行業(yè)營業(yè)收入（單季同比） ，所注：各行業(yè)營收同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度=（各行業(yè)本期營收-去年同期營收）/ABS（全 A 本期營收-去年同期營收），下同凈利潤方面：1）22Q2 煤炭、石油石化、電力設(shè)備利潤端增速在 Q1 高位背景下仍有提升，農(nóng)林牧漁、非銀金融的利潤端增速則較 Q1 的不佳表現(xiàn)有明顯改善。Q1 歸母凈

15、利潤同比增速為正，且 Q2 增速與貢獻(xiàn)度均較 Q1 邊際提升的行業(yè)僅有煤炭、石油石化、電力設(shè)備、通信、家用電器，其中，通信與家用電器行業(yè)主要系個(gè)別公司影響，行業(yè)共性較低，例如，通信行業(yè)歸母凈利潤總量受中國移動影響較大，且*ST賽道的家電零部件企業(yè)業(yè)績增速較高。Q1 歸母凈利潤負(fù)增長，但 Q2 增速轉(zhuǎn)正、且貢獻(xiàn)度較 Q1 邊際提升的行業(yè)有農(nóng)林牧漁、非銀金融，豬價(jià)邊際回暖、保險(xiǎn)及證券公司盈利的弱修復(fù)助力行業(yè)逐步走出困境。2）22Q2 鋼鐵、建筑材料、電子、紡織服飾、汽車、傳媒、社會服務(wù)、房地產(chǎn)利潤端增速較 Q1 的不佳表現(xiàn)仍有惡化。Q1 歸母凈利潤負(fù)增長，且Q2 增速與貢獻(xiàn)度均較 Q1 邊際下滑的

16、行業(yè)為鋼鐵、建筑材料、電子、紡織服飾、汽車、傳媒、社會服務(wù)、房地產(chǎn)，行業(yè)周期下行背景下的需求持續(xù)疲軟（地產(chǎn)鏈：鋼鐵、建材、房地產(chǎn)）和疫情擾動（汽車、電子、傳媒、社會服務(wù)）是拖累以上行業(yè) Q2業(yè)績表現(xiàn)的兩條重要線索。圖 8：凈利潤方面，22Q2 煤炭、石油石化、電力設(shè)備利潤端增速在 Q1 高位背景下仍有提升歸母凈利潤（單季同比） 一級行業(yè)22Q2各行業(yè)對凈利潤同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度22Q1各行業(yè)對凈利潤同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度Q2-Q1貢獻(xiàn)度變動22Q2同比22Q1同比Q2-Q1同比煤炭599.5% 58.6%540.9%109.0%82.9%26.0%上游原材料中游制造業(yè)下游必選消費(fèi)下游可選消費(fèi)金融房建支持服務(wù)

17、，所石油石化基礎(chǔ)化工鋼鐵有色金屬建筑材料電力設(shè)備機(jī)械設(shè)備電子通信 國防和軍工農(nóng)林牧漁食品飲料醫(yī)藥生物紡織服飾美容護(hù)理輕工制造家用電器汽車傳媒社會服務(wù)非銀金融銀行房地產(chǎn) 建筑裝飾公用事業(yè)環(huán)保交通運(yùn)輸商貿(mào)零售計(jì)算機(jī) 綜合225.0%34.5%126.8% 33.3%-465.4%-14.6%292.5%50.7%-91.5%-2.5%368.8%26.3%-105.1%-14.3%-162.1%-4.4%108.7%3.1%0.1%2.1%47.8%-66.1%46.7%20.1%-60.3%31.7%-30.8%1.6%-1.5%-1.0%-55.4%-10.0%47.6%4.3%-109.5%

18、-12.3%-75.1%-5.3%-33.1%-2.0%15.5%-114.0%388.7%96.1%-465.5%-18.2%23.2%10.2%-31.5%-17.7%-5.0%-2.7%-410.8%24.2%-18.6%-2.9%-70.3%-8.0%-5.6%-0.9%190.5%93.6%-450.8%241.8%-89.0%342.5%-90.8%-157.8%105.6%-2.0%113.8%26.6%-92.0%-32.5%-0.5%-45.5%43.2%-97.2%-69.7%-31.1%129.5%292.6%-447.3%13.0%-13.8%-2.2%-435.0%-

19、15.7%-62.3%-4.7%26.1%8.3%-70.1%71.8%-30.0%117.6%-26.5%-29.1%401.4%0.1%129.8%7.9%-2.8%-34.4%-9.3%-25.5%15.6%-25.7%-31.9%-218.5%1.1%6.3%-71.1%3.0%-6.6%-9.4%-47.6%20.7%-44.6%157.5%26.0%27.6%-27.9%124.2%-17.2%33.6%-28.0%-13.3%23.3%10.7%-197.3%18.2%27.8%-15.8%-27.5%-40.1%12.6%-15.0%-19.0%-37.8%-39.9%8.6%

20、-34.8%11.4%-30.6%-18.5%44.7%-10.0%-91.6%-141.7%0.1%-19.3%-42.2%-52.4%-12.9%84.0%1.5%-15.9%378.1%-10.7%327.2%-10.3%-30.7%-18.7%18.2%14.6%3.1%-10.7%-12.9%-180.7%41.0%-2.3%-36.3%-8.4%24.0%9.1%-92.3%30.7%47.0%299.2%注：各行業(yè)歸母凈利潤同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度=（各行業(yè)本期歸母凈利潤-去年同期歸母凈利潤）/ABS（全 A 本期歸母凈利潤-去年同期歸母凈利潤），下同二級行業(yè)層面，22Q2 光伏設(shè)備、農(nóng)產(chǎn)

21、品加工、調(diào)味發(fā)酵品、個(gè)護(hù)用品在營收與凈利潤維度均較 22Q1 有較為明顯的積極邊際變動，此外，22Q2 煤炭開采在利潤端景氣度繼續(xù)提升、能源金屬在收入端增速提升明顯。營收層面，光伏設(shè)備、能源金屬、化學(xué)原料、燃?xì)?22Q2 對營收同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度較 22Q1 提升較為明顯。同時(shí)考慮邊際貢獻(xiàn)度變動、邊際增速變動、以及 22Q2同比增速所處的歷史分位，我們篩選了 22Q2 對營收同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度為正、且較22Q1 正向提升、22Q2 同比增速較 22Q1 提升幅度不低于 5%、22Q2 同比增速凈利潤層面，煤炭開采、保險(xiǎn)、光伏設(shè)備、通信設(shè)備 22Q2 對凈利潤同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度較 22Q1 提升較為明顯。同

22、時(shí)考慮邊際貢獻(xiàn)度變動、邊際增速變動、以及 22Q2 同比增速所處的歷史分位，我們篩選了 22Q2 對凈利潤同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度為正、且較 22Q1 正向提升、22Q2 同比增速較 22Q1 提升幅度不低于 5%、22Q2同比增速位于 2010 年來 50%+分位的二級行業(yè)。表 3：22Q2 營收同比增速與貢獻(xiàn)度較 22Q1 均有相對明顯邊際改善的二級行業(yè)63%67%23.3%9.0%5.7%28.7%14.0%10.9%7.4%13.2%1.8%1.5%69%0.13%0.09%11.0%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.05%0.05%0.9%11.8%-0.02

23、%0.00%0.16%27.2%-5.0%59%61%0.27%9.8%12.2%0.42%10.2%23.4%22.0%22.2%90%15.0%52%0.22%0.21%8.0%7.6%18.9%0.44%1.13%0.83%0.60%29.0%43.0%82%-0.66%0.13%-9.0%19.7%0.38%1.20%9.4%15.1%57%1.0%33.7%42.7%98%7.5%30.8%82%0.74%1.06%1.19%2.50%2.53%2.19%44.7%52.1%96.8%96%5.1%3.47%8.53%14.5%63.9%78.4%100%光伏設(shè)備能源金屬化學(xué)原料燃?xì)?/p>

24、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工養(yǎng)殖業(yè) 焦炭 造紙專業(yè)連鎖 調(diào)味發(fā)酵品種植業(yè)個(gè)護(hù)用品漁業(yè)Q2-Q1貢獻(xiàn)度變動比變化貢獻(xiàn)度比變化貢獻(xiàn)度22Q2各行業(yè)對營收同 22Q1各行業(yè)對營收同Q2-Q1同比22Q1同比22Q2同比22Q2同比增速2010年來分位營業(yè)收入（單季同比），所表 4：22Q2 歸母凈利潤同比增速與貢獻(xiàn)度較 22Q1 均有相對明顯邊際改善的二級行業(yè)Wind，所營業(yè)收入22Q2同比增速Q(mào)2-Q122Q2各行業(yè)對營收同比變 22Q1各行業(yè)對營收同比變（單季同比）2010年來分位22Q2同比22Q1同比同比化貢獻(xiàn)度化貢獻(xiàn)度Q2-Q1貢獻(xiàn)度變動煉化及貿(mào)易76%27.8%36.3%-8.6%43.6%29.8%13

25、.8%保險(xiǎn)24%3.8%-4.8%8.5%3.0%-3.3%6.3%光伏設(shè)備00%78.4%63.9%14.5%8.5%3.5%5.1%電池94%83.2%90.2%-7.1%8.9%4.8%4.1%消費(fèi)電子53%22.8%18.6%4.1%5.4%2.4%3.0%煤炭開采65%24.5%29.6%-5.0%7.6%5.0%2.6%農(nóng)化制品88%38.5%36.6%1.9%4.1%2.0%2.1%化學(xué)制品69%28.9%29.4%-0.6%4.4%2.4%2.0%基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)59%11.0%15.9%-4.8%9.6%7.8%1.8%能源金屬96%96.8%52.1%44.7%2.5%0.7%1.

26、8%化學(xué)原料82%30.8%7.5%23.3%2.5%1.1%1.5%燃?xì)?8%42.7%33.7%9.0%2.2%1.2%1.0%農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工57%15.1%9.4%5.7%1.2%0.4%0.8%養(yǎng)殖業(yè)63%19.7%-9.0%28.7%0.1%-0.7%0.8%焦炭82%43.0%29.0%14.0%1.1%0.4%0.7%油服工程78%20.3%19.3%1.1%1.2%0.5%0.7%證券20%-10.4%-29.2%18.8%-1.8%-2.5%0.7%醫(yī)療服務(wù)43%27.3%37.1%-9.9%1.4%0.8%0.7%造紙67%18.9%8.0%10.9%0.8%0.2%0.6%城

27、商行24%11.0%8.3%2.7%1.1%0.5%0.6%航空裝備79%17.5%17.8%-0.3%1.0%0.4%0.6%小金屬41%17.8%23.9%-6.0%2.0%1.4%0.6%電網(wǎng)設(shè)備47%15.3%28.7%-13.4%2.2%1.7%0.4%特鋼51%12.3%14.9%-2.6%1.0%0.6%0.4%專業(yè)連鎖52%15.0%7.6%7.4%0.6%0.2%0.4%專業(yè)工程45%12.0%26.0%-14.0%2.9%2.5%0.3%食品加工5%-4.6%-19.3%14.7%-0.2%-0.5%0.3%調(diào)味發(fā)酵品90%23.4%10.2%13.2%0.4%0.1%0.

28、3%水泥31%11.7%23.6%-11.9%1.4%1.1%0.3%軟件開發(fā)24%12.7%19.1%-6.4%0.8%0.5%0.2%金屬新材料80%46.8%55.5%-8.6%0.7%0.5%0.2%非金屬材料84%68.0%86.0%-18.0%0.5%0.3%0.2%互聯(lián)網(wǎng)電商6%-28.1%-43.2%15.1%-1.8%-2.0%0.2%航運(yùn)港口73%24.3%42.8%-18.6%3.6%3.4%0.2%中藥12%2.7%2.0%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.2%種植業(yè)69%22.0%12.2%9.8%0.3%0.1%0.2%個(gè)護(hù)用品59%22.2%-5.0%27.2%0.2%

29、0.0%0.2%飼料24%7.2%8.9%-1.6%0.4%0.2%0.2%國有大型銀行18%4.2%6.2%-2.0%3.8%3.6%0.2%半導(dǎo)體24%13.2%23.5%-10.3%1.4%1.2%0.1%軌交設(shè)備28%-4.2%-21.2%17.0%-0.4%-0.5%0.1%通信服務(wù)51%6.4%7.9%-1.5%0.6%0.4%0.1%家電零部件27%3.3%30.8%-27.5%0.5%0.4%0.1%橡膠76%22.0%17.0%4.9%0.2%0.1%0.1%航天裝備62%19.4%15.5%3.9%0.1%0.1%0.1%摩托車及其他52%9.6%18.7%-9.2%0.2

30、%0.1%0.1%動物保健47%7.9%-17.4%25.4%0.0%0.0%0.1%電力53%14.1%22.2%-8.2%4.6%4.6%0.1%玻璃玻纖14%1.9%5.6%-3.8%0.2%0.1%0.1%專業(yè)服務(wù)73%24.8%34.6%-9.8%0.2%0.1%0.1%漁業(yè)61%11.8%0.9%11.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%農(nóng)商行16%4.4%4.6%-0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%地面兵裝52%9.8%20.7%-10.9%0.1%0.1%0.0%飲料乳品16%6.9%10.8%-4.0%0.3%0.3%0.0%環(huán)保設(shè)備33%9.3%13.6%-4.3%0.1%0.1%0

31、.0%數(shù)字媒體27%-3.2%-15.5%12.3%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%醫(yī)藥商業(yè)6%4.1%7.4%-3.3%0.9%0.9%0.0%照明設(shè)備45%8.9%17.0%-8.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%非白酒57%4.3%7.4%-3.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%游戲20%3.7%4.8%-1.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%林業(yè)59%18.4%18.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%休閑食品13%0.5%1.0%-0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%電子化學(xué)品51%19.1%33.4%-14.3%0.1%0.2%0.0%文娛用品20%0.7%3.9%-3.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%自動化設(shè)

32、備14%3.5%16.3%-12.8%0.3%0.3%0.0%冶鋼原料51%9.0%25.7%-16.7%0.2%0.2%0.0%股份制銀行14%2.1%3.6%-1.5%0.8%0.9%-0.1%工程咨詢服務(wù)10%-10.0%-5.7%-4.3%-0.1%0.0%-0.1%化妝品8%-3.0%7.1%-10.1%0.0%0.1%-0.1%廚衛(wèi)電器4%-5.0%8.3%-13.3%0.0%0.0%-0.1%出版24%1.4%8.7%-7.3%0.0%0.1%-0.1%貴金屬69%21.5%31.2%-9.7%1.1%1.2%-0.1%小家電12%1.5%12.6%-11.2%0.1%0.2%-

33、0.1%房地產(chǎn)服務(wù)6% -9.2%4.1%-13.2%-0.1%0.0%-0.1%包裝印刷6%1.1%9.5%-8.5%0.0%0.2%-0.1%電機(jī)14%3.6%23.6%-20.0%0.1%0.2%-0.1%紡織制造24%2.4%14.2%-11.7%0.1%0.2%-0.1%塑料16%2.5%13.1%-10.6%0.2%0.3%-0.1%軍工電子8%-0.4%8.5%-8.9%0.0%0.1%-0.1%電視廣播14%-11.1%0.6%-11.6%-0.1%0.0%-0.1%酒店餐飲6%-22.1%-1.4%-20.6%-0.1%0.0%-0.1%化學(xué)纖維18%-0.3%14.9%-1

34、5.1%0.1%0.2%-0.2%鐵路公路29%-0.7%3.2%-3.8%0.0%0.1%-0.2%元件18%3.5%11.1%-7.6%0.1%0.3%-0.2%教育6%-23.8%-11.1%-12.7%-0.3%-0.1%-0.2%物流14%10.9%23.8%-12.8%7.9%8.1%-0.2%家居用品16%2.5%10.4%-7.9%0.0%0.2%-0.2%化學(xué)制藥6%-0.1%3.3%-3.4%0.1%0.3%-0.2%白色家電27%4.2%10.1%-5.9%1.0%1.2%-0.3%黑色家電4%-11.9%-12.4%0.5%-0.7%-0.4%-0.3%風(fēng)電設(shè)備29%-

35、2.2%12.1%-14.4%-0.1%0.2%-0.3%旅游及景區(qū)6%-54.9%-28.0%-26.9%-0.3%0.0%-0.3%生物制品8%8.7%37.0%-28.3%0.1%0.4%-0.3%影視院線10%-43.0%-14.4%-28.6%-0.5%-0.1%-0.4%專用設(shè)備33%1.5%10.2%-8.7%0.2%0.6%-0.4%飾品18%-4.5%9.3%-13.8%-0.2%0.2%-0.4%裝修建材3%-4.6%6.8%-11.3%-0.3%0.1%-0.4%多元金融16%-7.6%-2.5%-5.2%-0.3%0.1%-0.4%白酒31%10.6%19.4%-8.8

36、%0.7%1.1%-0.4%綜合6%-8.2%3.8%-12.0%-0.5%0.0%-0.5%通信設(shè)備29%4.3%20.8%-16.5%0.5%1.0%-0.5%貿(mào)易20%-5.9%-3.4%-2.5%-0.7%-0.2%-0.6%航海裝備14%-13.4%4.4%-17.8%-0.5%0.0%-0.6%服裝家紡2%-10.8%-3.0%-7.8%-0.3%0.3%-0.6%環(huán)境治理0%-7.7%3.4%-11.1%-0.5%0.1%-0.6%一般零售17%-4.2%-1.3%-2.9%-0.6%0.1%-0.7%裝修裝飾3% -21.6%-5.6%-15.9%-0.8%-0.1%-0.7%

37、計(jì)算機(jī)設(shè)備14%-6.8%13.5%-20.2%-0.3%0.5%-0.8%廣告營銷0%-21.3%-10.3%-11.0%-1.1%-0.3%-0.8%工業(yè)金屬52%10.8%23.3%-12.6%5.2%6.3%-1.1%其他電源設(shè)備0%-13.3%10.3%-23.6%-0.8%0.3%-1.1%IT服務(wù)2%-4.1%13.7%-17.8%-0.5%0.7%-1.2%汽車服務(wù)2%-26.9%-19.3%-7.6%-2.1%-0.8%-1.3%醫(yī)療器械12%9.5%49.5%-39.9%0.5%1.9%-1.4%通用設(shè)備24%1.0%13.0%-12.0%-0.5%0.9%-1.4%汽車零

38、部件2%-9.0%-5.9%-3.1%-2.1%-0.7%-1.4%房屋建設(shè)10%2.5%13.1%-10.6%2.5%4.4%-1.9%商用車0%-48.9%-43.5%-5.3%-5.3%-3.1%-2.2%工程機(jī)械0%-35.6%-28.3%-7.3%-4.4%-1.9%-2.4%乘用車12%-1.6%10.9%-12.5%-0.5%2.1%-2.6%光學(xué)光電子0%-13.6%3.3%-16.9%-2.5%0.3%-2.8%1其他電子4%-80.9%-85.3%4.5%-8.5% -4.8%-3.7%航空機(jī)場2%-51.5%-6.1%-45.5%-5.1%-0.2%-4.8%普鋼16%-

39、7.8%3.7%-11.6%-4.6%1.1%-5.7%房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)0%-15.8%-12.4%-3.4%-13.0%-4.0%-9.0%Wind，所歸母凈利潤（單季同比） 22Q2同比增速2010年來分位22Q2同比22Q1同比Q2-Q1同比22Q2各行業(yè)對凈利潤同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度22Q1各行業(yè)對凈利潤同比變化貢獻(xiàn)度Q2-Q1貢獻(xiàn)度變動，所煤炭開采 航運(yùn)港口 煉化及貿(mào)易保險(xiǎn)光伏設(shè)備能源金屬國有大型銀行農(nóng)化制品通信設(shè)備養(yǎng)殖業(yè) 電池股份制銀行 其他電源設(shè)備醫(yī)療服務(wù)城商行 工業(yè)金屬 基礎(chǔ)建設(shè) 電網(wǎng)設(shè)備 白色家電 消費(fèi)電子 互聯(lián)網(wǎng)電商小金屬貴金屬白酒其他電子專業(yè)工程 多元金融調(diào)味發(fā)酵品家電零部件農(nóng)商行農(nóng)產(chǎn)

40、品加工金屬新材料油服工程 電機(jī)專用設(shè)備冶鋼原料醫(yī)藥商業(yè)電子化學(xué)品飼料航空裝備軌交設(shè)備個(gè)護(hù)用品 地面兵裝非白酒非金屬材料自動化設(shè)備 摩托車及其他食品加工小家電 航天裝備黑色家電教育 數(shù)字媒體專業(yè)連鎖橡膠林業(yè)漁業(yè)文娛用品 照明設(shè)備環(huán)境治理 化學(xué)制品 紡織制造 塑料環(huán)保設(shè)備專業(yè)服務(wù) 貿(mào)易動物保健 工程咨詢服務(wù)種植業(yè)出版廚衛(wèi)電器焦炭軍工電子休閑食品 化學(xué)制藥 飾品化妝品 綜合 化學(xué)原料風(fēng)電設(shè)備房地產(chǎn)服務(wù)玻璃玻纖 元件航海裝備包裝印刷 物流汽車服務(wù)飲料乳品廣告營銷家居用品酒店餐飲 IT服務(wù)燃?xì)?通信服務(wù)電力計(jì)算機(jī)設(shè)備旅游及景區(qū)半導(dǎo)體電視廣播裝修建材 影視院線 房屋建設(shè)裝修裝飾通用設(shè)備 乘用車游戲 一般零

41、售造紙服裝家紡化學(xué)纖維特鋼 中藥汽車零部件商用車軟件開發(fā)醫(yī)療器械證券 水泥鐵路公路 生物制品 工程機(jī)械 光學(xué)光電子普鋼房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)航空機(jī)場90%117.7%47%42.9%65%24.4%53%12.0%82%155.8%78%411.1%39%4.6%63%77.1%98%499.0%18%-142.6%69%74.3%35%7.5%93%121.8%84%78.3%45%14.5%41%20.1%62%16.1%73%24.1%35%14.7%45%16.4%78%74.4%48%46.3%100%2114.8%37%12.9%86%108.3%62%19.3%51%14.6%73%44.9

42、%86%70.0%53%14.9%65%26.2%53%50.0%63%28.7%55%57.6%51%9.2%47%10.7%22%6.3%36%9.7%35%-7.7%38%1.6%45%4.6%51%25.1%55%33.7%45%7.5%54%20.7%35%-4.2%59%35.2%26%3.9%53%12.1%59%18.4%39%4.5%22%-60.8%55%12.0%48%9.2%33%-11.3%37%-69.0%49%-3.3%39%-7.8%31%-11.8%20%-9.8%35%1.8%31%-3.3%31%-9.1%24%-6.7%31%-15.1%37%-3.9%

43、16%-32.4%18%-22.9%27%-70.0%24%-4.1%6%-13.4%47%-4.7%29%4.9%12%-33.7%31%1.8%22%-28.9%6%-36.9%88%157.5%35%20.8%39%-8.6%22%-94.2%14%-45.4%24%-3.4%17%-161.7%8%-31.8%35%4.9%29%-45.4%20%-12.0%37%-21.3%39%6.4%4%-192.2%14%-19.6%14%-25.7%47%15.1%39%-4.6%51%19.6%4%-285.0%27%1.0%6%-79.8%17%-33.4%2%-243.1%10%-7.

44、4%7%-158.7%57%15.4%29%-10.3%8%-32.9%29%-32.5%24%-51.8%4%-92.0%24%-53.7%29%-30.2%10%-24.6%16%-23.1%6%-117.4%4%-96.7%16%-3.7%31%-12.4%17%-26.6%4%-35.4%4%-37.4%18%-63.0%10%-90.9%20%-76.9%2%-73.0%0%-7583.2%94.4%65.8%25.5%-36.3%80.6%544.0%7.3%132.1%18.2%-220.6%76.0%9.4%-32.3%11.5%15.0%63.8%14.5%-3.0%15.3

45、%-14.7%-200.1%119.1%70.7%26.3%127.3%17.3%-43.5%12.7%5.2%13.6%-51.4%58.6%1.5%66.5%38.4%37.6%-18.2%74.6%-137.7%37.2%-61.2%-43.3%41.9%12.0%111.8%-6.9%16.7%-13.6%10.0%4.8%14.7%-172.7%-46.0%58.3%-50.9%-69.0%62.8%-30.9%-56.5%-23.0%19.9%29.8%-20.3%24.2%70.0%72.7%-49.9%-15.4%13.8%-4.8%3.4%-27.2%20.5%-33.0%-

46、3.0%-16.6%-17.8%-141.7%26.0%22.2%-177.6%-41.1%5.6%-62.0%-17.8%88.7%-41.9%11.7%-48.5%-25.7%7.8%-35.0%-19.6%21.6%-33.4%-164.8%-102.2%33.9%34.9%-22.8%-75.3%13.7%-68.9%4.9%30.0%7.7%-0.3%-56.4%-33.4%-26.3%-1.4%4.4%-31.6%-85.7%-134.8%83.2%-45.2%-7.1%-11.4%38.0%-54.2%-51.3%-34.3%-41.6%-52.6%23.3%-22.9%-1.1

47、%48.4%75.2%-132.9%-2.7%-55.0%480.8%78.0%-1.7%-1.9%154.1%66.8%-0.5%-43.7%1.6%27.1%-0.6%31.0%274.5%-72.7%2044.0%-13.3%-19.0%2.0%58.2%32.2%64.8%1.3%77.6%-8.6%27.2%-8.9%-29.2%-27.0%24.6%-64.8%130.1%-35.5%65.8%68.3%-8.1%-4.4%-91.2%2.7%18.5%17.5%2.1%13.6%-10.2%111.9%58.0%-49.2%39.6%0.0%-66.1%23.1%44.7%13.

48、2%-18.1%-33.1%11.2%-30.9%-85.1%-76.6%17.5%-7.5%-83.8%0.7%-16.8%22.5%-15.6%-0.7%4.8%-12.3%-19.2%299.2%-5.2%-30.8%83.4%-4.3%-8.9%-99.8%-14.0%-83.8%-3.6%-23.6%27.1%32.1%-200.1%15.4%-6.1%-6.6%28.8%184.4%-182.8%-33.0%-114.7%-10.6%-167.7%-21.1%-89.8%10.5%-40.3%-40.6%-32.2%4.6%-58.6%-27.5%-28.8%-29.1%8.6%-

49、31.7%38.0%-87.0%32.8%-19.4%-24.0%-75.4%-8.8%-39.6%-42.5%-31.4%-7530.5%647.6%61.7%236.4%38.6%217.1%34.0%109.9%-65.4%175.9%14.6%174.2%19.0%201.7%54.1%159.7%20.9%129.3%1.9%50.4%-55.9%111.0%11.3%117.6%28.6%71.2%-1.5%73.7%3.5%83.1%13.1%69.8%20.4%49.9%6.0%34.2%-0.4%37.1%4.1%27.7%-4.5%24.9%-4.4%33.6%9.8%24

50、.4%1.4%41.8%20.8%20.9%1.9%20.2%2.4%11.4%-6.1%18.2%1.0%12.6%0.1%11.8%1.9%6.6%-3.0%10.7%1.1%8.9%0.0%9.4%1.4%11.3%3.7%8.4%1.4%3.9%-2.6%7.4%0.9%-0.5%-6.8%6.2%1.8%1.2%-2.6%2.6%-1.0%3.0%0.3%2.9%0.5%5.0%2.8%1.5%-0.3%2.0%0.2%0.3%-1.4%2.0%0.4%1.4%0.0%1.5%0.4%-0.4%-1.3%-0.9%-1.3%0.5%0.4%-1.1%-1.2%-0.1%-0.1%-0

51、.1%0.1%-0.8%-0.4%-1.0%-0.6%-4.1%-3.1%6.7%7.8%-0.4%0.9%-2.1%-0.8%-1.1%0.4%-1.8%0.1%-1.4%0.7%-3.2%-1.1%-2.8%-0.2%-2.3%0.3%-3.0%-0.3%-2.7%0.1%-4.8%-1.8%-2.5%0.8%-4.8%-1.1%-5.4%-1.7%-5.1%-0.5%-5.0%-0.1%-6.0%-0.9%2.2%7.5%-4.0%1.4%-6.6%-1.2%-5.2%0.4%-5.2%0.4%-7.8%-0.7%-9.2%-0.7%-1.1%8.1%-10.6%-1.4%-8.3%1.

52、1%-12.4%-2.1%-14.4%-2.8%-12.0%0.1%-14.2%-2.1%-14.1%-1.1%-12.8%1.2%-35.7%-20.0%-17.9%-2.0%-17.0%-0.9%-6.7%9.8%-16.8%0.3%-20.8%-1.2%-22.3%-2.5%-17.0%3.7%-23.2%-1.2%-22.8%-0.5%-16.6%7.0%-25.0%0.5%-27.1%1.1%-35.8%-6.4%-28.8%1.2%-35.1%-3.0%-33.0%-0.3%-34.1%1.3%-49.4%-12.4%-44.5%-6.3%-43.2%-4.1%-22.7%31.2

53、%-103.9%-44.6%-72.0%-1.7%-76.9%-2.8%-72.3%2.7%-103.2%-15.0%-216.0%-13.0%-471.0%-16.3%-492.4%-17.4%-598.0%-20.7%585.9%197.8%183.1%175.3%161.3%155.2%147.6%138.9%127.4%106.2%99.7%89.0%72.7%70.3%70.0%49.4%43.9%34.5%33.0%32.2%29.3%23.8%23.0%21.0%19.0%17.8%17.5%17.2%12.5%9.9%9.6%9.6%8.9%7.9%7.6%7.0%6.5%6.

54、4%6.3%4.5%3.8%3.6%2.7%2.4%2.2%1.8%1.7%1.7%1.5%1.4%1.1%0.9%0.5%0.1%0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.5%-0.5%-1.0%-1.2%-1.2%-1.3%-1.5%-2.0%-2.0%-2.2%-2.5%-2.5%-2.8%-2.8%-3.0%-3.3%-3.7%-3.7%-4.7%-4.9%-5.1%-5.3%-5.4%-5.4%-5.6%-5.6%-7.0%-8.5%-9.2%-9.3%-9.4%-10.3%-11.6%-12.1%-12.1%-13.0%-14.0%-15.7%-15.9%-16.1%-16.5%-17.1

55、%-19.7%-19.8%-20.7%-22.0%-22.2%-23.6%-25.5%-28.2%-29.4%-30.0%-32.1%-32.8%-35.4%-37.0%-38.2%-39.2%-54.0%-59.3%-70.3%-74.1%-75.0%-88.3%-203.0%-454.7%-475.1%-577.3%ROE：資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率與銷售凈利率繼續(xù)拖累 ROE，杠桿率被動提升ROE 總覽：Q2 多數(shù)行業(yè) ROE 下行，新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈與傳統(tǒng)能源行業(yè)ROE 提升22Q2 多數(shù)行業(yè) ROE 下行，全 A 非金融 ROE（TTM）為 8.8%，與 22Q1 相比略有下行，拆分來看，資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率與銷售

56、凈利率共同拖累 ROE，權(quán)益乘數(shù)則在利潤增速收斂背景下被動提升。上游原材料：整體 ROE 較 Q1 提升，其中，煤炭、石油石化、基礎(chǔ)化工、有色金屬行業(yè) ROE 均有提升。中游制造業(yè)：僅電力設(shè)備與通信行業(yè) ROE 上行，除電力設(shè)備外，其余行業(yè)資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率均下滑。下游必選消費(fèi)：整體 ROE 較 Q1 下行，其中，食品飲料 ROE 上行，且資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率有所提升，農(nóng)林牧漁行業(yè) ROE 繼續(xù)為負(fù)。下游可選消費(fèi)：除家電外，其余行業(yè) ROE 均下滑，整體 ROE 處于 2010 年以來低位，銷售凈利率、資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率、權(quán)益乘數(shù)均是板塊 ROE 的壓制因素。金融房建：整體 ROE 仍處于 2010 年以來最低位，Q2

57、 各行業(yè)杠桿均提升。支持服務(wù)：整體 ROE 低位，Q2 亦出現(xiàn)下滑，銷售凈利率是板塊共同壓制項(xiàng)。圖 11：22Q2 多數(shù)行業(yè) ROE 下滑，資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率與銷售凈利率共同拖累 ROE，權(quán)益乘數(shù)則在利潤增速收斂背景下被動提升備注：表內(nèi)值均為TTM2022Q22022Q1當(dāng)前主要壓制因素22 Q 2 較22 Q 1 相關(guān)壓制項(xiàng)是否出現(xiàn)邊際改善大類板塊一級行業(yè)ROE銷售凈利率資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率權(quán)益乘數(shù)ROE銷售凈利率資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率權(quán)益乘數(shù)ROE百分位（ 2010 年以來）銷售凈利率資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率權(quán)益乘數(shù)銷售凈利率資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率權(quán)益乘數(shù)煤炭22.2%14.3%0.662.3418.4%12.2%0.642.34100.0%石

58、油石化11.6%4.3%1.162.359.7%4.1%1.062.2677.5%基礎(chǔ)化工17.4%11.2%0.781.9917.3%11.4%0.771.98100.0%上游原材料鋼鐵8.8%3.3%1.082.5112.6%4.6%1.112.5069.3%有色金屬16.3%5.1%1.302.4714.5%4.6%1.282.48100.0%建筑材料13.1%9.2%0.632.2515.0%10.1%0.702.1253.0%上游板塊14.4%6.3%1.002.3113.4%6.1%0.972.2697.9%電力設(shè)備12.3%7.3%0.652.6210.8%6.5%0.642.5

59、989.7%機(jī)械設(shè)備7.0%5.6%0.552.307.7%5.8%0.582.2857.1%中游制造業(yè)電子通信9.7%6.0%7.7%0.732.211.8810.7%6.3%7.1%0.762.2485.7%8.2%0.5667.5%0.5671.8693.8%國防和軍工5.3%6.2%0.3952.185.4%6.2%0.4032.1571.4%中游板塊8.9%6.6%0.612.218.8%6.4%0.622.2077.5%下游必選消費(fèi)農(nóng)林牧漁食品飲料醫(yī)藥生物紡織服裝-12.5%-5.4%0.892.601.541.811.81-12.9%-5.8%0.872.542.0%20.8%1

60、8.2%0.7420.3%18.1%0.730.711.5461.2%12.0%9.5%0.7012.7%9.9%1.801.8171.4%7.1%4.8%0.817.8%5.3%0.8120.4%下游必選板塊10.2%7.3%0.751.8510.4%7.5%0.761.850.0%美容護(hù)理10.4%10.2%0.661.5510.6%10.5%0.651.5663.2%輕工制造6.7%4.6%0.722.047.8%5.3%0.732.0232.6%家用電器17.4%6.7%0.922.8416.8%6.5%0.922.8240.8%下游可選消費(fèi)汽車5.1%2.6%0.762.625.7%