德國土地利用考察后感想課件

科目：專題討論2-1指導(dǎo)教授：林俐玲教授；鄭皆達(dá)教授；陳鴻烈教授；林德貴教授報告人：翁志成98年12月4日Howtocalculateandinterpretecologicalfootprintsforlongperiodsoftime:thecaseofAustria1926–1995HelmutHaberl,Karl-HeinzErb,FridolinKrausmann,2001,ecologicalEconomics38

科目：專題討論2-1HowtocalculateanOutlineAbstractIntroductionMethodsResultsDiscussionConclusionsOutlineAbstractInthispaperwepresentcalculationsoftheecologicalfootprint(EF)forAustria1926–1995,baseduponthreedifferentmethodologicalapproaches.InmostEFcalculationspublishedthusfar,materialandenergyflowsareconvertedtoarea(hectares)usingglobalyieldsoftherespectiveyear.Incontrast,weanalyzetheeffectdifferentassumptionsonyieldshaveontheresultsofEFcalculationsbyassuming:(1)constantglobalyieldsasof1995;(2)variableglobalyields;(3)variablelocalyieldsfordomesticextractionandvariableglobalyieldsforimportedbiomass.Abstract

InthispaperwepresentcalcuAccordingtoourresultsdifferentassumptionsonyieldscaninfluencetheresultofEFcalculationsbyafactorof2,atleast.WeconcludethatfurtherresearchisnecessarywithrespecttobiomassyieldsassumedinEFcalculations.ThepurposeforwhichEFcalculationsaremade,andtheinterpretationoftheirresults,willdeterminefuturedevelopmentoftheEFmethodology.AccordingtoourresultsdiffeKeywords:Ecologicalfootprint(EF);Socioeconomicmetabolism;Biologicalproductivity;Biomassyield;Overshoot;SustainabilityindicatorsKeywords:

AnyEFcalculationtriestoassess

howmuchbiologicallyproductiveareaisneeded

toproducetheyearlyresourceflowsconsumedby

thepopulationofaregion(acity,acountry,or

theworld),toabsorbwastesoremissions(especially

CO2),andtohostthebuiltinfrastructurein

thisregion.TheEFincludes:(1)actuallyused

landas,forinstance,croplandandpastures

neededtoproducegoodsandservicesderived

fromthesekindsoflanduseandbuiltupland;(2)theareaofforeststhatwouldbenecessaryto

producetheamountofwoodusedinasustainable

manner;and(3)areathatwouldbenecessary

inordertoabsorbthecarbonreleasedbyburning

fossilfuels.1.IntroductionAnyEFcalculationtriestoa

‘Biocapacity’(BC).IftheEFisbiggerthantheavailableBC,thisisofteninterpretedas‘overshoot,’thisbeingasituationinwhichhumanconsumptionexceedsecologicallimits.Inthispaperwewillpresentcalculationsof

Austria’sEFfor1926–1995.Thisperiodoftime

coversalargepartofAustria’sindustrialization,

includingasurgeoffossil-fueluseandtheindustrialization

ofagricultureaftertheSecondWorld

War.Wearenotawareofanypublishedcalculation

ofEFtimeseriescoveringsuchalongspan

oftime.‘Biocapacity’(BC).2.MethodsIncalculatingtheEFintimeseriesthequestionariseswhichyield(productivityperunitarea)shouldbeassumedforconvertingbiomassflowsintofootprintareas.Inordertobeabletocomparetheconsumptionpatternsofdifferentcountries,thecustomaryEFmethodologyusesglobalproductivityaveragestocalculatetheEFofanyspecificresourceused.actualproductivityofcountryAcanbehigherorlowerthantheglobalaverage.2.MethodsIncalculatingtheEFInatimeseriescalculationthisspatialandtemporalvariabilityofyieldsposesaproblem:whichyieldshouldbeusedforconvertingconsumption[kg]intoarea[ha]?WehavechosentocalculatetheEFinAustria1926–1995withthreedifferentmethod(GlobalYield1995、VariableGlobalYield、VariableLocalYield),eachofwhichreflectsaconsistentsetofassumptions(seeFig.1)Inatimeseriescalculationt德國土地利用考察后感想課件3.ResultsFig.2showstheresultsofourfootprintcalculations.3.ResultsFig.2showstheres3700002210001890002倍2210001190002630002.2倍3700002210001890002倍2210001190Fig.3presentstheresultsofourcalculationoflocalBCinAustriain1926accordingtothethreemethods.Fig.3presentstheresultsof德國土地利用考察后感想課件Fig.4comparesAustria’sfootprintwiththelocallyandgloballyavailableBiocapacity,bothinabsolutevaluesandaspercapitafigures.Fig.4comparesAustria’sfoot德國土地利用考察后感想課件4.DiscussionTable1comparesourresultsfor1995withMathisWackernagel’s(m.,2000)mostrecentfootprintcalculationsforAustria.4.DiscussionTable1compares5%17%EF-BC=10%EF-BC=23%5%17%EF-BC=10%EF-BC=23%Analyzingthe

periodfrom1926to1995wefindtwomain

trends:1.Importsofagriculturalbiomass,aboveall

grains,meatandlivinganimals,arehighinthe

earlydecades,butwithagriculturalyields

growingquicklyafter1950,Austriabecomesa

netexporterofagriculturalproduceinthe

1970s.However,whenwealsoconsiderforest

products,Austriaiseitherself-containedora

smallnetexporterofbiomass-energyoverthe

wholeperiod.2.Fossil-fuelconsumptionrisesbyafactorof

about4overthewholeperiod(seeFig.7below).

Analyzingtheperiodfrom19261650以前出口以木材為主1926-1935進(jìn)口肉類是明顯的1650以前出口以木材為主1926-1935進(jìn)口肉類是明顯的EFcalculationsdependonassumptions

onbiomassyieldswhicharehighly

variableinspaceandtime.Yieldarehighest

oncropland,mediuminforestsandloweston

grassland.Thisisnotonlyafunctionofthenet

primaryproductivity(NPP)oftheseland-use

classes,butdependsalsoonthefollowingfactors:Thelandharvested.CroplandproductsandallforestproductsareconsideredinEFcalculationsonthelevelofprimaryproduce(plantproducts).Sinceabout85–90%ofbiomass-energyislostinthetransformationprocess,grasslandyields—asusedinEFcalculations—aremuchlowerthancroplandorforestyields.EFcalculationsdependonassuTable2showstheyieldsweusedinourEFcalculationsinAustriain1926and1995,andtheglobalyieldin1995asbiomass-energyperunitareaandthecorrespondingEFcomponentperenergycontentofbiomassproducts.Table2showstheyieldsweus5.ConclusionWestill

believethatarea-basedindicatorssuchastheEF

shouldbeamongthefewselectedaggregated‘headline

indicators’thatcanbeusedtodescribethe

‘physicaleconomy’ondifferentspatiallevelsand

intime-seriesanalyses.Wealsofeelthatareause

isanimportantprocesswithrespecttosustainable

developmentthatshouldbemonitored.5.ConclusionWestillbelieveOurstudysuggeststhat,althoughitisfeasibletocalculatethefootprintofnationsinalongtime-series,itisnotstraightforwardtointerprettheresults.Currentlyusedmethodsareusefultodemonstratelocalavailabilityandappropriationofbiocapacityforonepointintime.Biocapacity,

inthesemethods,isdefinedasareaofcropland,grasslandorforestwithglobalaverageproductivity(plusbuilt-uparea).Inthisapproachbiocapacityisimplicitlydefinedasthecapacityofareatosustainablyproducebiomass(biomass-relatedproducts)andtoabsorbCO2.ThisconventionisusefulforthecomparisonofEFandBCofdifferentnationsbecausebothBCandEFareexpressedasarea[hectares]ofstandardizedproductivity.Whilethisisavaluabletooltodemonstrateandcommunicateoveruseofnaturalresources.Ourstudysuggeststhat,althoTHANKYOUFORYOURATTENTIONTHANKYOU

科目：專題討論2-1指導(dǎo)教授：林俐玲教授；鄭皆達(dá)教授；陳鴻烈教授；林德貴教授報告人：翁志成98年12月4日Howtocalculateandinterpretecologicalfootprintsforlongperiodsoftime:thecaseofAustria1926–1995HelmutHaberl,Karl-HeinzErb,FridolinKrausmann,2001,ecologicalEconomics38

科目：專題討論2-1HowtocalculateanOutlineAbstractIntroductionMethodsResultsDiscussionConclusionsOutlineAbstractInthispaperwepresentcalculationsoftheecologicalfootprint(EF)forAustria1926–1995,baseduponthreedifferentmethodologicalapproaches.InmostEFcalculationspublishedthusfar,materialandenergyflowsareconvertedtoarea(hectares)usingglobalyieldsoftherespectiveyear.Incontrast,weanalyzetheeffectdifferentassumptionsonyieldshaveontheresultsofEFcalculationsbyassuming:(1)constantglobalyieldsasof1995;(2)variableglobalyields;(3)variablelocalyieldsfordomesticextractionandvariableglobalyieldsforimportedbiomass.Abstract

InthispaperwepresentcalcuAccordingtoourresultsdifferentassumptionsonyieldscaninfluencetheresultofEFcalculationsbyafactorof2,atleast.WeconcludethatfurtherresearchisnecessarywithrespecttobiomassyieldsassumedinEFcalculations.ThepurposeforwhichEFcalculationsaremade,andtheinterpretationoftheirresults,willdeterminefuturedevelopmentoftheEFmethodology.AccordingtoourresultsdiffeKeywords:Ecologicalfootprint(EF);Socioeconomicmetabolism;Biologicalproductivity;Biomassyield;Overshoot;SustainabilityindicatorsKeywords:

AnyEFcalculationtriestoassess

howmuchbiologicallyproductiveareaisneeded

toproducetheyearlyresourceflowsconsumedby

thepopulationofaregion(acity,acountry,or

theworld),toabsorbwastesoremissions(especially

CO2),andtohostthebuiltinfrastructurein

thisregion.TheEFincludes:(1)actuallyused

landas,forinstance,croplandandpastures

neededtoproducegoodsandservicesderived

fromthesekindsoflanduseandbuiltupland;(2)theareaofforeststhatwouldbenecessaryto

producetheamountofwoodusedinasustainable

manner;and(3)areathatwouldbenecessary

inordertoabsorbthecarbonreleasedbyburning

fossilfuels.1.IntroductionAnyEFcalculationtriestoa

‘Biocapacity’(BC).IftheEFisbiggerthantheavailableBC,thisisofteninterpretedas‘overshoot,’thisbeingasituationinwhichhumanconsumptionexceedsecologicallimits.Inthispaperwewillpresentcalculationsof

Austria’sEFfor1926–1995.Thisperiodoftime

coversalargepartofAustria’sindustrialization,

includingasurgeoffossil-fueluseandtheindustrialization

ofagricultureaftertheSecondWorld

War.Wearenotawareofanypublishedcalculation

ofEFtimeseriescoveringsuchalongspan

oftime.‘Biocapacity’(BC).2.MethodsIncalculatingtheEFintimeseriesthequestionariseswhichyield(productivityperunitarea)shouldbeassumedforconvertingbiomassflowsintofootprintareas.Inordertobeabletocomparetheconsumptionpatternsofdifferentcountries,thecustomaryEFmethodologyusesglobalproductivityaveragestocalculatetheEFofanyspecificresourceused.actualproductivityofcountryAcanbehigherorlowerthantheglobalaverage.2.MethodsIncalculatingtheEFInatimeseriescalculationthisspatialandtemporalvariabilityofyieldsposesaproblem:whichyieldshouldbeusedforconvertingconsumption[kg]intoarea[ha]?WehavechosentocalculatetheEFinAustria1926–1995withthreedifferentmethod(GlobalYield1995、VariableGlobalYield、VariableLocalYield),eachofwhichreflectsaconsistentsetofassumptions(seeFig.1)Inatimeseriescalculationt德國土地利用考察后感想課件3.ResultsFig.2showstheresultsofourfootprintcalculations.3.ResultsFig.2showstheres3700002210001890002倍2210001190002630002.2倍3700002210001890002倍2210001190Fig.3presentstheresultsofourcalculationoflocalBCinAustriain1926accordingtothethreemethods.Fig.3presentstheresultsof德國土地利用考察后感想課件Fig.4comparesAustria’sfootprintwiththelocallyandgloballyavailableBiocapacity,bothinabsolutevaluesandaspercapitafigures.Fig.4comparesAustria’sfoot德國土地利用考察后感想課件4.DiscussionTable1comparesourresultsfor1995withMathisWackernagel’s(m.,2000)mostrecentfootprintcalculationsforAustria.4.DiscussionTable1compares5%17%EF-BC=10%EF-BC=23%5%17%EF-BC=10%EF-BC=23%Analyzingthe

periodfrom1926to1995wefindtwomain

trends:1.Importsofagriculturalbiomass,aboveall

grains,meatandlivinganimals,arehighinthe

earlydecades,butwithagriculturalyields

growingquicklyafter1950,Austriabecomesa

netexporterofagriculturalproduceinthe

1970s.However,whenwealsoconsiderforest

products,Austriaiseitherself-containedora

smallnetexporterofbiomass-energyoverthe

wholeperiod.2.Fossil-fuelconsumptionrisesbyafactorof

about4overthewholeperiod(seeFig.7below).

Analyzingtheperiodfrom19261650以前出口以木材為主1926-1935進(jìn)口肉類是明顯的1650以前出口以木材為主1926-1935進(jìn)口肉類是明顯的EFcalculationsdependonassumptions

onbiomassyieldswhicharehighly

variableinspaceandtime.Yieldarehighest

oncropland,mediuminforestsandloweston

grassland.Thisisnotonlyafunctionofthenet

primaryproductivity(NPP)oftheseland-use

classes,butdependsalsoonthefollowingfactors:Thelandharvested.CroplandproductsandallforestproductsareconsideredinEFcalculationsonthelevelofprimaryproduce(plantproducts).Sinceabout85–90%ofbiomass-energyislostinthetransformationprocess,grasslandyields—asusedinEFcalculations—aremuchlowerthancroplandorforestyields.EFcalculationsdependonassuTable2showstheyieldsweusedinourEFcalculationsinAustriain1926a