宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)-我是宏經(jīng)課件ing盧老師chap

MACROECONOMICS?2010WorthPublishers,allrightsreservedSEVENTHEDITIONPowerPoint?SlidesbyRonCronovichN.GregoryMankiwCHAPTERIntroductiontoEconomicFluctuations9ModifiedforEC204byBobMurphyInthischapter,youwilllearn:factsaboutthebusinesscycle關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的事實(shí)howtheshortrundiffersfromthelongrun短期和長(zhǎng)期有什么不同anintroductiontoaggregatedemand總需求簡(jiǎn)介anintroductiontoaggregatesupplyintheshortrunandlongrun短期和長(zhǎng)期總供給howthemodelofaggregatedemandandaggregatesupplycanbeusedtoanalyzetheshort-runandlong-runeffectsof“shocks.”用總需求-總供給模型如何解釋短期和長(zhǎng)期的沖擊效應(yīng)3CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsFactsaboutthebusinesscycle關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的事實(shí)GDPgrowthaverages3–3.5percentperyearoverthelongrunwithlargefluctuationsintheshortrun.長(zhǎng)期中GDP每年平均增長(zhǎng)3-3-5%，而在短期則有巨大的波動(dòng)ConsumptionandinvestmentfluctuatewithGDP,butconsumptiontendstobelessvolatileandinvestmentmorevolatilethanGDP.消費(fèi)和投資隨著GDP一起波動(dòng)，但是消費(fèi)的波動(dòng)幅度小于GDP，而投資則波動(dòng)更大。Unemploymentrisesduringrecessionsandfallsduringexpansions.經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間失業(yè)率上升，經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張時(shí)，失業(yè)率下降Okun’sLaw:thenegativerelationshipbetweenGDPandunemployment.奧肯定律：失業(yè)與GDP之間的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。GrowthratesofrealGDP,consumption

GDP和消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)率Percentchangefrom4quartersearlierAveragegrowthrateRealGDP

growthrateConsumptiongrowthrateGrowthratesofrealGDP,consumption,investmentPercentchangefrom4quartersearlierInvestmentgrowthrateRealGDP

growthrateConsumptiongrowthrateUnemployment失業(yè)PercentoflaborforceOkun’sLaw奧肯定律PercentagechangeinrealGDPChangeinunemploymentrate197519821991200119841951196620031987200819718CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsIndexofLeadingEconomicIndicators

領(lǐng)先經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)PublishedmonthlybytheConferenceBoard.

每月由美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)咨商局發(fā)布Aimstoforecastchangesineconomicactivity

6-9monthsintothefuture.該指數(shù)的發(fā)布用于預(yù)測(cè)未來6-9個(gè)月經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的變化。Usedinplanningbybusinessesandgovt,despitenotbeingaperfectpredictor.雖然該指數(shù)的預(yù)測(cè)并不完美，但是被企業(yè)和政府做計(jì)劃所采用9CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsComponentsoftheLEIindex領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)的組成部分Averageworkweekinmanufacturing制造業(yè)生產(chǎn)工人的平均每周工作時(shí)間Initialweeklyclaimsforunemploymentinsurance初次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)保障的人數(shù)Newordersforconsumergoodsandmaterials對(duì)消費(fèi)品和原材料的新訂單Neworders,nondefensecapitalgoods非國(guó)防資本品的新訂單Vendorperformance供貨商交貨指數(shù)Newbuildingpermitsissued發(fā)放的新建筑開工許可證Indexofstockprices股票價(jià)格指數(shù)M2Yieldspread(10-yearminus3-month)onTreasuries利率差（10年期國(guó)債與3個(gè)月期國(guó)債的收益差）Indexofconsumerexpectations消費(fèi)者預(yù)期指數(shù)IndexofLeadingEconomicIndicators經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)指數(shù)Source:

ConferenceBoard2004=10011CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsTimehorizonsinmacroeconomics

宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的時(shí)間范圍Longrun

長(zhǎng)期

Pricesareflexible,respondtochangesinsupplyordemand.價(jià)格是彈性的，能對(duì)供需變化作出反應(yīng).Shortrun短期

Manypricesare“sticky”atapredeterminedlevel.價(jià)格在某個(gè)以前決定的水平上是“粘性”的.Theeconomybehavesmuchdifferentlywhenpricesaresticky.價(jià)格是否具有粘性，經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)大不相同.12CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsRecapofclassicalmacrotheory

(Chaps.3-8)簡(jiǎn)要概述古典宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理論Outputisdeterminedbythesupplyside:產(chǎn)出由供給方?jīng)Q定suppliesofcapital,labor資本、勞動(dòng)的供給Technology技術(shù)Changesindemandforgoods&services

(C,I,G)onlyaffectprices,notquantities.對(duì)產(chǎn)品與服務(wù)的需求變動(dòng)(C,I,G)僅僅影響價(jià)格，而非影響數(shù)量.Assumescompletepriceflexibility.完全價(jià)格彈性Appliestothelongrun.適用于長(zhǎng)期13CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsWhenpricesaresticky…

當(dāng)價(jià)格是粘性的…outputandemploymentalsodependondemand,whichisaffectedby:產(chǎn)出和就業(yè)也取決于對(duì)產(chǎn)品與服務(wù)的需求，這些需求又受影響于fiscalpolicy(G

andT)財(cái)政政策monetarypolicy(M)貨幣政策otherfactors,likeexogenouschangesin

CorI其他因素,如C或I的外生變動(dòng)14CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsThemodelof

aggregatedemandandsupply總需求與總供給模型Theparadigmmostmainstreameconomists

andpolicymakersusetothinkabouteconomicfluctuationsandpoliciestostabilizetheeconomy大多數(shù)主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和政策制定者都認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)存在、宏觀政策有助于穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)Showshowthepricelevelandaggregateoutputaredetermined價(jià)格水平和總產(chǎn)出如何決定？Showshowtheeconomy’sbehaviorisdifferent

intheshortrunandlongrun為什么經(jīng)濟(jì)在短期與長(zhǎng)期的表現(xiàn)各不相同？15CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsAggregatedemand總需求Theaggregatedemandcurveshowstherelationshipbetweenthepricelevelandthequantityofoutputdemanded.總需求曲線顯示了價(jià)格水平與產(chǎn)出數(shù)量之間的關(guān)系Forthischapter’sintrototheAD/ASmodel,

weuseasimpletheoryofaggregatedemandbasedonthequantitytheoryofmoney.在這一章中我們基于貨幣數(shù)量論來介紹AD/AS模型Chapters10-12developthetheoryofaggregatedemandinmoredetail.在10-12章中將會(huì)更詳細(xì)的討論總需求理論16CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsTheQuantityEquationas

AggregateDemand作為總需求的數(shù)量方程FromChapter4,recallthequantityequation

M

V=P

YForgivenvaluesofMandV,

thisequationimpliesaninverserelationshipbetweenPandY

…

對(duì)于給定的M和V的值，該方程表明P和Y的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系17CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsThedownward-slopingADcurve向右下方傾斜的總需求曲線Anincreaseinthepricelevelcausesafallinrealmoneybalances(M/P

),causingadecreaseinthedemandforgoods&services.價(jià)格水平的上升導(dǎo)致實(shí)際貨幣余額減少，導(dǎo)致對(duì)產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的需求減少。Y

PAD18CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsShiftingtheADcurve總需求曲線的移動(dòng)AnincreaseinthemoneysupplyshiftstheADcurvetotheright.貨幣供給的增加引起總需求曲線向右移動(dòng)Y

PAD1AD219CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsAggregatesupplyinthelongrun長(zhǎng)期總供給RecallfromChapter3:

Inthelongrun,outputisdeterminedby

factorsuppliesandtechnology在長(zhǎng)期，產(chǎn)出由投入要素和生產(chǎn)技術(shù)決定 isthefull-employmentornaturallevelofoutput,atwhichtheeconomy’sresourcesarefullyemployed.是產(chǎn)出的充分就業(yè)或自然水平，它是經(jīng)濟(jì)的資源得到充分利用“Fullemployment”meansthat

unemploymentequalsitsnaturalrate(notzero).充分就業(yè)意味著：失業(yè)為其自然率20CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsThelong-runaggregatesupplycurve

長(zhǎng)期總供給曲線Y

PLRASdoesnotdependonP,

soLRASisvertical.產(chǎn)出與價(jià)格水平無關(guān)，所以LRAS為垂直的21CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsLong-runeffectsofanincreaseinM

M增加的長(zhǎng)期效應(yīng)Y

PAD1LRASAnincreaseinM

shiftsADtotheright.P1P2Inthelongrun,thisraisesthepricelevel……butleavesoutputthesame.AD222CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsAggregatesupplyintheshortrun

短期總供給Manypricesarestickyintheshortrun.短期中許多價(jià)格都是粘性的Fornow(andthroughChap.12),weassume假設(shè)allpricesarestuckatapredeterminedlevelintheshortrun.在短期中所有的價(jià)格都是事先固定的firmsarewillingtosellasmuchatthatpricelevelastheircustomersarewillingtobuy.企業(yè)在此粘性價(jià)格下愿意出售消費(fèi)者所愿購(gòu)買的商品數(shù)量Therefore,theshort-runaggregatesupply(SRAS)curveishorizontal:因此，短期總供給曲線是水平的23CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsTheshort-runaggregatesupplycurve

短期總供給曲線Y

PSRASTheSRAScurveishorizontal:Thepricelevelisfixedatapredeterminedlevel,andfirmssellasmuchasbuyersdemand.短期中所有價(jià)格水平都是固定的，供需相等24CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsShort-runeffectsofanincreaseinM

M增加的短期效應(yīng)Y

PAD1Intheshortrunwhenpricesaresticky,……causesoutputtorise.SRASY2Y1AD2…anincreaseinaggregatedemand…25CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsFromtheshortruntothelongrun

從短期到長(zhǎng)期Overtime,pricesgraduallye“unstuck.”Whentheydo,willtheyriseorfall?隨著時(shí)間的推移，價(jià)格變得不“固定”。當(dāng)這發(fā)生時(shí)，價(jià)格是上升還是下降呢？risefallremainconstantIntheshort-runequilibrium,ifthenovertime,

Pwill…Theadjustmentofpricesiswhatmoves

theeconomytoitslong-runequilibrium.價(jià)格的調(diào)整使得經(jīng)濟(jì)達(dá)到長(zhǎng)期均衡26CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsTheSR&LReffectsofM

>

0

M

>

0時(shí)短期和長(zhǎng)期效應(yīng)Y

PAD1LRASSRASP2Y2A=initialequilibrium初始均衡ABCB=newshort-runeq’mafterFedincreasesM美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)增加M后新的均衡點(diǎn)C=long-runequilibrium長(zhǎng)期均衡AD227CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsHowshocking!!!

沖擊shocks:exogenouschangesinagg.supplyordemand沖擊：總供給和總需求的外生變動(dòng)Shockstemporarilypushtheeconomyawayfromfullemployment.沖擊把經(jīng)濟(jì)暫時(shí)推離充分就業(yè)水平Example:exogenousdecreaseinvelocity Ifthemoneysupplyisheldconstant,adecreaseinVmeanspeoplewillbeusingtheirmoneyinfewertransactions,causingadecreaseindemandforgoodsandservices.例子：如果貨幣供給保持不變，貨幣流通速度的外生下降，V的減少意味著人們將更少的使用其貨幣進(jìn)行交易，導(dǎo)致對(duì)產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的需求減少28CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsSRASLRASAD2Theeffectsofanegativedemandshock

不利的需求沖擊Y

PAD1P2Y2ADshiftsleft,depressingoutputandemployment

intheshortrun.ABCOvertime,pricesfallandtheeconomymovesdownitsdemandcurvetowardfull-employment.29CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsSupplyshocks供給沖擊Asupplyshockaltersproductioncosts,affectsthepricesthatfirmscharge.(alsocalledpriceshocks)對(duì)總供給的沖擊改變了生產(chǎn)成本，影響廠商制定的價(jià)格水平Examplesofadversesupplyshocks:不利的供給沖擊的例子Badweatherreducescropyields,pushingupfoodprices.干旱減少了農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量，推高食物的價(jià)格Workersunionize,negotiatewageincreases.工會(huì)推高了工資水平

Newenvironmentalregulationsrequirefirmstoreduceemissions.Firmschargehigherpricestohelpcoverthecostsofcompliance.新環(huán)境保護(hù)法要求企業(yè)減少排污量，企業(yè)以更高價(jià)格的形式把增加的成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給顧客。

Favorablesupplyshockslowercostsandprices.有利的供給沖擊降低成本和物價(jià)水平30CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsCASESTUDY:

The1970soilshocks案例研究：20世紀(jì)70年代的石油沖擊Early1970s:OPECcoordinatesareductioninthesupplyofoil.20世紀(jì)70年代初，歐佩克協(xié)調(diào)減少石油的供給Oilpricesrose石油價(jià)格上升

11%in1973

68%in1974

16%in1975Suchsharpoilpriceincreasesaresupplyshocksbecausetheysignificantlyimpactproductioncostsandprices.這樣大幅度的石油價(jià)格上升就是供給沖擊，因?yàn)樗鼑?yán)重影響到了生產(chǎn)成本和價(jià)格水平31CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsSRAS1Y

PADLRASY2CASESTUDY:

The1970soilshocksTheoilpriceshockshiftsSRASup,causingoutputandemploymenttofall.ABInabsenceof

furtherpriceshocks,priceswillfallovertimeandeconomymovesbacktowardfullemployment.SRAS2A32CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsCASESTUDY:

The1970soilshocksPredictedeffects

oftheoilshock:預(yù)測(cè)石油沖擊的影響inflationoutputunemployment…andthenagradualrecovery.然后逐漸的復(fù)蘇33CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsCASESTUDY:

The1970soilshocksLate1970s:Aseconomywasrecovering,oilpricesshotupagain,causinganotherhugesupplyshock!!!20世紀(jì)70年代末，經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)復(fù)蘇，然而石油價(jià)格又一起上漲，導(dǎo)致了又一次巨大的石油沖擊34CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsCASESTUDY:

The1980soilshocks1980s:Afavorablesupplyshock--asignificantfallinoilprices.Asthemodelpredicts,

inflationandunemploymentfell:1980s：一場(chǎng)有利的石油沖擊—石油價(jià)格的大幅下降。正如模型所預(yù)測(cè)的，通貨膨脹和失業(yè)都下降了。35CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsStabilizationpolicy穩(wěn)定化政策def:policyactionsaimedatreducingtheseverityofshort-runeconomicfluctuations.

定義：旨在減少短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)嚴(yán)重性的政策行動(dòng)。Example:Usingmonetarypolicytocombattheeffectsofadversesupplyshocks…

例子：運(yùn)用貨幣政策以減弱不利的供給沖擊的影響36CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoEconomicFluctuationsStabilizingoutputwith

monetarypolicy運(yùn)用貨幣政策穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)出SRAS1Y

PAD1BAY2LRASTheadversesupplyshockmovestheeconomyto

pointB.不利的供給沖擊使經(jīng)濟(jì)移動(dòng)到B點(diǎn)SRAS237CHAPTER9

IntroductiontoE