格拉坦研究所-Grattan卡車計劃：清潔貨運的實用政策（英）

TheGrattantruckplan:practicalpoliciesforcleanerfreight

GrattanInstitute20222

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GrattanInstituteReportNo.2022-11,August2022

ThisreportwaswrittenbyMarionTerrill,IngridBurfurd,andLachlanFox.MiriamCharakandLouisaBorlandmadehelpfulcontributions.

Wewouldliketothanknumerousgovernmentandindustryparticipantsandofficialsfortheirinput.

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Thisreportmaybecitedas:Terrill,M.,Burfurd,I.,andFox,L.(2022).TheGrattantruckplan:practicalpoliciesforcleanerfreight.GrattanInstitute.

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GrattanInstitute20223

Overview

TruckiesmaybeenjoyinganewfoundstatusasessentialworkerssinceCOVIDlockdowns–butthatappreciationvanishestheminuteadirtybigdieseltruckthunderspastonanurbanroad.Peoplewantthetrucktasktobedone,butdisliketheside-effectsofpollution,noise,andcarbonemissions.Whilethoseside-effectscan’tbeeliminated,theycanbereduced.

Peoplemaywonderwhymorefreightcan’tgobyrail–afterall,governmentshavebeenspendingafortuneonfreightrailinfrastructure.Butroadandrailmostlydodifferentjobs.Railmainlycarriesbulkconsignmentsofcommoditiessuchascoal,ironore,andgrain,headingtoportsonfixedschedules.Roadfreight,ontheotherhand,encompassesallsortsofgoodstravellingfrommanyoriginstomanydestinations.Roadandrailrarelycompeteforfreight.

ThetypicalAustraliantruckisolderthanitsoverseascounterpart,andthatmeansit’smorepolluting.FourteenpercentoftheAustralianfleetispre-1996,andthesetrucksemit60timestheparticulatematterofanewtruck,andeighttimesthepoisonousnitrogenoxides.Exhaust-pipepollutantsfromtruckskillmorethan400Australianseveryyear.Evenwhenthey’renotkillingpeople,they’recausingrespiratoryillnessesandcancer,andimpairingdecision-makingandcognitivefunctioning.

Hundredsofcitiesaroundtheworldhandlethisproblemwith

low-emissionzones.Stategovernmentsshouldintroducelow-emissionzonesinSydneyandMelbourne,prohibitinghighly-pollutingvehiclesfromdensely-populatedareas.Theoldesttrucksthataremostharmfultohealthwouldstillbeallowedtooperateoutsidethecitybounds,butbusinessesoperatinginthecitywouldneedtoupgradetocleanertrucks,andcouldbeofferedgovernmentassistancetodoso.

EventhenewtruckscomingintoAustraliaaren’tascleanastheyshouldbe.OurpollutionstandardfortrucksisadecadebehindthoseoftheUSandEurope.Andtherangeofless-pollutingtrucksavailableinAustraliaislimitedbypointlessregulationsdemandingthattrucksbe2percentnarrowerthantheglobalstandard.Australiashouldcatchuptotheinternationalpollutionstandardfrom2024,andupdateotherregulationsthatneedlesslylimittheoptionsavailabletoAustraliantruckoperators.

Truckscontribute4percentofAustralia’scarbonemissions.It’sunlikelythatthesectorwillreachzerocarbonemissionsby2050,butgovernmentsshouldminimisethecostofoffsetstofutureconsumers,shareholders,andtaxpayers.Thismeansloweringbarrierstotheuptakeofelectricandhydrogentrucks.Thesetrucksstillcostmoreovertheirlifethandieseltrucks,andoperatorswillneedtofigureouthowtoadapttheirscheduling,garaging,andfuellingarrangementsastechnologiesdevelop.Thefederalgovernmentshouldintroducebindingsalestargetsforzero-emissionstrucks,startingat2percentin2024andgraduallyincreasingtocovermostnewsalesby2040.

Inthemeantime,weneedtoensurenewdieseltrucksemitlesscarbon,byimposingstandardsonenginesandtyres,andratchetingupthosestandardseachyear.

ThisreportshowshowAustraliacansubstantiallyreducetheharmcausedbynoxiousexhaust-pipepollutantsfromtrucks,lowertheircarbonemissions,andbringmoretrucksintothefleetthatarequieterandsafer.Ahappierco-existencewithtrucksiswellwithinreach.

GrattanInstitute20224

Recommendations

Keepthemost-pollutingtrucksawayfrompeople

Stategovernmentsshouldestablishlow-emissionzonesinSydneyandMelbourne,prohibitinghighly-pollutingpre-2003dieseltrucksfromthecapitalcityareasfrom2025.

Catchuptoglobalpollutionstandardsfortrucks

ThefederalgovernmentshouldimposeEuro-VIStage-Cpollutionstandardsfrom2024fornewmodels,andfrom2025forallmodelsofnewheavyvehicles.

Reducethecarbonemissionsfromtrucks

Toacceleratetheswitchtozero-emissionstrucks,thefederalgovernmentshouldsetbindingzero-emissionssalestargetsforsellersofnewtrucks.Targetsforrigidtrucksshouldreach100percent,andforarticulatedtrucks70percent,by2040.

Whiledieseltrucksremainwidespread,thefederalgovernmentshouldapplyprogressivelytightercarbon-emissionrequirementsontheenginesandtyresofnewdieseltrucks.

Reduceregulatorybarrierstobettertrucks

Tomakeiteasierandmoreviableforownerstochooseacleanertruck,thefederalgovernmentshouldscrapregulationsrequiringAustraliantruckstobe2percentnarrowerthantheglobalnorm,andupdateregulationsthatlimitallowableloadsbasedontyreconfigurationsandtyrewidths.

Morespecificrecommendationsaredetailedthroughoutthisreport.

GrattanInstitute20225

Tableofcontents

Overview

3

Recommendations

4

1Trucks justkeepontrucking

...................

6

2Howtoreducethedamageinflictedbytrucksalreadyontheroad

12

3Howtoreducepollutionfromnewtrucks

25

4Howtoreducecarbonemissionsfromtrucks

32

ATheGrattantruckmodel

48

TheGrattantruckplan:practicalpoliciesforcleanerfreight

GrattanInstitute20226

1Trucks...justkeepontrucking

Muchaswemayloveparcelsturninguponthedoorstep,orappreciatetheconvenienceofpoppingouttotheshopsforsomethingtoeat,thetrucksthatmakethispossiblearehardtolove.

Infact,plentyofpeoplehatetrucks.Theheadlinesshowjusthowmuchpeoplehatethem:

ParentsconcernedpollutionfromproposedWestConnexexhauststacknearschoolwillharmchildren.

1

Yarravilletruckslinkedtohighasthmarate.

2

Melbourneresidentsbraceformorecongestionandpollution,astrucknumbersrise.

3

Peoplemaynotlovetrucks,butAustralians’relianceontruckskeepsongrowing.That’sunlikelytochangemuchanytimesoon,andit’snotasifrailcanreallycompete.

Sincetrucksarelikelytobewithusforthelonghaul,thisreport

investigateshowtoreducetheharmtheycause.

1.1Australians’relianceontruckskeepsongrowing

Formostpeople,themostvisibleaspectoftrucks’workiscarryinggoodstohomesandbusinesses.Butfood,drink,andmanufacturedgoodsconstituteasmallershareofthetrucktaskthanconstructionmaterials,fuels,andtoolsoftrade.

4

1.

2.

3.

4.

9News(2017)

.

Dow(2015)

.

Razak(2018)

.BITRE(

2019

,p.7).

Figure1.1:Roadfreighthasprovenresilienttoeconomicdisruptions

Totalyearlyroadfreight(tonne-kilometres)

300b

197019801990200020102020

2008-2009

globalfinancial

1991-92

recession

1982-83

recession

1974-75

recession

crisis

200b

100b

0b

Note:Theblacklinesshowtherecessionsofthe1970s,1980s,and1990s,andtheglobalfinancialcrisisof2008-09.

Source:

BITRE(2021)

.

Theroadfreightindustrytouchesallsectorsoftheeconomy.It’sthereforeunsurprisingthattruckfreighthasbarelybeenaffectedbyeconomicshocks.Itrecoveredquicklyfromsmalldipsassociatedwiththerecessionsofthe1970s,1980s,and1990s,andtheglobalfinancialcrisisof2008-09(Figure

1.1

).Andbytheendof2021,thecongestionassociatedwithfreightvehicleshadalreadyreturnedto2019(pre-COVID)levelsinthefivemainlandcapitalcities.

5

5.BITRE(

2022

,p.2).

GrattanInstitute20227

Theamountoftruckfreightisforecasttocontinuetogrowbyabout2percentperyear.

6

FuelpriceshavebeenontherisesinceDecember2021,andoilhascostmorethanUS$100perbarrelformuchoftheperiodsinceMarch2022,butthesepricesareunlikelytomakemuchofadentontheamountofroadfreight,fortworeasons.

7

First,therehasbeenacounterbalancingimprovementintheproductivityofroadfreightvehicles,goingbackasfarasthe1980s.

8

About80percentofroadfreightisnowmovedbyarticulatedtrucks(Figure

1.2

),whichhaveloweroperatingandmaintenancecoststhanmovingthesamefreightonsmallertrucks.

9

Bettertrucktechnologyhasalsobeenmatchedbyageneration’sworthofroadimprovements,

10

enablinggreateruseofbiggerandhigher-masstrucks.

Second,evenwhentransportcostsrise,theyaregenerallyonlyasmallshareofthetotalpriceofthegoodpaidbyconsumers.

11

Theamountofroadfreightgenerallydependsontheamountof

consumption,

12

andconsumptionisforecasttogrowby4.5percent

in2021-22and5percentin2022-23.

13

6.BITRE(

2019

,p.13).Forecastsrunto2040.

7.Oilpricesarehighbutbynomeansunprecedented.ThepriceofBrentcrudeexceededUS$100perbarrelbetweenMarch2011andAugust2014,andforsixmonthsinthemiddleof2008.Dieselpriceshavelongtendedtobevolatile.

8.Between1971and2016theproductivitygrowthofheavyvehiclesincreasedalmostsix-fold,withmorethan90percentofthegainsattributedtoarticulatedtrucks:NTC(

2016a

,p.3).

9.ProductivityCommission(

2007

,F6).

10.DIRC(

2018a

,p.16).

11.Transportcostscanvarybetweenaslowas1percenttomorethan10percentofallintermediateinputscostsfordifferenttypesofgoods:ProductivityCommission(

2007

,F1-2).

12.Specifically,ofgrossnationalexpenditure,orGDPlessnetexports:BITRE(

2019

,

p.xiv).

13.AustralianGovernment(

2022a

,p.37).

Figure1.2:High-productivitytrucksdothelion’sshareofthework

Numberofregisteredvehicles,andfreightactivity,byvehicletype

LightcommercialRigidtrucksArticulatedtrucks

0m1m2m3m4m

0b50b100b150b200b

Freighttonne

Numberof

kilometres

registered

vehicles

Note:Notalllightcommercialvehiclescarryfreight,thereforetheseresultswillunderstatetheproductivityoftheshareoflightcommercialvehiclesthatdocarryfreight.

Source:

ABS(2020)

.

GrattanInstitute20228

Sothere’slittlereasontoexpectanyappreciableslowinginAustralians’relianceontruckedgoods.

1.2Whyrailcan’treallycompete

Evenacceptingthatthesizeofthedomesticfreighttaskisunlikelytoshrink,doessomuchofithavetotravelbyroad?

Itusedtobethecasethatalargershareofdomesticfreighttravelledbyrailandsea.In1970,about40percentofdomesticfreightbetweenSydneyandMelbournetravelledbyrail,butthatisnowdowntojust1percent.

14

Rail’sshareofthetotalnon-bulkfreighttaskhasfallenfrom25percentinthemid-1970sto18percenttoday.

15

Coastalshipping’ssharehasshrunkfrom13percentto5percentoverthesameperiod.

Thefollowingsectionsexplainwhythereislittlescopetomakea

wholesaleshiftfromroadtorail.

1.2.1Forthemostpart,roadandraildodifferentjobs

Railisbestsuitedtobulkconsignmentsbetweenfewlocationsonapredictableschedule.Forthisreason,itmostlycarriesbulkgoods:coal,ironore,grains,fertiliser,andothergoodsthatcanusuallybepouredordroppedwithoutdamage.

Railcarriesasmallshareofnon-bulkfreightaswell:disparatepackagedandcontainerisedgoodssuchasconstructionmaterials,consumergoods,groceries,andliveanimals.Butnon-bulkfreightmostlytravelsbyroad(Figure

1.3

).That’sbecauseroadfreightisidealfordeliveringmanytypesofgoodsfromawiderangeofpick-uppointstoawiderangeofdestinations.It’safasterandmuchmoreflexibleformoftransport.

14.

Laird(2021)

.

15.BITRE(

2021

,p.81).

Figure1.3:Roaddominatesthetransportofnon-bulkfreight

92%

8%

93%

7%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0%

BulkNon-bulk

BulkNon-bulk

BulkNon-bulk

Rail:

Total:453b-tkm

Road:

Total:230b-tkm

Shipping:

Total:112b-tkm

70%

30%

Note:Domesticfreighttaskonly.

Source:BITRE

(2021

,pp.80–81).

TheGrattantruckplan:practicalpoliciesforcleanerfreight

GrattanInstitute20229

Themainsegmentwherethereisanyrealcompetitionbetweenroadandrailisnon-bulkfreighttravellingbetweencapitalcities:it’sgenerallyonlywhendistancesexceedabout1,500kmthatrailbecomesprice-competitivewithroad.

16

Thereismostlikelytobecompetitionwhere:

?thetaskisnothighlytime-critical,and

?thedistanceissufficientthatcheaperper-kilometrechargesofrailoutweightheextraexpenseofgettingthegoodsfromtheorigintotherailterminal,andfromtherailterminaltothefinaldestination.

Thiscontestedcomponenthasbeenestimatedtobeabout18percentofthetaskcurrentlydonebytrucks,

17

or10percentofthetotalfreighttask.

18

Becauserailtendstobemoreexpensiveovershorterdistances,mostofthenon-bulkinter-capitalfreightcarriedbyrailoccursbetweentheeasternstatesandPerth,andbetweenMelbourneandBrisbane.Forothertripsbetweencapitalcities,raildoeslessthan20percentofthejob,andlessthan10percentbetweenSydneyandeitherBrisbaneorMelbourne.

19

Businessesaremorelikelytorespondtoroadfreightpriceincreasesbychangingtheirintensityofheavyvehicleuse,forexamplebychangestoschedulingorloading,thanbyswitchingtorail.

20

16.See,forexample,BITRE(

2009

,p.7)andBITRE(

2006

,p.78).Exceptionsincludeport-relatedtrips,particularlywhereroadcostsarehighandthelocalcommunityactive:

BITRE(2016)

.

17.NTC(

2016b

,p.76);andBITRE(

2009

,p.6).

18.ProductivityCommission(

2007

,p.13).

19.BITRE(

2009

,pp.6–8).

20.Inmoretechnicalterms,modeshareelasticitiestendtobesmallerthantonneortonnekilometreelasticities:BTE(

1995

,p.34).

1.2.2Governmentsaretryingtoincreaserail’sshareofthetask

Governmentshavebeenexplicitlyseekingtoincreaserail’sshareofthefreighttask.

InNSW,theFreightandPortsPlanfor2018to2023laidoutaplantoincreasetheuseofrailatPortBotany,from17.5percentin2016to28percentby2021.

21

TheVictorianFreightPlanalsosaysitisagovernmentprioritytomakebetteruseofrailfreightassets,includingbysupportingportrailfreightshuttlesandincreasingaxleloadsonregionalrail.

22

FormerDeputyPrimeMinisterJohnAndersonisheadingareview,fundedbythefederalgovernmentandindustry,offreightrail.Thereviewaimstofindwaystobringmorefreightontorail.Itisduetoreportlaterthisyear.

23

Governmentshavebeenbackinguptheirintentionstoincreasetherailshareoffreightwithamajorstep-upinrailinvestment.In2001,Australiangovernmentsinvested$0.5billioninrail;10yearslater,thathadincreasedeight-foldto$4.1billion;by2021,ithadmorethandoubledagain,tomorethan$10billion.

24

Muchoftheinvestmenthasbeenspecificallyforfreightrail.Thebiggestinvestmenttodatehasbeen$15.4billionallocatedsofarbythefederalgovernmenttoInlandRail.OntopofthatinvestmenthavebeenfurtherinvestmentsdesignedtogetthemostoutofInlandRail;forexample,theMarch2022federalBudgetincludeda$3.1billioncommitmenttotheMelbourneIntermodalTerminalPackage,includinginvestmentsinboththeBeveridgeandWesternsitesandrelatedinfrastructure.

25

21.AuditOfficeofNSW(

2021

,p.14).

22.TransportforVictoria(

2018

,p.28).

23.

Chan(2022)

.

24.

ABS(2022)

.

25.AustralianGovernment(

2022b

,p.142).

TheGrattantruckplan:practicalpoliciesforcleanerfreight

GrattanInstitute202210

TherehavealsobeenmajorfederalandstategovernmentinvestmentsinSydney’sMoorebankIntermodalTerminal,whichislocatedinthesuburbofMoorebankandconnectedtoPortBotanywithadedicatedfreightrailline.

Regionalfreightrailhasalsobeenexpanded.Inthepastdecade,NSWhasupgradedtheSydney-to-Newcastlefreightrailconnection,whileVictoriaisupgradingfreightrailinthenorth-eastofthestatethroughtheMurrayBasinRailProject.

Complementaryactionsagreedbyfederalandstategovernmentsandkeymembersoftherailindustryincludefindingwaystomeettherailsector’sskillsandlabourneeds,andtoalignstandardsforrollingstockandcomponents,andoperatingrulesforrailinfrastructureandforcommunicationsandcontrolsystems.

26

Forthosesegmentsofthemarketwhererailcompeteswithroad,railstrugglestocommerciallyjustifyinvestmentinproductivityandcapacityenhancements,andisoftenreliantongovernmentgrantfundingforsuchprojects.

27

Majorfreightrailinvestmentscouldpotentiallybringadvantages,intheformoflowertransportcosts,feweraccidents,lowerairandnoisepollution,andfewergreenhousegasemissions.Butthere’snocompellingreasontothinkthatsuchinvestmentswilldeliveraspromised.WhilethebusinesscaseforInlandRailclaimsthatitwillgiverisetoasubstantialshiftfromroadtorailforinter-capitalfreight,

28

questionsremainovertherailsector’scompetitivenessinthefaceofchangingtechnology.

26.

NTC(2019)

.

27.See,forexample,

TerrillandD.Wood(2018)

andIPART(

2012

,pp.5–7).

28.Thecentralassumptionforthepriceelasticityofdemandis2percent,andisbasedonstated-preferencesurveysin2008-09withupto40companies.Thebusinesscasealsoappliedanelasticitydevelopedforalongdistancecorridor(MelbournetoBrisbane)tointermediate-distancecorridors:AustralianRailTrackCorporation(

2015

,p.120).

1.2.3...butmostnon-bulkfreightwillcontinuetotravelbyroad

Evenwiththesubstantialincreaseingovernmentspendingonrail,thescopeforrailtoincreaseitsshareofthecontestedpartofthefreighttaskislimited.

Non-bulkrailfreightbetweencapitalcitiesismostfeasibleforrailbetweenfar-flungcapitalcities,becausethefuelcostsforrailarelowerpertonnekilometrethantheyareforroad–andforlong-distancetrips,agreaterportionofthetripisbyrail.Butit’sstillusualforgoodstotravelbytrucktotheterminalatthebeginningofthejourney,andfromtheterminalattheendofthejourney.Thisisthemainreasonthatbulkfreightaccountsfor30percentoftheroadfreighttask,asshowninFigure

1.3

onpage

8

.

Theadditionalhandlingcostsofmovingfromtrucktotrain,andtrainbacktotruck,areanimportantcomponentofthedoor-to-doortransportcostsforrailfreight.Aswellasaddingcost,thisadditionalhandlingaddstimetothetrip.Inall,railfreightgenerallytakeslongerthanroadonmostofthemaincorridors.

29

Someoftheotherbarrierstotheuseofrailmaybeeasiertolowerorremove.Differentgauges,differentstandardsforrollingstockandinfrastructure,anddifferentoperatingrules,communicationsandcontrolsystemsallactasbarrierstobusinessesthatmightotherwisechoosefreightrail.

30

Theseshortcomingsarethesubjectofanationalrailplan.

Addressingtheseshortcomingsmayarrestthelong-termdriftfromrailtoroadfreight,butthefundamentalreasonsforthedriftareunlikelytochangetoanygreatdegree,ifatall.

29.Ibid(p.134).

30.

NTC(2019)

.

GrattanInstitute202211

1.3Thestructureofthisreport

Eventhoughtrucksarehardtolove,thereisunlikelytobemuch

changeineitherthedemandfornon-bulkfreight,orthetendencyto

choosetrucksforthetask.Governmentsshouldthereforefocuson

reducing