材料argument樣本不足或范圍太小導(dǎo)致以偏概全

Argument常見錯誤分析HastyGeneralization（小推大---類比關(guān)系）樣本不足或范圍太小導(dǎo)致“以偏概全”例子1：電臺來信中90%稱贊好---》很受歡例子2：Thefollowingappearedaspartofantoselladvertisingtimeonalocalradiostationtolocalbusiness.“TheCumquatCafébeganadvertisingonourlocalradiostationthisyearandwasdelightedtoseeitsbusinessincreaseby10percentoverlastyear’stotals.Theirsuccessshowsyouhowyoucanuseradioadvertisingtomakeyourbusinessmoreprofitable.EvenifitisgrantedthatradioadvertisingisresponsiblefortheCumquat’ssuccess,anotherassumptionmustbemadebeforewecanconcludethatradioadvertisingwillresultinincreasedprofitsforbusinessesingeneral.WemustalsoassumethatwhatistrueoftheCumquatwilllikewisebetrueofmostotherbusinesses.Butthereareallkindsofimportantdifferencesbetweencafesandotherbusinessesthatcouldaffecthowradioaudiencesreacttotheiradvertising.Wecannotsafelyassumethatbecauseasmallrestauranthasbenefitedfromradioadvertising,anyandalllocalbusinesseswillsimilarlybenefit.3：Thefollowingappearedinanewspaperstorygivingadviceabout“Asoveralllifeexpectancycontinuestorise,thepopulationofourcountryisgrowingincreasinglyolder.Forexample,overtwentypercentoftheresidentsofoneofourmorepopulatedregionsarenowatleast65yearsold,andoccupancyratesatresorthosinthatregiondeclinedsignificantlyduringthepastsixmonths.Becauseofthesetworelatedtrends,aprudentinvestorwouldbewelladvisedtosellinterestinhosandinvestinhospitalsandnursinghomesinstead.Inthefirstce,theauthorprovidesnoevidencetosupporttheclaimthatthepopulationasawholeisagingandthatthehooccupancyrateingeneralisdeclining.Theexamplecited,whilesuggestiveofthesetrends,isinsufficienttowarranttheirtruthbecausethereisnoreasontobelievethatdatadrawnfromthisunnamedregionisrepresentativeoftheentirecountry.Forexample,iftheregionfromwhichthedatawasgatheredwasFlorida,itwouldclearlybeunrepresentative.Thereasonforthisisobvious.Floridaispopulatedbyadisproportionatenumberofretiredpeopleover65yearsoldandisaverypopularvacationdestinationduringthewintermonths.Moreover,resorthooccupancyinFloridatypicallydeclinessignificantlyduringthesummermonths.Misapplied 11Thefollowingappearedinalocalnewspaper“Accordingtoarecentnationwidesurvey,agreaterpercentageofournation’scominofdepressiontodaythaneverbefore.HereinthetownofSeaside,weneedtodomoretoensurethatourteenagersfilltheirdayswithmeaningful,productiveactivities,sothattheygrowuptobehappy,well-adjustedadults.”AlthoughtheeditorialassumesthatSeaside’steenagersaretypicalofthenation’steenagersingeneral,itsnoevidencewhatsoevertosubstantiatethisassumption.ItispossiblethattheincidenceofdepressionamongSeaside’steensisfarlowerthanthenationalaverage--lowenoughthatteendepressiondosenotposeacommunity-wideproblemforSeaside.Ifso,theeditorialcannotjustifyits mendationtothecommunity,atleastnotbasedonthenationwidesurvey.FalseCause（錯誤的因果關(guān)系Posthoc,ergopropterhoc(Afterthis,thereforebecauseof1：Thefollowingappearedaspartofanewspaper“TwoyearsagoNovaHighSchoolbegantouseinctivecomputerinstructioninthreeacademicsubjects.Theschooldropoutratedeclinedimmediay,andlastyear’sgraduateshavereportedsomeimpressiveachievementsincollege.Infuturebudgetstheschoolboardshoulduseagreaterportionoftheavailablefundstobuymorecomputers,andallschoolsinthedistrictshouldadoptinctivecomputerinstructionthroughoutthecurriculum.”Tobeginwith,thisargumentisaclassicinstanceof“afterthis,thereforebecauseofthis”reasoning.Themerefactthattheintroductionofinctivecomputerinstructionprecededtheimpressiveperformanceofrecentgraduatesandthedeclineinthedropoutrateisinsufficienttoconcludethatitwasthecauseoftheseevents.Manyotherfactorscouldbringaboutthesesameresults.Forexample,theschoolmayhaveimplementedcounselingandtrainingprogramsthatbettermeettheneedsofstudentswhomightotherwiseleaveschooltotakejobs.Inaddition,theschoolmayhaveintroducedprogramstobetterpreparestudentsforcollege.2：Thefollowingappearedintheeditorialsectionofa“Aspublicconcernoverdrugabusehasincreased,have emorevigilantintheireffortstopreventillegaldrugsfromenteringthecountry.Manydrugtraffickershaveconsequentlyswitchedfrommarijuana,whichisbulky,or ,whichhasamarkettoosmalltojustifytheriskofseverepunishment,toe.Thus,enmenteffortshaveironicallyresultedinanobservedincreaseintheillegaluseofe.”Inthefirstce,theauthorhasengagedin“afterthis,thereforebecauseofthis”reasoning.Theonlyreasonofferedforbelievingthattheincreasedvigilancecausedtheincreaseineuseisthefactthattheformerprecededthelatter.Noadditionalevidencelikingthetwoeventsisofferedintheargument,thusleavingopenthepossibilitythatthetwoeventsarenotcausallyrelatedbutmerelycorrelated.Thisinturnleavesopenthepossibilitythatfactorsotherthantheonecitedareresponsiblefortheincreaseineuse.CorrelationtoCausation.(相關(guān)關(guān)系誤以為是因果關(guān)系例子1：Thefollowingappearedinamemofromaevisionnetwork’sprogrammingdirector.“Parentsofyoungchildrenare ingincreasinglyconcernedabouthowdepictionsofonevisionmightinfluenceachild’sbehaviorandattitudes.Duringthepastyear,theratingsforinordertoboostourprime-timeratings,weshouldreceRealCrimewithasituationcomedyTheargumentreliesonanunprovencause-andeffectrelationshipbetweencertainparentalconcernsandtheshowsratingsproblem.Thedirectorhasnotruledoutotherpossiblecausesfortheshow’sratingsdecline—forexample,achangeintheshow’sspecifictimeslot.Ifitturnsoutthattheshow’sratingsproblemhasnothingtodowithit’sdepictionsof ,thensimplyrecingtheshowwithonethatcontainsno willprobablynotsolvetheproblem. ogy類比錯誤1：ThefollowingappearedaspartofanannualreportsenttostockholdersbyOlympicFoods,aprocessoroffrozenfoods.“Overtime,thecostsofprocessinggodownbecauseasorganizationlearnhowtodothingsbetter, emoreefficient.Incolorfilmprocessing,forexample,thecostofa3-by-5-inchprintfellfrom50centsforfive-dayservicein1970to20centsforone-dayservicein1984.Thesameprincipleappliestotheprocessingoffood.AndsinceOlympicFoodswillsooncelebrateitstwenty-fifthbirthday,wecanexpectthatourlongexperiencewillenableustominimizecostsandthusizeprofits.”Second,itishighlydoubtfulthatthefactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustryareapplicabletothefood-processingindustry.Differencesbetweenthetwoindustriesclearlyoutweighthesimilarities,thusmakingtheogyhighly.Forexample,problemsofspoilage,contamination,andtimelytransportationallaffectthefoodindustrybutarevirtuallyabsentinthefilm-processingindustry.Problemssuchasthesemightpresentinsurmountableobstaclesthatpreventloweringfood-processingcostsinthefuture.Allthingsare例子1：Thefollowingappearedinapoliticaln“ResidentsofthisstateshouldvotetoelectKravitzasstateernorinthe ingelection.DuringKravitz’sfinaltermasastatesenator,shewasamemberofaspeciallegislativecommitteethatexploredwaysthestatecanreduceitsescalatingrateofviolentcrime.ElectKravitzforernor,andourcitiesstreetswillbesaferthanever.”AssumingthatatonetimeKravitzwasgenuinelycommittedtofightingviolentcrime,theadunfairlyinfersasimilarcommitmentanKravitz’sparttodayandinthefuturewhileKravitzservesasernor.Kravitzmightholdentirelydifferentviewstoday,especiallyifherparticipationasmemberofthecommitteeoccurredsometimeago.LackingbetterevidencethatasernorKravitzwouldcontinuetomakecrime-fightingahighpriority,TheadcannotpersuademetovoteforKravitzbasedonhercommitteemembership.Appealtoignorance(either-orchoiceblackorwhitereasoningfalse例子1：某地區(qū)蜥蜴數(shù)量大減 例子2：某商店零-----》該商店受歡迎，顧客沒意3ThefollowingappearedinanAviaAirlinesdepartmental“Onaverage,9outofevery1000passengerswhotraveledonAviaAirlineslastyearfiledacomintaboutourbaggage-handlingprocedures.Thismeansthatalthoughsome1percentofourpassengerswereunhappywiththoseprocedures,theoverwhelmingmajoritywerequitesatisfiedwiththem;thusitwouldappearthatareviewoftheproceduresisnotimportanttoourgoalofmaintainingorincreasingthenumberofAvia’spassengers.”First,theargumentturnsontheassumptionthatthe99percentofAviapassengerswhodidcominwerehappywiththeairline’sbaggage-handlingprocedures.However,theauthorprovidesnoevidencetosupportthisassumption.Thefactthatontheaverage,9outof1000passengerstookthetimeandefforttoformallycominindicatesnothingabouttheexperiencesorattitudesoftheremaining991.Itispossiblethatmanypassengersweredispleasedbuttoobusytoformallycomin,whileothershadnoopinionatall.Lackingmorecompleteinformationaboutpassengers’attitudes,wecannotassumethatthegreatmajorityofpassengerswhodidnotcominwerehappy.One1ThefollowingappearedinamemofromthecustomerservicedivisiontothemanagerofMammonSavingsandLoan.“Webelievethatimprovedcustomerserviceisthebestwayforustodifferentiateourselvesfromcompetitorsandattractnewcustomers.Wecanofferourcustomersbetterservicebyreducingwaitingtimeinlerlinesfromanaverageofsixminutestoanaverageofthree.Byopeningforbusinessat8:30insteadof9:00,andbyremainingopenforanadditionalhourbeyondourcurrentclosingtime,wewillbebetterableto modatethebusyschedulesofourcustomers.Thesechangeswillenhanceourbank’simageasthemostcustomer-friendlybankintownandgiveustheedgeoverourcompetition.”Thirdly,theauthorassumesthatMammoncatoffertheseimprovedserviceswithoutsacrificinganyothercurrentfeaturesthatattractcustomers.Infact,