xx電信市場分析

RomanianTelecomMarketOverview

Presentation

ZileleBIZ

Bucharest,October2004天馬行空官方博客：://；；QQ群heRomaniantelecommarkethassteadilyincreasedoverthelastfiveyearswithmobiletelephonyplayingtheleadingroleSource:RolandBergerStrategyConsultantsestimatesandanalysisMobiletelephonyFixedtelephonyInternetandotherdatatransmissionservicesEvolutionoftheRomaniantelecommarket1)[EURm]BreakdownofRomaniantelecommarketbysegments,2003[%]CAGR=8.5%Note:1)Includingfixedtelephonyservices,mobiletelephonyservices,Internet,datatransmissionandleasedlines;excludinginternaltelecomservicesonowninfrastructureofTeletransandTelecomunicatiiCFR3Source:MCTI,ANRC,OTE,ITU,RolandBergeranalysisThefixedtelecommunicationinfrastructurehasdevelopedconstantlyoverthelastyearsNote:E=EstimateDevelopmentofthenumberoffixedtelephonelines[m]andpenetrationrate[%],2000–2004CAGR=3.3%4Afterasignificantdropin2003thefixedtelephonymarketisexpectedtoslightlygrowin2004mainlyduetoincreasedconsumptionEvolutionoffixedtelephonymarket1),2000–2004[EURm]Comments868903921825860The2003dropofthemarketwasmainlyduetolowertariffsinrealtermsascomparedto2002,aswellasshrinkinginterconnectionandfixed–to–mobiletariffsMoreovernewplayersemergingaftertheopeningupofthefixedlinemarketledtodecreasesintariffsforinternationalcallsandsubsequentlylong–distancecallsInspiteofthe2004soarintariffsforlocalcalls,RomtelecomislikelytodecreasethesetariffsoncecompetitionmakeswayinthelocalcallssegmentaswellNotes:1)IncludinginternationalprivateleasedcircuitsE=EstimateSource:ANRC,RolandBergerestimatesandanalysis5678DuetotherapiddevelopmentofthemobilecommunicationinRomania,thepenetrationratewillexceed39%bytheendof2004Growthinthenumberofusers1)[thou]andthepenetrationrate[%],1998–2004Source:ANRC,RolandBergerestimatesandanalysisNote:1)Totalnumberofuserswascalculatedbasedonoperators’dataregardingmobilephoneend–users,exceptforZapp,whichonlyprovidedthenumberofclientsandnotthenumberofend–users;E=EstimateCAGR=54%9Source:MCTI,ANRC,OTE,ITU,RolandBergeranalysisThemobiletelephonymarkethasstronglyincreasedinthelastyearsandthetrendistocontinueinthefutureNote:1)Includingallservicesofferedbymobileoperators;E=EstimateEvolutionofthemobiletelephonymarket1),2000–2004[EURm]CAGR=17.5%CommentsBolsteredbycontinuousupsurgeofthecustomerbasethevalueofthemobiletelephonymarketgrewsteadilyoverthelastfiveyearsIn2003,themarketaveragerevenueperuser(ARPU)hasstabilizedatapproximatelyUSD165–170similartolevelsregisteredin2002AstheadditionalusersusuallyhavelowerARPUlevelsthantheexistingcustomers,theoperatorsstartedtofostersalesofnon-voiceservicesthusincreasingtheaddedvalue101112NumberofweeklyInternetusers(thou)Source:RNC,ISPs,RolandBergerStrategyConsultantsestimatesandanalysis2000200120022003ERomaniaregisteredoneofthehighestgrowthoftheInternetpenetrationrateintheregioninthelastyears+244%CommentsTheInternetaccessanddatatransmission,includingalsotheleasedbusinesslinesmarketisestimatedatapproximatelyEUR67min2003ThemaingrowthdriverwillbethebroadbandconnectionsasalargernumberofcompaniesareseekingforhighqualityandspeedtransmissionsThereisacleartrend