華孚色紡的研究報告中英對照樣本

華孚色紡HuafuTopDyedMelangeYarn迅速反映是核心競爭力，產(chǎn)業(yè)升級+中西部產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)移提高發(fā)展空間RapidresponseisthecorecompetitivenessandindustrialupgradingplusrelocationofproductioncapacitytotheMidwestenhancesspacefordevelopment.公司1季度業(yè)績預(yù)告0.32元，好于預(yù)期，咱們上調(diào)了賺錢預(yù)測。HuafuTopDyedMelangeYarnCo.,Ltd(the“company”)releasedthenoticeof1QresultsofRMB0.32,whichisbetterthanexpected.Wereviseduptheearningsforecast.預(yù)測10-營業(yè)收入為37/43/50億元，收入復(fù)合增長率16%，凈利潤分別為2.81/3.42/4.63億元，復(fù)合增長率近30%，相應(yīng)10-EPS為1.20/1.45/1.97元（未攤薄股本）。RevenueisestimatedtobeRMB3.7/4.3/5.0bnin-withrevenueCAGRof16%；netprofitwillbeRMB281mn/342mn/463mnwithCAGRofnearly30%，implyingEPSRMB1.20/1.45/1.97(withoutconsideringcapitalstockdilutionduetoprivateplacement)in-.當(dāng)前股價21元，相應(yīng)PE為17.5倍，預(yù)測今年下半年完畢增發(fā)，增發(fā)攤薄業(yè)績后PE為18倍，估值較低。ThecurrentclosingpriceofRMB21implies17.5×PEin.Theprivateplacementisexpectedtobecompletedin2H，representing18×PEinafterdilution.Valuationisrelativelylow.考慮到色紡紗行業(yè)前景遼闊、公司成長性較好，咱們以為可以予以23-25倍PE，目的價27-29元，上調(diào)評級至“買入”。Takingintoaccountthebrightprospectsfordyedmelangeyarnindustryandpotentialgoodgrowthofthecompany，webelievewecangive23-25×PEinandtargetpriceofRMB27-29andupgraderatingto"Buy".1、 色紡紗行業(yè)在國內(nèi)獲得迅速發(fā)展，重要與兩方面關(guān)于：1. DyedmelangeyarnindustryachievedrapiddevelopmentinChina，mainlyduetotwofactors:（1）紗線、服裝近年來增長率均超過10%，色紡紗作為新型紗線將某些代替老式紗線，會有更快增長，增速在15-20%；(1)bothgrowthofyarnandthatofclothingexceeded10%inrecentyears.Asanewtypeyarn，dyedmelangeyarnwillpartlytakeplaceoftraditionalyarnandtherewillbefastergrowthat15-20%;（2）當(dāng)前色紡紗運用領(lǐng)域為毛衫40%、針織面料20%、梭織面料5%，隨著色紡紗在梭織、家紡等面料新領(lǐng)域運用拓展，將拉動需求持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長。(2)Theapplicationareasofdyedmelangeyarnaresweater(40%)，knittedfabrics(20%)andwovenfabrics(5%).withdyedmelangeyarnusedinnewareassuchasweaving，textile，etc.itwilldrivesteadygrowthindemand.2、 關(guān)于公司增長，咱們以為來自產(chǎn)能持續(xù)擴張與產(chǎn)品構(gòu)造優(yōu)化提高毛利率：2. Withrespecttothecompany'sgrowth，webelievethatcontinuedexpansionofproductioncapacityandproductmixoptimizationwillenhancegrossprofitmargin:（1）銷量：考慮普通紗線產(chǎn)能技改和增發(fā)項目投產(chǎn)，預(yù)測年均銷量增長在15%左右；(1)Sales：Consideringordinaryyarnproductioncapacitytransformationandprojectsfundedthroughprivateplacementareputintooperation，annualsalesvolumeisexpectedtogrowabout15%;（2）毛利率：今年一季度紗線與棉花價差擴大，闡明需求拉動能將成本上升壓力傳導(dǎo)出去，隨著高毛利品種占比增長，將來3年構(gòu)造優(yōu)化使毛利率從18%提高至21%。(2)grossmargin：pricespreadbetweenyarnandcottonwidenedin1Q，showingthatdemand-pullcanshiftcostincreasepressuretocustomers.Withtheincreasedproportionofhighmarginproducttypes，productmixoptimizationwillaugmentgrossprofitmarginfrom18%to21%withinthenextthreeyears.1、 市場也許以為紡織是老式行業(yè)，競爭激烈、增速較慢。咱們以為，色紡紗是紡織業(yè)“藍海”，在國內(nèi)尚處起步階段，生產(chǎn)過程“節(jié)水減排”污染小，符合“低碳”規(guī)定；產(chǎn)品色彩潮流自然，深受“快潮流”品牌服裝公司愛慕，市場空間遼闊。1.Themarketmaythinkthatasatraditionalindustry，textilesectorischaracteristicofintensecompetitionandslowergrowth.Butwebelievethatdyedmelangeyarnis"blueocean"inthetextileindustryandstillattheinitialstageinChina.Itsproductionprocessmeetsthe"lowcarbon"requirementswithfeaturesof"watersavingandemissionreduction".Thereisvastpotentialmarketasnaturalandfashionableproductcolorsareverypopularamong"fastfashion”brandclothingenterprises.2、 咱們以為，華孚戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃高瞻遠矚，其發(fā)展途徑反映紡織行業(yè)“調(diào)節(jié)振興規(guī)劃”思路：2.Inourview，thestrategicplanningofHuafuisvisionaryanditsdevelopmentpathreflectstheideaof“restructuringandrejuvenationplanning"forthetextileindustry:（1）模式創(chuàng)新：華孚把紗線品牌推向終端，前導(dǎo)入下游品牌服裝公司研發(fā)設(shè)計環(huán)節(jié)，通過提供色卡來制造原則、創(chuàng)造需求，“迅速反映”是核心競爭力體現(xiàn)；(1)ModelInnovation：HuafupromotestheyarnbrandtoendusersandparticipatesinR&Danddesignprocessofdownstreamgarmentcompanies.Itsetsupstandardandcreatesdemandbyprovidingcolorcards."Rapidresponse"istheembodimentofitscorecompetitiveness;（2）產(chǎn)業(yè)升級：一方面，將收購坯紗坯布產(chǎn)能改造為色紡紗產(chǎn)能，另一方面，通過優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品構(gòu)造，增長高利潤率新品種占比來提高賺錢能力；(2)industrialupgrading：Ontheonehand，Huafutransformsacquiredrawyarns/fabricscapacityintodyedmelangeyarncapacity.Ontheotherhand，Itincreasestheproportionofhigh-marginnewvarietiestoimproveprofitabilitybyoptimizingproductmix;（3）產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)移：公司具備很強收購兼并能力，規(guī)劃將要形成浙江、安徽、江西、新疆四大產(chǎn)業(yè)基地，因勢利導(dǎo)向中西部腹地擴展，結(jié)合運用東部研發(fā)優(yōu)勢和中西部勞動力和資源優(yōu)勢。(3)Relocationofproductioncapacity：WithitsstrongM&Acapability，thecompanyplanstodevelopfourmajorindustrialbasesinZhejiang，Anhui，JiangxiandXinjiang，capitalizingonthetrendofexpansionintocentralandwesternhinterlandandmakinguseofbotheasternR&DstrengthsandadvantagesoflaborandresourcesintheMidwest.1、 一季報業(yè)績同比增長200-250%（雖然考慮標資產(chǎn)同口徑增長也在50-60%），重要由于09上半年有處置原飛亞股份虧損業(yè)務(wù)；1.1Q10resultsrecordedgrowthof200-250%YOY(50-60%wheneventakingintoaccountthegrowthofunderlyingassetsbythesamecaliber)，whichismainlyduetodisposalofloss-makingbusinessofformerAnhuiFeiyaTextileCo.,Ltdin1H09.2、非公開增發(fā)方案獲證監(jiān)會通過。2.Thefollow-onprivateplacementproposalwasapprovedbytheCSRC.風(fēng)險：公司海外市場占比38%，人民幣升值也許帶來負面影響；原料價格上漲風(fēng)險。Risk：RMBappreciationmayhaveanegativeimpactastheCompany’soverseasmarketaccountsfor38%ofitssalesrevenue；riskofincreaseinrawmaterialprices.1.色紡紗行業(yè)前景遼闊，是紡織業(yè)“藍?！?.Asthetextileindustry's"Blue色紡紗符合“低碳制造”規(guī)定，典型“節(jié)水減排”產(chǎn)品1.1Dyedmelangeyarnisconsistentwith"low-carbonmanufacturing"requirementsandisakindoftypical"watersavingandemissionreduction"product.色紡紗是近年來流行一種具備獨特混色效果新型紗線，發(fā)展前景遼闊。Dyedmelangeyarnisanewtypeofyarnpopularinrecentyearswithauniqueblendingeffectandbroaddevelopmentprospects.從生產(chǎn)工藝流程看，色紡紗是先將原色纖維染成有色纖維，將兩種或兩種以上有色纖維或原色纖維混紡成紗，紗線自身可以帶有漸變色。Fromtheperspectiveofproductionprocess，dyedmelangeyarnprocessfirstdyesprimarycolorfiber，andthenblendstwoormorecoloredfibersorprimarycolorfiberstospinintoyarn，whichitselfcanbecoloredwithagradient.用色紡紗線制成面料具備多色彩、手感柔和、表面豐滿、附加值高等長處，合用于針織、毛衫、機織等各種領(lǐng)域，是中高檔面料首選紗線。Fabricsmadefromdyedmelangeyarnarecharacteristicofmulti-color，soft，richsurface，highvalue-addedadvantageswhichareappropriateforknitting，sweaters，weavingandmanyotherfields.Dyedmelangeyarnisthetoppickforhigh-gradefabric.當(dāng)前用色紡紗制成針織物在國內(nèi)外十分流行，ZARA、H&M、美特斯邦威等服飾品牌都大量使用色紡紗，下游消費群體正在逐漸壯大，因而對色紡紗需求逐年上升，行業(yè)發(fā)展前景遼闊。Nowknittedfabricmadewithdyedmelangeyarnisverypopularathomeandabroad.AsZARA，H&M，Metersbonweandotherclothingbrandsmakeextensiveuseofdyedmelangeyarnanddownstreamconsumergroupisgrowing，thedemandfordyedmelangeyarnrisesannuallyandtheindustryofdyedmelangeyarnhasbroadprospects.圖1：色紡紗是新型紗線，色彩自然柔和Fig.1：Dyedmelangeyarnisanewtypeofyarnwithsoftandnaturalcolor與老式色織布、印染布相比，色紡紗顛倒行業(yè)流程，將染色環(huán)節(jié)提前到纖維某些，先對某些纖維染色后再混紡成帶色彩紗線，而色織布是對紗線染色，匹染布則是對坯布染色。Comparedwithtraditionalcolorwovenclothandprintinganddyeingcloth，dyedmelangeyarnreversestheindustryproductionprocessbyputtingdyeinglinktotheearlierfiberprocessingpart：firstdyeingpartofthefibersandthenthedyedfibersareblendspuntocoloryarn.Incontrast，itisyarnthatisdyedforcolorwovenclothandrawfabricforpiecedyedcloth.因而，色紡紗具備環(huán)保、潮流、高科技特點：Therefore，dyedmelangeyarnfeaturesenvironmentalprotection，fashion，andhigh-tech：圖2：色紡紗生產(chǎn)工藝中需要將染色纖維與原色纖維混紡，以形成紗線混色效果Fig.2：Theproductionprocessofdyedmelangeyarnneedstoblenddyedfiberswithprimarycolorfiberstoformamixcoloreffect色紡紗生產(chǎn)工藝流程Dyedmélangeyarnproductionprocess原色纖維染色Dyingprimarycolorfiber染色纖維Dyedfiber原色纖維Primarycolorfiber配棉Cottonassorti混棉Cottonblendi清花Cottoncleani梳棉combi預(yù)并Pre-dr并條drawin精梳Fine粗紗Grayyarn細紗Fineyarn捻線twistin絡(luò)筒windin包裝Packaging（1）環(huán)保性：由于色紡紗直接對某些纖維染色，染色纖維平均占比在35%左右，因而使用染料和耗費水比例也較小，對總體環(huán)境污染比老式“先紡后染”產(chǎn)品減少50%以上，符合“低碳制造”時代規(guī)定，是紡織業(yè)中“節(jié)水減排”產(chǎn)品。（1）Environmentalprotection：Asdyedmelangeyarnprocessdirectlydyespartofthefiberswithaverageproportionofdyeingfibersbeing35%，theproportionofusedyesandwateruseswillbeless，reducingtheoverallenvironmentalpollutionbymorethan50%comparedwiththetraditional"dyeingafterspinning"productsandmeetingtherequirementsoftheeraof"low-carbonmanufacturing".Thusitistheproductfeaturing“watersavingandemissionreduction”.（2）潮流性：色紡紗在同一根紗線上顯現(xiàn)出各種顏色，色彩豐富、飽滿柔和，用色紡紗織成面料具備朦朧立體效果，做成服裝后顏色含蓄、自然，這種返璞歸真風(fēng)格受到了歐美國家以及國內(nèi)年輕人喜歡，符合個性化、多樣化、潮流化服裝發(fā)展趨勢。（2）Fashion：dyedmelangeyarnshowsavarietyofcolorsonasingleyarnwithrichandsoftstyle.Fabricwovenwithdyedmelangeyarnhasahazythree-dimensionaleffectandasubtleandnaturalstylewhenmadeintogarments，whichareverypopularamongyoungpeoplebothinChinaandintheEuropeanandAmericancountriesastheyareinlinewithindividualized，diversifiedandfashionableclothingdevelopmenttrend.（3）科技性：色紡紗將老式紡織工序進行了顛倒，把染環(huán)節(jié)提到紡紗之前，工藝變化后來，可以做成由棉、麻、毛、絲、化纖等各種原料混紡而成紗線，其長處：一是完全解決了坯布染色缸差問題，色紡只要顏色擬定，可以做到批量無限；（3）Technology：dyedmelangeyarnprocessreversestraditionaltextileprocessbyputtingdyeingbeforespinning.Thisprocesschangeenablesyarnspunfromblendrawmaterialsincludingcotton，hemp，wool，silk，chemicalfiber，etc.Itsadvantagesare：First，itcompletelysolvestheproblemofcylinderdifferenceofrawfabricdyeing.Oncethecolorisdeterminedforspinning，unlimitedbatchescanbeproduced；二是色紡解決了各種不同物理特性織物染色問題，各種纖維混合紡織，可以產(chǎn)生性能互補作用，色紡予以了面料無限發(fā)展空間。Second，dyedmelangeyarnsolvestheproblemofdyeingofavarietyoftextilefabricswithdifferentphysicalcharacteristics，andblendspinningofmixedfiberscanproduceperformance-complementaryeffect.Inaword，dyedmelangeyarnprovidesfabricswithunlimitedroomfordevelopment.圖3：色紡紗與老式色織布、匹染布相比，具備色彩豐富、污染小特點Fig.3：Comparedwithtraditionalcolorwovenclothandpiecedyedcloth，dyedmelangeyarnhascharacteristicsofrichercolorandlesspollution.色紡紗與色織布、匹染布比較Comparisonbetweendyedmelangeyarnandcolorwovenclothandpiecedyedcloth織造、染整流程weavinganddyeingprocess纖維Fiber紗線Yarn織物Fabric纖維染色Dyeingfiber紗線染色Dyeingyarn布匹染色Dyeingfabric種類名稱Types色紡紗dyedmelangeyarn色織布Colorwovenfabric匹染布Piecedyed工序特點Processfeatures對紗線先染色再織布，色彩豐富、色牢度高dyeingtheyarnbeforeweaving，richcolorandhighcolorfastness先對纖維染色，再將兩種或各種顏色纖維混合后紡紗，具備較好混色效果Firstfiberdyeing，andthenblendingfibersoftwoormorecolorsbeforespinning，withgoodmixedcoloreffect先織布再印染，色彩單一Weavingbeforedyeing，monotone色彩Color豐富rich單一monotone環(huán)保Environmentprotection污染小Lesspollution污染大Morepollution順應(yīng)“潮流”潮流，色紡紗行業(yè)增速有望達到15-20%1.2Followingthe"fashion"trend，dyedmelangeyarnindustrygrowthisexpectedtoreach15-20%色紡紗90年代初引入中華人民共和國，行業(yè)在國內(nèi)發(fā)展不久。SincedyedmelangeyarnwasintroducedintoChinainearly1990s，theindustrydevelopedrapidlyinChina.色紡紗來源于19世紀歐洲，當(dāng)代意大利仍有諸多色紡紗小作坊，歐洲是全球高品位色紡紗匯集地，產(chǎn)品潮流度高，但產(chǎn)量很低；Dyedmelangeyarnoriginatedin19thcenturyEurope,andinmodernItalytherearestillalotofdyedmelangeyarnworkshops.Europeistheconcentratedareaoftheworld'stopdyedmelangeyarnwithhighlyfashionableproductsbutverylowproduction;20世紀60-70年代，色紡紗行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移至日本、韓國和臺灣，這些地區(qū)重要生產(chǎn)中高檔色紡紗，但近年來成本優(yōu)勢逐漸喪失；In1960-70s,theindustryofdyedmelangeyarnwasshiftedtoJapan，KoreaandTaiwan.Theseregionsaremainlyengagedinproductionofmidandhigh-gradedyedmelangeyarn，butinrecentyearstheyexperiencedthegraduallossofcostadvantages.20世紀90年代初期，色紡紗被引入中華人民共和國，近十年來迅速發(fā)展，涌現(xiàn)出華孚、百隆這樣色紡紗行業(yè)龍頭，成為色紡紗市場主導(dǎo)者。Inearly1990s，dyedmelangeyarnwasintroducedintoChinaandenjoyedtherapiddevelopmentoverthepastdecadewiththeemergenceofleadingplayerssuchasHuafuTopDyedMelangeYarnandBrosHoldingLimitedthatdominateddyedmelangeyarnmarket.圖4：色紡紗行業(yè)來源于歐洲，90年代被引入中華人民共和國并迅速成長Fig.4：DyedmelangeyarnindustrywasoriginatedinEuropeandintroducedintoChinain1990sandexperiencedrapidgrowth色紡紗行業(yè)發(fā)展歷程Historyofdyedmelangeyarnindustrydevelopment19世紀19thcentury歐洲Europe意大利色紡紗多為手工作坊生產(chǎn)，是全球高品位色紡紗匯集地，產(chǎn)品潮流度高，但產(chǎn)量很低。DyedmelangeyarnwasproducedwithhandsinworkshopsinItaly，thefocusoftheworld'shigh-endDyedmelangeyarnproductswhichishighlyfashionableyetwithlowoutput.1960-1970年代1960-1970s日本、韓國、臺灣Japan,SouthKorea,Taiwan日本、韓國、臺灣重要生產(chǎn)中高檔色紡紗，但近年來成本優(yōu)勢逐漸喪失。Japan，SouthKoreaandTaiwanaremainlyproducedhigh-gradedyedmelangeyarn，buttheygraduallylosttheircostadvantagesinrecentyears.1990年代初Early1990s中華人民共和國大陸Mainland90年代初在浙江沿海地區(qū)興起，近十年來發(fā)展迅速，已成為世界色紡紗市場主導(dǎo)者。itwasrisingincoastalareasinZhejianginearly1990s，experiencedrapidgrowthduringthelastdecade，nowChina'smanufacturersbecometheleaderintheglobaldyedmelangeyarn.咱們以為，色紡紗行業(yè)在中華人民共和國獲得如此快發(fā)展，重要與如下兩方面關(guān)于：WebelievethatdyedmelangeyarnindustryinChinahasmadesuchrapiddevelopmentmainlyduetothefollowingtwofactors：下游紗線、服裝近年來強勁增長拉動色紡紗行業(yè)迅速增長。（1） Rapidgrowthofdyedmelangeyarnindustrywaspulledbystronggrowthindownstreamyarnandclothingsectorsinrecentyears.國內(nèi)紗線產(chǎn)量底已達到2406萬噸，紗線行業(yè)00-產(chǎn)量復(fù)合增長率達到16%；國內(nèi)服裝市場01-零售額復(fù)合增長率也達到14%。China'syarnproductionhasreached24.06milliontonsbytheendof.TheCAGRoftheyarnindustryreached16%in00-09;色紡紗作為新型紗線，會獲得快于紗線及服裝增速。Asanewtypeofyarn，dyedmelangeyarnwillachievefastergrowththanordinaryyarnandclothing.色紡紗在面料中運用領(lǐng)域不斷拓寬。最早應(yīng)用于毛紡，日后逐漸在棉紡、麻紡等行業(yè)推廣應(yīng)用。（2） Applicationareasofdyedmelangeyarninthefabrichasbeenbroadening.Dyedmelangeyarnwasfirstusedinwoolspinningandthengraduallyexpandedintoincottonspinning，linenspinningandotherindustries.當(dāng)前色紡紗在服裝面料領(lǐng)域中應(yīng)用比例分別為：毛衫40%、針織面料20%、梭織面料5%左右。Currentlytheproportionsofdyedmelangeyarnusedinthesegmentsoffabricwere：sweater，40%；knittedfabric,20%;wovenfabric，5%.隨著人們服裝品位提高，以及對自然色追求，色紡紗在紡織面料中應(yīng)用比例將會逐漸提高。Withtheenhancementofpeople'sclothingtasteandthepursuitofthenaturalcolors，dyedmelangeyarnwillaccountformoreandmoreshareinthetextilefabric.圖5：國內(nèi)紗線行業(yè)00-復(fù)合增長率達到16%Fig.5：TheCAGRofChina'syarnindustryreached16%in00-09圖6：國內(nèi)服裝市場01-零售額復(fù)合增長率達到14%Fig.6：CAGRofretailsalesofclothingmarketinChinareached14%in01-09圖7：色紡紗在面料中運用領(lǐng)域不斷拓寬Fig.7：Applicationareasofdyedmelangeyarninthefabrichasbeenbroadeningthefabricoftheuseofexpandingthescopeof色紡紗在不同面料中運用狀況及發(fā)展usesofdyedmelangeyarnindifferent成熟階段Mature毛紡面料（占40%）Woolfabric（40%）毛衫應(yīng)用相對成熟，外衣化是增長重要方向。Theapplicationinsweatersisrelativelymature，coatisthemaindirectionofgrowth發(fā)展階段Developing針織面料（占20%）Knittedfabric（20%）針織面料領(lǐng)域應(yīng)用勢頭較好，運動服裝面料、家居服面料、戶外服裝面料是重要增長點。Applicationinknittedfabricsisgainingmomentum，sportsapparelfabrics，homeattirefabric，outdoorfabricarethemaingrowthpoints.起步階段Initial梭織面料（占5%）Wovenfabric（5%）梭織面料領(lǐng)域應(yīng)用尚在起步階段，增長潛力巨大，特別是家用紡織面料、襯衣及休閑面料領(lǐng)域應(yīng)用。Applicationinwovenfabricshasjuststartedwithhugegrowthpotential，especiallyinhometextilefabrics，shirtsandcasualfabrics.當(dāng)前色紡紗占紗線比例只有2%，將來占比有望進一步提高。Dyedmelangeyarnnowaccountsforonly2%ofyarn，andtheproportionisexpectedtofurtherimprovegoingforward.國內(nèi)紗線產(chǎn)量達到2406萬噸，紡紗產(chǎn)能已近億萬錠，色紡紗產(chǎn)量僅為50萬噸左右，約300萬錠，僅占紗線產(chǎn)量2%。InChina'syarnproductionreached24.06mntonsandspinningcapacitywascloseto100mnspindleyarn；outputofdyedmelangeyarnwasonly500,000tons，orabout3millionspindleyarn，accountingforonly2%ofyarnproduction.國內(nèi)色紡行業(yè)盡管已走過二十余年歷史，但就一種產(chǎn)業(yè)而言還處在起步階段。AlthoughChina'sDyedMelangeYarnindustryhasgonethrough20yearsofhistory，itisstillinitsinfancy.依照北京華靈四方投資征詢公司發(fā)布《中華人民共和國色紡行業(yè)研究報告》，色紡、混紡等新型紗線需求隨著消費構(gòu)造升級將以高出普通紗線二倍速度增長。Accordingtothe"ChinaDyedMelangeYarnIndustryReport"releasedbyBeijingHLConsultingCo.，Ltd.，thedemandfordyedmelangeyarn，blendedyarnandothernewtypeyarngrowstwotimesfasterthanordinaryyarnswithupgradingoftheconsumptionstructure.咱們預(yù)測，將來5-色紡紗行業(yè)增速將保持在15-20%左右。Weexpectwithinthenext5-10yearsdyedmelangeyarnindustry‘sgrowthratewillremainataround15-20%.如果下游用紗公司更進一步結(jié)識到色紡紗產(chǎn)品比較優(yōu)勢，并逐漸形成色紡、色織、布染色三分天下局面，那么，色紡紗產(chǎn)業(yè)就規(guī)模而言保守預(yù)計將超過萬紗錠，產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展空間十分遼闊。Ifthedownstreamyarn-consumingenterprisesfurtherrecognizecomparativeadvantageofdyedmelangeyarnproducts，andgraduallyformamarketdominatedbydyedmelangeyarn，coloredweaving，andfabricdyeing,thenaconservativeestimateofthescaleofdyedmelangeyarnindustrywouldbemorethan20mnspindles，andtheindustryhaswidedevelopmentspace.圖8：國內(nèi)色紡紗產(chǎn)量占紗線產(chǎn)量比例僅為2%Fig.8：China'sdyedmelangeyarnoutputaccountsforonly2%oftotalyarnoutput1.3行業(yè)雙寡頭壟斷格局，管理經(jīng)驗和迅速反映能力成為重要壁壘1.3WithDuopolyindustrystructure，managementexperienceandrapidresponsecapabilitybecomemajorbarrierstoentry雙寡頭壟斷競爭格局。Duopolystructureofmarketcompetition.色紡紗行業(yè)全球共有500萬錠產(chǎn)能，而中高檔色紡紗（重要指高品質(zhì)純棉紗）全球約有225萬錠產(chǎn)能。Globaldyedmelangeyarnindustryhasatotalof5millionspindleyarncapacity，inwhichmid-andhighgradedyedmelangeyarn(mainlyhigh-qualitypurecottonyarn)productioncapacityaccountsforabout2.25million.華孚色紡和寧波百隆在國內(nèi)中高檔色紡紗領(lǐng)域形成雙寡頭壟斷格局，華孚有100萬錠左右產(chǎn)能，百隆有近80萬錠產(chǎn)能。HuafuTopDyedMelangeYarnandBrosHoldingLimitedformedduopolystructureinthemarketofmid-andhigh-gradedyedmelangeyarninChina.華孚色紡在全行業(yè)產(chǎn)能占有率為20%，在中高檔色紡紗產(chǎn)能占有率為44.44%，預(yù)測華孚色紡在全行業(yè)市場份額為27.7%。HuafuhasacapacityofaroundonemillionspindleyarnwhileBrosnearly800,000.Huafuaccountsfor20%ofthecapacityintheindustryand44.44%ofmid-andhigh-gradedyedmelangeyarnproductioncapacity.MarketshareofHuafuintheindustryisexpectedtobe27.7%.圖9：華孚色紡占色紡紗全行業(yè)產(chǎn)能20% Huafuaccountsfor20%ofthecapacityintheindustryand44.44%ofmid-andhigh-gradedyedmelangeyarnproductioncapacity.MarketshareofHuafuintheindustryisexpectedtobe27.7%. 圖10：中高檔色紡紗形成華孚、百隆雙寡頭壟斷格局Fig.10：DuopolystructureformedbyHuafuandBrosinthemarketofmid-andhigh-gradedyedmelangeyarn咱們以為，在中高檔色紡紗領(lǐng)域形成雙寡頭壟斷格局，新進入者面臨如下壁壘：Webelievethatduopolystructureinthefieldofhigh-gradedyedmelangeyarnmayposethefollowingbarrierstoentry:（1） 對普通紗線公司而言，色紡紗存在生產(chǎn)工藝復(fù)雜度高、生產(chǎn)管理和產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量控制難度高、對研發(fā)能力規(guī)定高、下游客戶門檻高特點，色紡紗行業(yè)規(guī)模小且競爭格局是寡頭壟斷，也使普通紗線公司不敢貿(mào)然進入。（1） Forthecommonyarnenterprises，dyedmelangeyarnhassuchfeaturesashighcomplexityinproductionprocess，difficultyinproductionmanagementandqualitycontrol，demandingontheR&Dcapabilities，andhighthresholdofdownstreamcustomers.Commonyarnenterprisesmayhesitatetoenterthedyedmelangeyarnindustryfeaturingsmallscaleandoligopolystructure.（2） 對中低端色紡紗（重要生產(chǎn)麻灰類產(chǎn)品為主），庫存大、占款多、周轉(zhuǎn)慢是其弱勢；而中高檔色紡紗則充分運用前導(dǎo)入下游終端品牌運營商研發(fā)、設(shè)計等過程，可以迅速反映，提高供應(yīng)鏈效率。（2） Forthelowendofdyedmelangeyarn(mainlyforheathergreyproducts)，largeinventoryanduseoffundaswellasslowturnoverareitsdisadvantages.Incontrast，mid-andhighgradedyedmelangeyarnmakesfulluseofparticipationinR&Danddesignprocessofdownstreamendbrandoperatorstorespondquicklyandimprovesupplychainefficiency.表1：色紡紗與普通紗線在生產(chǎn)、管理、研發(fā)、顧客、行業(yè)格局等方面區(qū)別Table1：Differencebetweendyedmelangeyarnandordinaryyarninproduction，management，R&D，users，andindustrystructure生產(chǎn)工藝、復(fù)雜限度 Complexityofproductionprocess 產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量、控制難度 DifficultyinQualitycontrol生產(chǎn)管理難度 DifficultyinProductionmanagement對研發(fā)能力規(guī)定 RequirementonR&Dcapability下游顧客門檻 Thresholdofdownstreamcustomers行業(yè)規(guī)模與競爭格局Industrysizeandcompetitionstructure普通紗線Ordinaryyarn 門檻低，多為普通面料廠 lowthreshold，mostlyordinaryfabricfactories規(guī)模大，完全競爭Largescale，perfectcompetition色紡紗 dyedmelangeyarn門檻高 Highthreshold規(guī)模小，寡頭壟斷Smallscale，oligopoly區(qū)別Difference多余纖維染色、配棉、混棉工序 addfiberdyeingandcottonassoring，cottonblendingprocessesandspinningprocess紡紗工序需消除纖維染色對棉質(zhì)影響 needstoeliminatedyeingfiber’sinfluenceoncottonquality多品種、多批次、小批量生產(chǎn)模式；導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)管理、成本控制難度增大 需對色彩、纖維、染整和紗線進行全方位研發(fā) ProductionmodeofMulti-type，multi-batch，Smallquantity；causemoredifficultyinproductionmanagementandcostcontrol；comprehensiveR&DOncolor，fiber，dyeingandyarnisneeded 顧客多為知名潮流品牌服裝制造商 mostofcustomersarecelebratedfashionbrandproducers色紡紗行業(yè)規(guī)模只占所有紗線2%，將來發(fā)展空間大Scaleofdyedmelangeyarnaccountsfor2%yarnindustryscale，largepotentialspaceforfuturedevelopment2.重組后華孚色紡步入發(fā)展快車道2.HuafuTopDyedMelangeYarnsteppedintothefastlaneafterrestructuring2.1借殼飛亞股份，實現(xiàn)色紡紗業(yè)務(wù)整體上市2.1toachievetheoveralllistingofdyedmelangeyarnbusinessthroughbackdoorlistingwithshellcompanyofAnhuiFeiyaTextileCo.,Ltd華孚色紡股份有限公司始創(chuàng)于1993年，總部設(shè)在深圳，公司專注于開發(fā)經(jīng)營高檔新型紗線，通過發(fā)展已成為全球最大色紡紗線公司之一。HuafuTopDyedMelangeYarnCo.，Ltd.wasfoundedin1993andheadquarteredinShenzhen.Thecompanyfocusedondevelopmentandoperationofnewhigh-endyarn.After17yearsofdevelopmentithasbecomeoneoftheworld'slargestdyedmelangeyarnenterprises.公司通過借殼飛亞股份，成功將色紡紗資產(chǎn)注入上市公司，實現(xiàn)借殼上市。InthecompanysuccessfullyinjecteddyedmelangeyarnassetsintothelistedcompanybybackdoorlistingwiththeshellcompanyofAnhuiFeiyaTextileCo.,Ltd.資產(chǎn)重組過程：1月華孚控股收購淮北市國資委持有飛亞集團股權(quán)，從而控股飛亞股份。AssetreorganizationProcess：InJanuary，HuafuHoldingacquiredAnhuiFeiyaTextileCo.,Ltd.heldbySASACofHuaibeiCityandbecamecontrollingshareholderofFeiya.5月，上市公司向華孚控股、華人投資以及8位自然人增發(fā)1.35億股認購深圳華孚進出口100％股權(quán)、江西華孚40％股權(quán)、浙江縉云華孚29.7%股權(quán)以及浙江金棉紡織37.5%股權(quán)，“標資產(chǎn)”重要為色紡紗業(yè)務(wù)。InMay，thelistedcompanymadeprivateplacementof135millionsharestoHuafuHolding，ChineseInvestment，andeightnaturalpersonstoacquire100%stakeinShenzhenHuafuimportandexport，40%stakeinJiangxiHuafu，29.7%stakeinZhejiangJinyunHuafuand37.5%stakeinZhejiangJinMianFangZhi."Theunderlyingassets"aremainlycomposedofdyedmelangeyarnbusiness.TheNameofthelistedcompanywaschangedfromAnhuiFeiyaTextileintoHuafuTopDyedMelangeYarninearly.初上市公司名稱由“飛亞股份”變更為“華孚色紡”，6月公司增發(fā)新股上市，總股本增長至2.35億股，至此公司完畢了重大資產(chǎn)重組，產(chǎn)品由坯紗坯布升級為色紡紗。InJune，thenewissuesthroughprivateplacementwentpublic，increasingthetotalcapitalstockto235millionshares.Atthattimethecompanycompletedamajorreorganizationofassetsandtheproductswereupgradedfromrawyarn/fabrictodyedmelangeyarn.圖11：華孚控股是華孚色紡控股股東Fig.11：HuafuHoldingisthecontrollingshareholderofHuafuTopDyedMelangeYarn控股股東與實際控制人：資產(chǎn)重組后，華孚控股、飛亞集團和華人投資是華孚色紡股份有限公司三大股東，分別持有49.94%、10.88%和5.95%股份。Controllingshareholdersandactualcontrollers：Afterthereorganizationofassets，HuafuHoldings，F(xiàn)eiyaGroupandChineseInvestmentaretopthreeshareholdersofHuafuTopDyedMelangeYarn，holding49.94%，10.88%，and5.95%ofthesharesrespectively.其中華孚控股是公司控股股東，共計持有上市公司60.82%股份。HuafuHoldingisthecontrollingshareholder，holding60.82%stakeintotalinthelistedcompany.華孚控股股東為孫偉挺先生和陳玲芬女士兩位自然人；孫偉挺先生和陳玲芬女士為夫妻關(guān)系，分別持有華孚控股50%股權(quán)。TheshareholdersofHuafuHoldingareMr.SunWeitingandMsChenLingfen，twonaturalpersons；Mr.SunWeitingandMsChenLingfenarehusbandandwife，eachhaving50%stakeofHuafuHolding.孫偉挺、陳玲芬夫婦共計控制我司66.77%股份，為我司實際控制人。SunWeiTingandChenLingfentogethercontrolled66.77%ofthecompany’ssharesandassucharetheactualcontrollersofthecompany.通過多次收購兼并后，華孚控股將色紡紗資產(chǎn)注入上市公司，華孚色紡旗下有十各種子公司。Throughseveralmergersandacquisitions，HuafuHoldingsinjecteddyedmelangeyarnassetsintothelistedcompany.HuafuTopDyedMelangeYarnhasmorethan10subsidiaries.圖12：華孚色紡及旗下子公司股權(quán)關(guān)系Fig.12：HuafuTopDyedMelangeYarn’shareholdinginitssubsidiaries注：藍色虛線框中為注入上市公司“標資產(chǎn)”。Note：Thebluedashedboxindicatesthe"underlyingassets"injectedintothelistedcompany.公司在5月公示《發(fā)行股份購買資產(chǎn)暨關(guān)聯(lián)交易報告書》中注明了華孚控股色紡紗自有（含某些租賃）產(chǎn)能狀況，詳細見下表。InMaythecompanyannouncedthe"reportofpurchaseofassetsthroughissueofsharesandrelatedtransactions”whichindicatestheHuafuHolding’sownproductioncapabilityofdyedmelangeyarn(includingpartofthelease).Pleaseseethetablebelowfordetails.至底，公司自有和外攜色紡紗產(chǎn)能達到107萬錠。Bytheendof，theCompany’sself-ownedandexternalcooperativedyedmelangeyarnproductioncapacityreached1.07millionspindles.表2：5月公示華孚控股色紡紗自有（含某些租賃）產(chǎn)能狀況Table2:self-owneddyedmelangeyarncapacity(includingpartoflease)ofHuafuHoldingasanuouncedinMay08公司名稱 CompanyName產(chǎn)能（萬錠）ProductionCapacity（onethousandspindles） 產(chǎn)能（萬噸）ProductionCapacity（onethousandtons）浙江華孚色紡ZhejiangHuafuTopDyedMelangeYarn江西華孚JiangxiHuafu浙江縉云ZhejiangJinyun浙江金棉ZhejiangJinmian平湖金瓶PinghuJinping慈溪華孚CixiHuafu余姚華聯(lián)YuyaoHualian寧波華聯(lián)NingboHualian寧海華聯(lián)NinghaiHualian安徽新一棉AnhuiXinYiCotton某些共計Subtotal2.2華孚注入色紡紗業(yè)務(wù)收入、凈利潤均迅速增長2.2RevenueandnetprofitfromdyedmelangeyarnbusinessinjectedbyHuafuexperiencedrapidgrowth公司在5月1日交割標資產(chǎn)，此前受飛亞股份虧損影響，財務(wù)報表不具備可比性。InMay1，deliveryoftheunderlyingassetswascompleted，beforewhichfinancialstatementswerenotcomparableduetoinfluenceoflossofformerAnhuiFeiyaTextileCo.,Ltd.因而，咱們考察標資產(chǎn)財務(wù)狀況，以反映色紡紗業(yè)務(wù)自身賺錢能力。Therefore，weexaminethefinancialsituationoftheunderlyingassetstoreflecttheprofitabilityofdyedmelangeyarnbusinessitself.圖13：05-標資產(chǎn)營業(yè)收入復(fù)合增長率25% Fig.13：CAGRofrevenueofunderlingassetsin05-09was25%圖14：05-標資產(chǎn)凈利潤復(fù)合增長率69%Fig.14：CAGRofnetprofitofunderlyingassetsin05-09was69%圖15：色紡紗占上市公司營業(yè)收入90% Fig.15：Dyedmelangeyarnaccountsfor90%ofrevenueofthelistedcompanyin 圖16：色紡紗占上市公司凈利潤100%Fig.16：Dyedmelangeyarnaccountsfor100%ofnetprofitofthelistedcompanyin近5年收入和凈利潤迅速增長。Rapidgrowthofrevenueandnetprofitinthepast5years.05-，標資產(chǎn)營業(yè)收入從13億增長到32億，收入復(fù)合增長率25%；凈利潤從0.23億增長到1.85億，凈利潤復(fù)合增長率69%。營業(yè)收入下降，重要是公司標資產(chǎn)與寧海華聯(lián)、余姚華聯(lián)、寧波華聯(lián)、安徽新一棉公司實行雙經(jīng)銷業(yè)務(wù)模式，所需原料均與公司形成關(guān)聯(lián)銷售，并表后與上述幾家公司采用獨家委托加工模式，只產(chǎn)生加工費用，不產(chǎn)生關(guān)聯(lián)銷售。In05-09，therevenuefromtheunderlyingassetsincreasedtoRMB3.2bnfromRMB1.3bnwithrevenueCAGRof25%；netprofitincreasedfromRMB23mntoRMB185mnwithnetprofitCAGRof69%.Therevenuerecordedindeclinedprimarilyduetothatinthecompanyintroducedanewdual-distributionbusinessmodelforitsunderlyingassetswithNinghaiHualian，YuyaoHualian，NingboHualianandAnhuiXinYiCottonCo.,Ltd，whichformedrelatedsalestransactionswiththecompanyforitsneededrawmaterials.Butafterconsolidationofthefinancialstatementsinamodelofexclusiveentrustedprocessingwasadoptedfortransactionsbetweentheabove-mentionedcompanies，whichincurredonlyprocessingcostwithnorelatedsalestransactions.Indyedmelangeyarnrevenueandprofitrecordedgrowthof15%andtheaveragegrossmarginof19%.色紡紗收入和利潤增長15%，平均毛利率19%。Fromtheperspectiveofproductmixin，dyedmelangeyarnaccountedfor90%ofrevenuesandaccountingfor100%ofoperatingprofit.從產(chǎn)品構(gòu)造看，公司營業(yè)收入中色紡紗占營業(yè)收入90%，占營業(yè)利潤100%，原飛亞股份坯紗坯布等虧損業(yè)務(wù)占比逐年減小。公司色紡紗收入達到28.3億元，營業(yè)利潤5.4億元，均同比增長15%，色紡紗毛利率達到19%水平，其中彩色和新產(chǎn)品毛利率在20%-30%之間。Theproportionofloss-makingbusinessessuchasrawyarn/fabrichasbeenreducingyearbyyear.Inthecompany'sdyedmelangeyarnbusinessgeneratedRMB2.83bnrevenueandoperatingprofitofRMB540mn，bothup15%YOY.Thegrossmarginofdyedmelangeyarnreached19%.Inparticular，grossmarginofcolorandnewproductswasbetween20%-30%.圖17：國內(nèi)銷售收入占到62%，出口收入占38% Fig.17：Domesticsalesaccountedfor62%ofrevenuein09andexportaccountedfor38% 圖18：2季度后毛利率和凈利潤率逐季提高Fig.18：grossmarginandnetmarginincreasesQOQsince2Q09表3：報主營業(yè)務(wù)分項變動狀況Table3：chan