《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》我國調(diào)查報(bào)告之二(英文版)

1、China and the global economyWhy ignoring China is no longer an option.Robin Bew, Chief EconomistJune 2004The global outlookKey points for 2004-05World growth fantasticbest for 20 years in 2004developed and emerging markets surging aheadExceptional times cannot lasttipping point may have already pass

2、edinternational liquidity is tighteningcoping with the transitionglobal policy tighteningwill slow world growthSlowdown likely, but risks of worseUnited States outlookRecent performance stunningmore to come in the year aheadBut policy stimulus being withdrawnstrong momentum, but balance sheets? Rest

3、raining factorsdebts are high, spare capacity, assets prices vulnerable, external deficit2004 are great, but business conditions tougher in 2005-06?JapanDomestic economy is restructuringunder cover of export led growthBut needs more timeSME weakness, overcapacity, no pricing powercannot yet offset e

4、xport slowdownExport deceleration will stall reformstill a long way to go before domestic recovery in placeEuro zone outlookOnly a sluggish recovery exports but the euro restocking, capex business subdued consumers jobs, pensionsPolicy boost? debt levels pension fearsReform efforts?0.00.51.01.52.02.

5、53.03.54.04.5Q1-98Q3-99Q1-01Q3-02Q1-04Q3-05GDP growth, %Y-on-YThe emerging worldBenefiting from OECD pickupimport demand surgingSelling into other emerging marketsregional trade dynamicsBut risk appetite has fallen sharplypast 18mths were extraordinarybut investors now leavingspreads risingChinas ro

6、le in the global storyKey points for 2004-05World growth fantasticChina is 6th largest economy at market prices, 2nd at PPP, growing at 9%Exceptional times cannot lastChinese policy tightening impacts domestically and also elsewhereCommodities, tradeSlowdown likely, but risks of worseSoft landings a

7、re hard to engineersome investors will be hurtThe business responseFDIEIU survey of 500 business executives foreign direct investment strategiesChina the key focus New consumer markets, low-cost labour, new business marketsIndia the challengerSkilled labour, R&D, outsourcingUS & eurozone dom

8、inate operating criteriaSupply chain efficiencies, acquisitionsThe business experienceGap between expectations and realityChina is not an easy business environmentRegulation, competition, local protection, legal framework, infrastructure, skill levelsMacroeconomic stability not assuredIrrational exuberanceForeign and domesticBut long term potential is enormousChina FDI forecastsChina will attract US$67bn per year of FDI in 2004-08Second only to the USFDI will fund 7% of total