【管理類】證券投資學(xué)ppt課件

1、Will Chinese Stock Markets Mirror the Behaviour of the NASDAQ?-Where is the solution?Christopher Poll Chairman,Greater China Consultancy Ltd.,.3 QUESTIONS RAISEDHOW TO DEFINE A “WELL REGULATED MARKET?WHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO?IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STOCK

2、MARKET, WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE?.HOW TO DEFINE A “WELL REGULATED MARKET?.The Financial Markets are DynamicBusiness is “ProactiveBut Regulators are “Reactive not “ProactiveThe System of Regulation and Enforcement can never be completely Flexible and DynamicImportance of Fiduciary Respon

3、sibility.Financial Infrastructure MAIN FACTORS FOR FUNDSGovernmentFinancialPolicemenInstitutional ManagersCentred aroundPublicInvestors.PRIVATE SECTORLawyersAccountantsInvestmentBankersStockBrokersCommercialBanksConflict of Interest?.Conflict of InterestWho is the client?Who are the Financial Police

4、man Responsible to?Can Regulation be Protect with Financial Policemen being Proactive?.INVESTORSInstitutionalPrivatePensionsInsuranceMutual Funds.Investors Confidence =Investors EducationConfidenceEducationInvestors.Investor Protection/Confidence.Easier and more effective enforcement.Increased effic

5、iency reduces costs.Improved flexibility of the infrastructure to respond effectively and competitively.Efficient InfrastructureTransparencyAccountabilityLeads to:.A Chinese Tailor Made Solution for theChinese Fund IndustryInvestorsbehaviourStock InvestorsFund InvestorsSecuritiesDealersBrokersSecuri

6、tiesInvestmentAdvisorsFundManagersSecuritiesExchangeOTCFuturesExchangeSEC/CSRCCBC/PBC.WHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO?.Chinese QuotedStocks CorporateProfits?NASDAQCorporate Profits?Confidence$1995 - 2000.C$IF CONFIDENCE IS LOWTHEN MONEY FLOW IS MINUTE.CONFIDENCE$IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGHTHEN MONEY

7、 FLOW IS LARGE.What is the Criteria For Investing?.1. What do you think is the most important influence on the stock market in China today?The historic balance sheets and profit and loss accounts of the quoted companies- 6The future prospects for corporate earnings-10Government policy-62 Govt. inves

8、tigation into mal practices15The overall economic growth of the Chinese economy-27Chinas entry into the WTO-8.2. How do you as an investor analyse the fair value of the companies you buy & sell?By price earnings ratio-35By relationship to net asset vale-5By the latest rumour-58By the business sector

9、 the company is involved in-21By multiple of sales revenue-9.3. What do you think should be the average prospective price earnings ratio for non-technology stocks?under 15 times-015 to 25 times-18 above 25-110.4. What do you think should be the average prospective price earnings ratio?under 15 times

10、-015 to 25 times-125 to 50-16over 50-111.5. How do you measure investment risk? By measuring the volatility of the stock-31By measuring the volatility of the stock market-42By estimating the accuracy of disclosed information-16By estimating the risk of fraud-17By analysing historic returns-13By comp

11、aring with and adjusting for a risk free measure such as a deposit rate-8.At what level do you think the Shanghai A share market will be on 31st December 2001?most think it will be above 2500Today it is 2140.At what level do you think the Shanghai B share market will be on 31st December 2001?most th

12、ink it will be above 200Today it is 183.IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STOCK MARKET, WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE?.Factors Effecting Investment Time HorizonsConfidence in Long Term TrendsConfidence in Information DisclosureVolatility of MarketsLiquidity of MarketsPr

13、ofit ForecastPublic Scrutiny of Performance.EACM 100: Equal Weighted (Rebalanced Annually) Index of Hedge Fund Indices described on Previous Slide .China versus Western MarketsLimited sense of AccountabilityLittle Understanding of RiskChinese Business PhilosophyReluctance to Incentivise Executive ManagersEntrepreneurs Understand Cause & ConsequenceRisk is Fully Understo