中國云計算行業(yè)：加速前進

1、Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2020, Price as of 2020/01/1019-22RevMkt Cap3m ADTV52w priceCompanyCAGR(US$bn)(US$m) range (lcy)GDS38%7.940.5 25.08-54.46Kingsoft39%3.733.5 12.78-22.25Glodon24%6.138.2 22.64-39.09Yonyou19%11.677.2 18.35-36.33Kingdee21%3.812.9 6.52-10.96Source: Company da

2、ta, Macquarie Research, January 2020Company 2020E P/E 2021E P/E 2020E P/S 2021E P/SGDSnmf 169.3x9.3x6.9x Kingsoft73.5x 42.7x2.5x1.9x Glodon78.0 x 53.8x 10.6x8.6x Yonyou68.8x 52.0 x7.3x6.0 x Kingdee65.4x 53.0 x6.7x5.5xSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2020Source: CAICT, Macquarie Rese

3、arch, January 2020Inside HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Market Landscape and Comps Table 2 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Investment Thesis 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Growth and margin outlook for Cloud in 20204 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 2020 outlook: Growth accelerates with margin recovery 6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002

4、 Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) 9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 GDS Holdings Ltd. (GDS US) 31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Glodon (A-Share) (002410 CH) 54AnalystsMacquarie Capital LimitedJohn Wang +852 3922 3578 HYPERLINK mailto:john.wang john.wangHan Joon Kim +852 3922 5926 HYPERLINK mailto:hanjoon.kim hanjoon.kim C

5、hinas IT companies are at an inflection stage of transitioning to a Cloud-14 January 2020ChinaEQUITIESChina Cloud ComputingCloud CompsHitting the gas pedal in 2020Company TickerRatingPriceTPTSRGDSGDS USOP52.9960.0013%Key pointsKingsoft3888 HKOP20.5532.0056%Glodon002410 CHOP36.0540.0012%Yonyou600588

6、CHOP30.8536.6019%Kingdee268 HKOP8.649.5010%driven new era. We see margin drag from Cloud investment fading in 2020. SaaS sector should show the strongest margin recovery. Pecking order: SaaS (Platform) SaaS (Vertical) IDC IaaS. We initiate coverage on Kingsoft with a 56% TSR, Glodon with a 12% TSR,a

7、nd GDS with a 13% TSR.Data consumption growth helps drive the Cloud industry in ChinaAccording to MIIT, Chinas mobile data consumption will see an 83% CAGR in 2018-21E, which should urge China to embrace Cloud Computing at a faster pace. At the same time, a lower digitization level indicated by a lo

8、wer contribution of the Cloud industry to Chinas GDP suggests a bright future for Cloud on a multiyear basis. In this report, we analyse three emerging leaders in the Cloud industry value chain.The three verticals of Cloud should enjoy sustainable growthThe Cloud industry can be broadly divided into

9、 three stacks the upstream Internet Data Center (IDC) providers, Cloud Infrastructure-as-a-Service/Platform- as-a-Service (IaaS/PaaS) providers, and the downstream Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) providers. We note consensus anticipates revenue reacceleration from capacity digestion in IDC comps and a

10、structural shift to Cloud products in SaaS comps in 2020. We estimate IDC, IaaS/PaaS, and SaaS segments will see 2018- 21E CAGRs of 27%, 50%, and 55%, respectively.and we expect a margin recovery for SaaS in 2020SaaS leaders in various verticals have achieved initial successes in the transition to C

11、loud from the on-premise model but suffered from a margin drag due to investment needed in the earlier stages of Cloud deployment. As many of these SaaS players have already ramped up their SaaS product portfolios and are expected to reach a Cloud revenue contribution of 30-50% in 2020, we anticipat

12、e their respective 2020 margins will recover even as Cloud revenue continues to scale.Pecking order: SaaS (Platform) SaaS (Vertical) IDC IaaSWe prefer SaaS over IDC and IaaS due to 1) larger user base, 2) low penetration in corporates in China, 3) direct and measurable efficiency improvement for end

13、- users, 4) no pricing pressure, 5) lower initial capex, and 6) domain knowledge creating barriers to entry. Among the SaaS comps, we prefer platform SaaS over vertical SaaS due to 1) larger user base, 2) benefit from software localization, andmore future monetization potential.Outperform ratings on

14、 market leaders; our top pick KingsoftWe initiate coverage on Kingsoft, GDS, and Glodon with a 56%, 13%, and 12% TSRs, respectively. We expect all three companies to gain market shares in their respective verticals. Our top pick in the sector is Kingsoft because 1) it owns the largest domestic offic

15、e SaaS-WPS in China, 2) it owns the fifth largest and fast- growing public Cloud IaaS business in China, and 3) the current share price is significantly below its NAV.Please refer to page 83 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website HYPERLINK /research/disclosures /resea

16、rch/disclosures.Market Landscape and Comps TableFig 1 Market Landscape and Comp valuation (consensus)CompanyNameBBGCodePrice(lcy)Market Cap(US$mn)PS(x)PE(x)EV/EBITA(x)201920202021201920202021201920202021Domestic IDCGDSGDS US51.637,85113.29.36.9nmfnmf169.337.024.918.021VianetVNET US8.941,0051.91.51.2

17、nmfnmf101.69.58.05.9Beijing Sinnet300383 CH21.084,7464.33.42.636.827.820.922.817.914.5Shanghai AtHub603881 CH41.171,2728.96.34.556.848.528.025.717.712.1Dr Peng600804 CH6.501,3571.51.51.440.936.230.45.95.75.4Baosight600845 CH33.864,7885.04.13.443.834.327.925.819.516.5Wangsu Science300017 CH10.093,526

18、3.63.12.530.534.025.617.215.011.0Subtotal Average5.54.23.241.836.257.720.515.511.9International IDCEquinixEQIX US594.0050,6569.18.47.696.273.963.023.021.018.8Digital RealtyDLR US120.3726,2248.17.87.153.749.059.320.920.118.5CoreSite RealtyCOR US113.525,5019.68.87.941.543.641.923.221.219.0InterxionINX

19、N US86.766,6479.38.17.2126.5119.2103.822.719.417.3Cyrus OneCONE US66.997,5837.86.96.1102.6nmfnmf20.718.316.2Zayo GroupZAYO US34.698,2163.23.13.155.653.845.911.811.110.6QTS RealtyQTS US53.153,0956.55.85.245.147.1107.820.318.015.7Subtotal Average7.67.06.374.564.470.320.418.416.6Domestic IaaSAlibabaBAB

20、A US223.83600,4748.56.65.335.126.121.027.320.616.5Tencent700 HK398.60493,8709.17.36.135.929.624.526.321.618.0BaiduBIDU US144.5150,0733.33.02.627.221.116.222.014.010.7Kingsoft3888 HK20.553,6853.32.51.9nmf73.542.7161.230.919.1Subtotal Average6.04.84.032.737.626.159.221.816.1International IaaSAmazonAMZ

21、N US1883.16933,6653.32.82.458.448.433.223.719.615.6MicrosoftMSFT US161.341,230,8319.28.37.431.828.224.719.917.915.7GoogleGOOG US1429.73985,8187.16.35.427.223.820.414.912.711.1Subtotal Average6.65.85.139.133.426.119.516.714.1Domestic SaaSYonyou600588 CH30.8511,5908.87.36.084.468.852.058.445.335.7King

22、dee268 HK8.643,8058.06.75.574.265.453.034.132.128.5Glodon002410 CH36.056,09612.710.68.6106.678.053.892.068.447.8Weaver603039 CH65.201,4407.75.94.668.052.541.199.672.153.5WPSCRM US156.2710,46146.430.421.6198.6107.875.2201.4127.285.2ChanjetINTU US7.812133.22.8nmf30.518.610.60.60.5nmfSubtotal Average14

23、.510.69.393.765.247.681.057.650.1International SaaSSalesforceCRM US180.20159,8379.67.86.566.158.046.534.628.224.2IntuitINTU US275.2571,64910.19.18.241.434.230.729.624.121.7ServiceNowNOW US298.8856,36916.312.810.192.271.154.957.644.333.9WorkdayWDAY US180.1141,42511.79.68.1121.683.965.661.845.838.2Sho

24、pifySHOP US429.1749,82632.023.617.5nmfnmfnmfnmfnmfnmfAtlassianTEAM US133.9032,69423.518.414.6nmf115.287.5155.369.7nmfVeevaVEEV US145.5121,62120.216.013.369.058.448.648.939.832.5Tw ilioTWLO US115.7415,87414.210.88.6nmfnmfnmf170.0181.790.5RingCentralRNG US183.4815,76917.714.411.7226.2200.1153.8136.111

25、4.091.2ZendeskZEN US81.809,17611.38.76.8259.7144.388.1145.987.650.9DropboxDBX US17.827,4014.53.93.537.530.626.419.215.613.8HubSpotHUBS US175.777,52711.29.17.4120.7109.278.085.470.648.7LogMeInLOGM US86.024,1793.33.23.016.817.215.610.611.010.1New RelicNEWR US67.303,9567.05.95.0223.494.066.049.336.528.

26、0Subtotal Average13.811.08.9115.984.763.577.359.240.3Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January 2020, Price as of 2020/01/10Investment ThesisCloud revenue growth acceleration expected in 2020Data consumption growth in the ToC (To Consumer) market and corporate digitization in the ToB (To Busines

27、s) market should continue to drive the Cloud market as Cloud technology is the most available method to improve IT infrastructure efficiencies on top of Moores Law. We expect SaaS to lead the Cloud market with 55% YoY growth in 2020 based on our estimates and Bloomberg consensus for SaaS players Yon

28、you, Kingdee, and WPS. Meanwhile, Public Cloud IaaS is expected grow at 50% YoY in 2020 based on our estimates for Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US, US$221.78, Outperform, TP: US$231.00), Tencent (700 HK, HK$406.40, Outperform, TP: HK$410.00), and Kingsoft. The IDC market is expected to grow at approx

29、imately 27% based on our projection and Bloomberg consensus among comps including GDS, 21Vianet, Beijing Sinnet, and Shanghai AtHub (the latter three are not covered).IDC Leaders are standing outAfter a disorderly capacity expansion in 2015-17, the IDC market is starting to recover from the over-inv

30、estment made by less-efficient players. At the same time, IDC providers that are tied to major internet and Cloud companies are riding the tide of Cloud growth and gaining meaningful market share. GDS stood out with 1) strong ties to Internet giants such as Alibaba and Tencent,strong financing capab

31、ilities, and 3) strong operating efficiencies and became the largest listed IDC company in terms of both revenue and market cap.IaaS Technology and scale become keyWe believe the window for new entrants has been closed for the IaaS market due to elevated barriers in technology and scale. With Alibab

32、a Cloud (AliCloud) being the dominant player with50% market share, the remaining players are trying to adopt differentiated growth strategies. Kingsoft focuses on the video and game verticals and developed its own technological strengths. We believe Kingsoft could obtain greater market share under t

33、he rapid traffic growth of short video mobile apps.SaaS Favouring platform companies and vertical leaders with margin recoveryIn the vast universe of SaaS, we continue to favour the platform companies that all types of clients can use, such as ERP and office applications. These platform SaaS provide

34、rs will benefit first from the digitization of Chinese corporates and localized demand such as Kingsofts WPS, Yonyou, and Kingdee. In the meantime, we also favour vertical leaders with stable margin recovery after transitioning to a Cloud business model, such as Glodon.Growth and margin outlook for

35、Cloud in 2020Sustainable high growth rate of mobile traffic will continue to drive cloud market with a 40% three-year CAGR in ChinaThe wide adoption of smartphones in China helped mobile data consumption surge 17-fold in 2015-18, according to the Ministry of Industrials and Information Technology (M

36、IIT) of China. In the meantime, various mobile applications were invented and equipped into smart phones with different penetration rates, which drove data consumption to have a CAGR of 83% in 2018-21E, according to MIIT.Fig 2 Mobile data consumption in ChinaFig 3 Mobile app penetration rate by cate

37、gories in China100 010010125436.0282.2153.623.2171.124.69.384.190.380.761.734.428.8415.4720151050201 5201 6201 7201 8201 9E 202 0E 202 1E120%97%89%81% 80%75% 74% 71%58% 53% 51%49% 49%39%27%20%100%80%60%40%20%0%Tota l mob ile d ata traffic (EB)GB per month per user2017.122018.122019.06Source: MIIT, M

38、acquarie Research, January 2020Source: CAC, Macquarie Research, January 2020Mobile data consumption growth should push China to embrace Cloud Computing at a fast pace. According to the Gartner, the Cloud Computing industry in China reached a market size of Rmb103bn and has a 37% CAGR in 2018-23, whi

39、ch is much faster than the 18% 2018-21 CAGR in the US, based on Gartners forecast.Meanwhile, China became a more and more important cloud user in the global market. According to IDC, China took 12.9% of the global public cloud IaaS market share in 2018, which is a 2.7ppt YoY increase from 2017.Fig 4

40、 China cloud computing market sizeFig 5 Chinas share in global public cloud IaaS market48%49445%40%36%37732%33%28320814910339526933%31%Rmb bn 60060%14%50040030050%40%30%12%10%8%2001000201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9E 202 0E 202 1E 202 2E 202 3E20%6%10%4%0%2%Market size% YoY0%2014201520162017201812.9%1

41、0.1%8.2%7.2%6.3%Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, January 2020Source: IDC, Macquarie Research, January 2020The fast growth rate of the cloud computing industry reflects the strong demand of digitization among Chinese enterprise users. However, China is still lagging in terms of cloud contributi

42、on to GDP. According to IMFs forecast on GDP and IDCs forecast on public cloud market size in major economies, the public cloud market will only account for 0.07% of Chinas GDP, a sharp difference to 0.58% GDP share in the US.Fig 6 Forecast on public cloud market as % of GDP in 2019Fig 7 Public vs p

43、rivate cloud market size in China0.70%0.60%0.50%0.40%0.30%0.20%0.10%0.00%USUKGer ma nyJapanChinaRmb bn 2000.58%0.36%0.25%0.14%0.07%17313011795967967 64533443441726180160140120100806040200201 6201 7201 8201 9E 202 0E 202 1E 202 2EPub lic CloudPrivate Clo udPub lic Cloud YoYPrivate Clo ud YoY70%60%50%

44、40%30%20%10%0%Source: IMF, IDC, Macquarie Research, January 2020Source: CAICT, Macquarie Research, January 2020 Among the different type of cloud services, the public cloud market is estimated to surpass the private cloud market in 2019 and show a 41% CAGR in 2018-22 compared to a 22% CAGR for the p

45、rivate cloud market in the same period, according to CAICT. The faster adoption of public cloud is attributable to its lower total cost of ownership (TCO) and better return on investment (ROI) profiles.Among the different segments in the public cloud, Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) segment took6

46、2% of the total market size and grew 82% YoY in 2018, according to CAICT estimate, while Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) segments took 5% and 33% of the total market size and grew at 88% and 39% YoY, respectively, in 2018. We forecast the IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS segments t

47、o show a 45%, 58%, and 38% CAGR, respectively, in 2018-2021, to reach a total public cloud market size of Rmb130bn in 2021.Fig 8 Public cloud market size by segment in ChinaFig 9 Private cloud spending breakdown in Chinab bn8361433827282015154698106911124Rm 9080706050403020100201 5201 6201 7201 8201

48、 9E 202 0E 202 1EIaaSPaa SSaa S IaaS YoYPaa S Y oYSaa S Y oY120 %100 %80%60%40%20%0%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%72.6%71.7%71.0%70.6%15.1%12.3%15.4%12.9%15.6%13.3%15.8%13.6%201 5201 6201 7201 8HardwareSoftwa reSer vicesSource: CAICT, Macquarie Research, October 2019Source: CAICT, Macquarie Research, Oc

49、tober 2019 In the private cloud market, IT spending is still biased towards hardware in China as enterprises are still ramping up cloud resources. According to a survey from CAICT, 70.6% of private cloud spending was invested on hardware, while 15.8% and 13.6% were invested in software and services,

50、 respectively. However, as enterprises are focusing more and more on leveraging the efficiency of their private cloud infrastructures, we can observe growing percentages of spending on software and services. In the same CAICT survey, software spending increased 0.7ppts while services spending increa

51、sed 1.3ppts in the period of 2015-18.2020 outlook: Growth accelerates with margin recoveryIDC segmentBased on Bloomberg consensus of four pure-play IDC players (GDS, 21Vianet, Beijing Sinnet, and Shanghai AtHub), we expect average IDC industry revenue growth to reaccelerate from 17% in 2019 to 33% i

52、n 2020 and 32% in 2021.Fig 10 IDC comps consensus revenue growth forecastsFig 11 GDS has become a market leader in revenue50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%201 9E202 0E202 1E35%33%32%17%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%GDS21V ianetBeij ing Sinne tSha nghai AtHubAverag eSource: Bloomberg, Company data, Macquarie Rese

53、arch, January 2020, Note: Bloomberg consensus usedSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2020*Sinnet did not release revenue breakdown in quarterly results Due to the asset-heavy nature of the IDC industry, margins can be significantly dragged in a capacity expansion cycle. Therefore, mar

54、gins will naturally improve when capex investment and capacity release slow down. But on a data center-by-data center analysis, we expect margins are bottoming out as 1) leaders are gaining market share which means the non-core players are stopping their capex investment and exiting the market, 2) t

55、he rental price is stabilizing, and 3) the government is working towards reducing electricity prices for industrial usage.74.0%72.7%72.0%70.4%69.6%68.8%70.4%70.0%67.7%68.3%67.6%68.0%66.8%65.5%66.0% 64.7%63.7%63.9%64.0%62.0%62.1%61.2%60.0%Fig 12 IDC comps net margin consensus forecastFig 13 Utilizati

56、on rate forecast for GDS20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%8.4%5.9% 3.8%0.6%201 8201 9E202 0E202 1E9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%76.0%74.9%GDS21V ianetBeij ing Sinne tSha nghai AtHubAverag e (RHS)Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2020,Note: Bloomberg consensus usedS

57、ource: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2020 Based on consensus estimates, while the A-share listed companies (Beijing Sinnet and Shanghai AtHub) are expected to have a stable margin outlook, the US-listed companies (GDS and 21Vianet) are expected to enjoy a margin recovery in 2019-21. We t

58、hink IDC market leaders should continue their growth momentum and gain market share during the market consolidation driven by the centralized demands from several Internet giants and the increasing barrier to entry of large capex.IaaS segmentAliClouds revenue growth declined from 120% YoY in 1Q18 to

59、 60% YoY in 3Q19 and we expect growth continue to slow down to 50% in 2020. Meanwhile, we expect AliCloud to maintain its leading market share as other competitors are expected to have similar growth rates. As such, we expect the IaaS market to grow at 50% in 2020.Fig 14 AliCloud vs AWS in revenue g

60、rowthFig 15 IaaS players performance in 1H19US$ mn 10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00004Q1 7 1Q1 8 2Q1 8 3Q1 8 4Q1 8 1Q1 9 2Q1 9 3Q1 9140 %120 %100 %80%60%40%20%0%AWS Reve nueAliClou d Revenu eAWS YoYAliClou d Y oYSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2020Source: Company