全球磷肥展望課件

ChinaPhosphateFertilizersandCompoundsTradeFair-Shandong-October2008GlobalPhosphateOutlook2008-2009全球磷肥展望

MichelPrud’hommeIFA–FranceNon-for-profitorganizationrepresentingtheglobalfertilizerindustryandrelatedservices.非營利組織，代表全球肥料工業(yè)及相關(guān)服務(wù)530membercompaniesin87countries.

有530個會員單位，來自于87個國家IFA’smandate:

IFA的使命Promotethesustainableandresponsibleproductionoffertilizers.促進可持續(xù)的和負責任的肥料生產(chǎn)Fosteranopenbusinessandtradeenvironment.

培育開放的商業(yè)和貿(mào)易環(huán)境Supportthedevelopmentofasustainableandefficientuseofplantnutrients.

支持可持續(xù)的和高效的利用作物養(yǎng)分的開發(fā)InternationalFertilizerIndustryAssociation國際肥料工業(yè)協(xié)會1-WorldAgricultureSituation

世界農(nóng)業(yè)形勢2-FertilizerandFertilizerPhosphateDemand

肥料及肥料磷酸鹽的需求3-PhosphateRockandPhosphoricAcidOutlook

磷礦和磷酸市場展望4–ProcessedPhosphatesOutlook

精細磷化工市場展望Content

內(nèi)容WorldCerealProductionandUtilization全球谷物生產(chǎn)和消費趨勢Source:FAO,July2008BilliontonnesWorldCerealStocks全球谷物庫存Source:FAO,July2008MilliontonnesWorldFertilizerDemand2005–2012全球肥料需求MilliontonnesnutrientsSource:IFA,2008+2.6%p.a.over2007+2.9%p.a.over2007NP2O5K2OWorldPhosphateFertilizerDemand全球磷肥需求MtP2O5+5.0%+3.1%+1.6%+4.5%42.140.840.238.536.6Source:IFA,2008PhosphateNutrientRegionalDemand分地區(qū)磷肥需求2007to2009Source:IFA,20085MtP2O520072009+3%+2%+4%+6%+8%050100150200250200720082009201020112012EastAsiaOthersWestAsiaAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaEuropeandEECAWorldPhosphateRockCapability全球磷礦石產(chǎn)能MtproductSource:IFA,2008233189194202214242Half-YearPhosphateRockProductionandTradeMtrockBasedonIFAQuarterlySample磷礦石生產(chǎn)及貿(mào)易Source:IFA,2008Half-YearPhosphoricAcidProductionandTradeMtP2O5Source:IFA,2008BasedonIFAQuarterlySample磷酸生產(chǎn)及貿(mào)易MainPhosphoricAcidCapacityDevelopments主要磷酸產(chǎn)能變化Source:IFA,2008KtP2O5MoroccoGlobalPhosphoricAcidSupply/Demand全球磷酸供/需Source:IFA,2008MtP2O5DemandSupplyPotentialSurplusWorldProcessedPhosphatesProductionMtP2O5Source:IFA,2008BasedonIFAQuarterlySample全球主要工藝磷肥產(chǎn)量WorldProcessedPhosphatesTradeMtP2O5Source:IFA,2008BasedonIFAQuarterlySample全球工藝磷肥貿(mào)易GlobalPhosphateCapacityAdditions全球磷肥產(chǎn)能變化MtP2O5Source:IFA,2008WorldDAP:Supply/Demand全球DAP供/需MtP2O50510152020082009201020112012MaximumPotentialproduction13.915.914.416.0DAPconsumption:+3.3%p.a.Source:IFA,2008PhosphateMarketOutlook磷肥市場展望2008和2009年，全球肥料需求相對堅挺,

預計年均增長約3%

，全球磷肥需求預計增長2.6%,

主要是高濃度磷肥的增長.

增長主要來自于幾個國家，如巴西、印度、美國，也許還有中國.2008年全球各磷肥產(chǎn)品品種的生產(chǎn)將會表現(xiàn)不同,貿(mào)易量將低于預測.相對于DAP較強勁的進口需求,尤其是印度的進口，全球磷酸、MAP，還有TSP的貿(mào)易量預計會下降.中國2008年的出口政策已經(jīng)導致減少了中國MAP和DAP向國際市場的有效輸出.2008年和2009年預計中國以外的MAP-DAP的供