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原文:InternationalFinancialManagementandMultinationalEnterprisesIntroductionThischapterprovidesaselective,criticalsurveyoftheacademicliteratureonthefinancialmanagementpolicyofmultinationalenterprises(MNEs).Thefocusofmuchcurrentresearchinterestcanbecapturedintwomajorthemeswhichalsodominatethisanalysis.ThefirstisfinancialmanagementpolicyinrelationshiptotheincreasingvolatilityofrealandfinancialassetpricesintheinternationalfinancialenvironmentwithinwhichMNEsoperate.Thisdictatesonethemeofthischapter:theimpactoffinancialrisk,inparticularmarketrisk,onMNEsandanappraisalofevolvingfinancialriskmanagementpractices.Thesecondthemeisinternationalmarketsegmentation(ChoiandRajan1997).Theglobalizationofinternationalbusinessactivityhasevolvedalongwithincreasingfinancialmarketintegration,particularlyincapitalmarkets.Toalimitedextentthishasbeenaccompaniedbyincreasedharmonizationandstandardizationofbothinternationalregulatoryandaccountingpractices(Robertsetal.1998).Despitesuchtrends,theasymmetricincidenceofaccountingstandardsregulations,andtaxationhashadsignificanttacticalandstrategicfinancialmanagementimplicationsforMNEs(ChoiandLevich1990,1997;Grayetal.1995;Meeketal.1995;Oxelheimetal.1998).Weevaluatethenature,incidence,andimplicationsofsuchmarketsegmentationforselectedaspectsofMNEfinancialmanagementactivity.ItisclearfromthecontextofouranalysisthatwebelievefinancialfactorstohaveimportantimplicationsforthecomparativeadvantageofMNEslocatedindifferentjurisdictions,andalsothatfinancialmanagementplaysacriticalroleindecidinganMNE’scompetitiveprosperity.ThisbeliefissupportedbysurveysofMNEs(RawlsandSmithson1990;Marshall2000).Marshall(2000)reportstheresultsofasurveyofthe200largestMNEswhichrevealthat87percentofAsianPacific-basedMNEsstatethatforeignexchangeriskmanagementisatleastasimportantasbusinessriskmanagement.Nonetheless,todatenogenerallyacceptedtheoreticalunderpinninghasyetbeenprovideddemonstratingthatfinancialfactorsalonearebothnecessaryandsufficienttorationalizetheexistenceofMNEs,.Wefurtherdiscussthisissueinthecontextofmodesofmarketentryandparticipationinalatersection.Theremainderofthechapteriseasilysummarized.Section2discussestheenhancedimportanceofrecentincreasesinassetpricevolatility,relatingittocountryriskandinternationalinvestmentappraisal.Theclassificationandmeasurementofriskexposureisconsideredinsection3.Particularattentionisgiventorecentlydevelopedtechniquessuchasvalue-at-riskandcash-flow-at-risk.Section4isconcernedwiththemanagementoffinancialriskbyMNEs.Inparticular,adistinctionismadebetweenmanagementpoliciesdesignedprimarilytohedgerisk,andthoseintendingtoexploititspotentialtocreatecompetitiveadvantage.ThissectionalsoevaluatesempiricalstudiesofMNEriskmanagement.Section5addressesissuesrelatingtotheeffectiveimplementationofariskmanagementsystemwithinthegovernancestructureofanMNE.Brifeconcludingremarksfollowtogetherwithsomesuggestionsforfutureresearch..THENATUREOFFINANCIALRISKOuremphasisonfinancialriskandtheevolutionofMNEriskmanagementpracticeshasbeenmotivatedbyanumberoffactors,themostimportantbeingthetrendtowardincreasingglobalfinancialmarketintegration(Lessard1997)andtheenhancedvolatilityinthefinancialenvironmentwithinwhichMNEsoperate.Welaterevaluatestudieswhicharguethatthesefactorscanconfercertainadvantagestointernationalizationofafirm’sactivities.Inpreparationforthisanalysiswechroniclecertainmajorrecentdevelopmentsintheglobalfinancialenvironment,whichindicatetheincreasingimportanceofmarketriskinglobalfinancialmarkets.ExchangeratevariabilityFollowingthecollapseoftheBrettonWoodssystemoffixedexchangeratesintheearly1970s,exchangeratefluctuationshavebecomeincreasinglyvolatile,punctuatedbyoccasionalepisodesofexchangeratecrises.Between1970andmid-2000,theYen/USdollarexchangeratehasmovedfrom361to107andtheDeutschmark/USdollarratehasfallenfrom4.2to1.9.However,thedollarhasappreciatedbyabouttwo-thirdsagainststerlingoverthesameperiod.ThecrisisintheEuropeanMonetarySystem(ERM)inSeptember1992ledtosignificantfallsinthevalueofsterlingandtheItalianLira,whilethecurrenciesofThailand,Indonesia,Malaysia,thePhilippines,andSouthKorealostbetweenone-thirdandthree-quartersoftheirvalueinthesecondhalfof1997.Therehavealsobeenmajormovementsinexchangeratesfollowingshifitsinthemonetarypolicystanceofcertaingovernments,suchasthetightermonetarypolicyfollowedintheearlydaysoftheThatcheradministrationintheUK.Indeed,theaveragevolatilityofexchangerates,whichisintheregionof10-15perentperyear,issufficienttoeliminatetheaverageprofitmarginforthetypicalmultinationalcorporation.InterestratevariabilityInterestratevolatilityhassimilarlyaffectedcorporatefundingcosts,cashflows,andnetassetvaluessincetheearly1970sintheUS,andalthoughtheysubsequentlydeclined,achangeinpolicybytheFederalReservecausedasharpincreaseinboththelevelandvolatilityofratesin1979.Interestratespeakedin1981,andthenfellslowly.Since1983,therehavebeenfourmoreUSinterestratecycles.AccordingtoJorion(1996),theincreasein1994eliminatedover$1.5trilliondollarfromfixedincomeportfolios.Interestrateshavealsobecomemoreandmorevolatilesincemanycentralbanksbegantoabandontargetinginterestratesasapolicyobjectiveinfavouroftargetingmoneysupplygrowthorinflation.IntheUK,interestratesshotupinthelate1980sandearly1990sduetoinflationarypressurescausedbyarelaxationinmonetarypolicy,butthenfellsubstantiallywithsterling’swithdrawalfromtheERMinSeptember1992.EquitymarketvariabilityEquitymarketshavealsobecomeextremelyvolatile.Duringtheinflationaryperiodsoftheearly1970s,pricesincreasedsignificantlyonlytofallsharplyduringthebearmarketof1974-5followinga300percenthikeinthepriceofoil.Aglobalrecoverythenensued,withminorpricereversalsin1982-3,andthemarketpeakedin1987.OnBlackMonday,19October1987,pricesplunged.USequitieslost23percentoftheirvalue,equivalenttooverUS$1trillioninequitycapital.Thiswasfollowedbyanotherrecoveryoverthenexttenyears,sustainedworldwidewiththeexceptionofJapan,wheretheNikkeiindexfellfrom39000in1989to17000in1992,acapitallossofUS$2.7trillion.Finallyfrommid-toend1997,thestockmarketsofBangkok,Jakarta,KualaLumpur,andManilalostUS$370billion,or63percentofthefourcountryes’combinedGDP,whiletheSeoulstockmarketdeclined60percent.CommoditypricevariabilityandothersourcesofincreasedriskCommodityprices,particularlythoseinprimaryproductmarkets,havealsobeensubjecttolargefluctuationssincethe1970s,atrendestablishedsubsequenttotheoilpricerisesof1973-4.Thisvariabilityalsohadspollovereffectsinotherfinancialmarkets,particularlyequitymarkets,therebycorroboratingtheviewthatitisfundamentallyincorrecttotreatfinancialmarketsinisolationfromoneanthor.Significantregulatoryandlegalchanges,theglobalizationofthefinancialservicesindustry,andlegalchanges,theglobalizationofthefinancialservicesindustry,andtheemergenceofoffshorefinancialactivityhavealsoincreasedfinancialrisks.Finally,riskassociatedwiththeenhancedglobalriskhasresultedfromincreasedlevelsofworldtrade,majorchangesintradepolicy,theeconomicandpoliticaltransitionoftheformerSovietbloc,thegrowthoftheEU,andtheemergenceoftheAsiantigereconomiesaseconomicpower.Countryrisk跟This燦incre釋asing臂fina勁ncial盟mark估etvo灑latil圓ityh枯aspo貞tenti襖ally短impor放tant丙conse址quenc賞esfo澡rbot惡hthe盲issu徐eof撇inter付natio腹nali澇nvest皇ment桶appra銷isal,途and像also糾thea業(yè)pprop逼riate弦meas使ureo扁fcou砍ntry膚risk.吊Befo飛rewe羽cons先ider竹metho釋dolog師ical柔issue釣srel博ating誠tot櫻heme脈asure所ment說ofco素untry港risk吩,the糞rear汽esom依ecom南menta腿tors要whoa掠rgue績(jī)that庫count間ryri汁skis爭(zhēng)dive兆rsifi缸able(后unsys際temat巖ic)a權(quán)ndth艘atth棟eres任hould酸ben亦ocor區(qū)recti踢ons.配Recen余tass紋etpr燒icing廟beha詠viour腰ini曉ntern宣ation中alfi胳nanci掘alma脈rkets吃prov全ides犧subst責(zé)antia剪levi抽dence核ofc擁ross-固marke掀tcor伴relat伍ion(s聯(lián)ystem纏atic柄risk)織sugg輩estin賴gcou榜ntry未risk德isno長(zhǎng)n-div愛ersif識(shí)iable卡even豐ina喚glob勒alpo修r(nóng)tfol逆io,a負(fù)ndhe駕nces咸hould夾bei毛ncorp肅orate微d.On橡the棵measu用remen瓜tasp需ects,脂Damo廉doran鈴(200欲0)ha定sarg艘uedt荷hatt外heri世skpr進(jìn)emium隊(duì)ina嶼nyeq烤uity汗marke逗tcan俗bec坐oncep送tuali學(xué)zeda球s:精Equit盯yMar笑ketR醒iskP顯remiu聽min原Count似ryA幫=Bas賭ePre炮mium里forM麻ature吹Equi辟tyMa酬rket厲(US)乘+Coun拉tryP倍remiu位mfor豎Coun敬tryA油.知Inca兆lcula蛛ting古theb鵲asep扎remiu注mfor涉the擾US孤mark瘡et,a宜napp草roach生base曲dupo陳nhis齡toric迅alpr灶emium忘rema昌inss肚tanda舒rd.H炒ere,揭actua光lequ枝ityr遠(yuǎn)eturn刻sare捕esti借mated堂over格asu茂ffici深ently閃long躲time叮fram精eand掏comp繳ared倡toth賴eact燕ualr邪eturn房sear讀nedo拜ndef旗ault-扛free兵(usua景l(fā)lyg壞overn磨ment)梢secu皮ritie腸s.Th著eann豈ualiz晴eddi唱ffere飼ncei狂sthe業(yè)ncal府culat悟edan溫drep對(duì)resen恐tsth電ehis屈toric機(jī)alpr鐮emium便.Thi低smet鳳hody念ields斥subs仔tanti弊aldi漆ffere反nces哨inth劇epre粉miums亡weo詠bserv誕ebei挖ngus抱edin并prac紐tice:撫even膜for充thec圍aseo展fthe員刊USA桿esti杰mates哨rang活efro津m4p紫erce塞ntto程12p捉ercen盲t.Th師isis掛all南them工ores岸urpri盤sing腹given疼that凳most招calc樹ulati躲onsu危seid悠entic出alda俱ta,t攻heIb止botso黑nAss甘ociat家esda訪tabas禽eof誘histo令rical忘retu宵rns.某Weco父nject級(jí)ures立evera話lrea嫩sons捷exist艦for撈this心diver型gence騰.Fir雪st:d耍iffer轉(zhuǎn)ences水int削imep圖eriod臥suse吩d.Pr仆opone懼ntso龍fthe印use錯(cuò)ofsh松orter課time樓peri所odsa跑rgue紀(jì)that山such苗estim上ates塞arem蜻orer犧eleva迅nt,a隸sthe怒aver么ager量iska椅versi句onof撞inve遞stors撞chan靜geso釀vert勞ime.欠This教consi慨derat子ioni近slik腎elyo糊verwh筋elmed訴byt窩hefa修ctth械atto該obta些inre朱asona膚bles憲tanda烘rder側(cè)rors希oner返equir姿esve勻rylo衣ngti返mepe妨riods汁(at化least嘉twen莊ty-fi劉veye似ars).壘Inde蜓ed,t回hest固andar飽derr暖orsf浴romt床en-ye宅ares跪timat籠esof哄tene鹿xceed庫the立risk舅premi夾umes藍(lán)timat痛es,m共aking滅the貴estim車ates婦redun斤dant.材Seco遙nd,t酸heri貍sk-fr乒eera萄tech么osen武inca李lcula醒ting施expec否tedr宏eturn呆s,in和othe斯rwor甚dsth渠emet識(shí)hodm停ustm令atch治upth傳edur卻ation庸oft防heca恩shfl字owsb種eing刻disco灑unted擁(Dam服odora遞n200脊0).I縣fthe駕yiel脫dcur瘦veis旨upwa珍rdsl匪oping因,the奏risk披prem健iumw松illb研elar女gerw倡hene冒stima億tedr腎elati栗veto械shor雹t-ter存mgov輪ernme咐ntse們curit感ies.甚Consi錦stenc命yis沿requi編reda蓬ndgi脆vent啦hepr朋eviou享scom蠅ments窯,the燭use駁ofeq雁uity冶premi快umca都lcula用tedr懷elati戰(zhàn)veto疼long貨-date棒dgov寨ernme危ntbo串ndss療eems廁appro腦priat脾efor浙most探case禽s.Th深ird,昌adeb線atee欲xists滾over符how拿toco饅mpute漲the爆avera利gere鞋turns叛ons惰tocks醒a(bǔ)nd批bonds替,in危parti凡cular葛whet職hert孫ouse殲arit筐hmeti而cor慣geome熱t(yī)ric亂avera癥ge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于亞太多勝個(gè)帳國(guó)蜻家類企業(yè)含的肺國(guó)家外匯風(fēng)慮險(xiǎn)管理是重豈要業(yè)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)班管理的一項(xiàng)辨調(diào)查工結(jié)果胃。然而,迄淡今為止尚未茫有普遍接受劫的理論基礎(chǔ)雕,證明經(jīng)濟(jì)蟲因素是跨國(guó)崖公司存在的胞充分必要條蒸件。姨我們進(jìn)一步丘討論這一問俘題充的市場(chǎng)紡進(jìn)入究模式唉方面和參與爭(zhēng)部分。胡很容易跳對(duì)真本章的余下徑部分進(jìn)行總屑結(jié)。第二節(jié)捎論述了提高春最悶新姿的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格尋增加終的袖重要性,亦還有對(duì)焦國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、瘋國(guó)際化的投透資經(jīng)營(yíng)方式聯(lián)評(píng)價(jià)??煸诘?節(jié)講晨述了擔(dān)分類和測(cè)量形的諒風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。特別僚需要的較注意學(xué)事夠最斥新的足技術(shù)設(shè)發(fā)展今,如風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)異值和斜現(xiàn)金流量風(fēng)培險(xiǎn)字。第痰4節(jié)族是關(guān)于跨國(guó)穩(wěn)公司講的曬金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管雷理。特別是煤,插在區(qū)分菜經(jīng)營(yíng)方針與夜對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)碑時(shí)碑,有意利用運(yùn)其潛力創(chuàng)造濫競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的毫管理政策。壘這節(jié)也避對(duì)國(guó)際企業(yè)盛的個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理蹤做出了投評(píng)估實(shí)證研斬究。第5稱節(jié)對(duì)是對(duì)國(guó)勝際企業(yè)的地鹽域龜問題進(jìn)行風(fēng)垮險(xiǎn)管理的有莖效實(shí)施為的拒治理結(jié)構(gòu)翅問題討論即。洞最后對(duì)全文股進(jìn)行總結(jié)對(duì)袋未來研究提別出一些建議負(fù)。免自然的金融匹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)沾我們強(qiáng)調(diào)塘的停財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與促多國(guó)企業(yè)風(fēng)彩險(xiǎn)管理做法價(jià)的演變動(dòng)機(jī)走因素桶有多種及,最重要的止是聽日益增長(zhǎng)的慨全球金融市惠場(chǎng)一體化衫(乏麗薩德慶1997抄年)的勻趨勢(shì)和增強(qiáng)廣多國(guó)企業(yè)內(nèi)中的金融環(huán)境認(rèn)中不穩(wěn)定的音操作。我們稍后面所做的碧評(píng)估研究,姜認(rèn)為這些因士素可以宋在國(guó)際化的馬公司活動(dòng)中丸被軋賦予某些優(yōu)搶勢(shì)。在準(zhǔn)備縱這一分析憐時(shí)純我們自把耽某些主要絕的夫最背新龜?shù)氖聭B(tài)發(fā)展繭寫進(jìn)咽歷史記錄,鍋全球的金融貼環(huán)境表明在購全球金融市熔場(chǎng)中的市場(chǎng)律風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益重汪要。匯率變化劫在七十年代巾初期布雷頓仇森林體系枕瓦解后,蠻固定匯率希越來越不穩(wěn)因定,殲還偶爾發(fā)拆生盜匯率危機(jī)把。在197薯0年云到亭2000頃年中猛,日元對(duì)美朵元匯率已經(jīng)偏變動(dòng)為希316膚/芽107酬并且馬克擠/美元匯率常已經(jīng)下降武變?yōu)檎?.2/撫1兔.富9。然而,宵在同一個(gè)拉時(shí)期美元兌析英鎊大約菌變?yōu)榧內(nèi)秊┍染岸恰O?992年昂9月掌的妹歐洲貨幣體間系的刷危機(jī)(ER噴M)導(dǎo)致英延鎊貶值和意渡大利貨幣里飽拉斷價(jià)值大幅下世降菠,而邊僅在霉九七年下半興年廳,系泰國(guó)、印尼權(quán)、馬來西亞鋪、菲律賓、青和韓國(guó)失去末了三分之一燈到四分之三允的逝貨幣聞價(jià)值。液也有匯率發(fā)灑生重大變動(dòng)貧后,某些政鍋府實(shí)行緊縮房貨幣政策,估如在英國(guó)撒宜切爾政府初弦期所遵循得汪政策,貨幣娘政策立場(chǎng)就標(biāo)發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變澤。事實(shí)上,侵匯率在每人蹲每年10-吼%15%之飛間的不穩(wěn)定爬波動(dòng),足以涌消除對(duì)典型免的跨國(guó)公司膛平均利潤(rùn)率幟。利率變化竊20世紀(jì)7出0年代初利翼率波動(dòng)也同景樣影響著美酸國(guó)企業(yè)的資璃金成本、現(xiàn)晶金流量,凈扁資產(chǎn)價(jià)值,島雖然他們隨根后下降,但幫在1929吧年美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政發(fā)策變化引起升了雙方儲(chǔ)蓄粒水平的透波動(dòng)性急劇掉增加。寒利率在19賀81年達(dá)到俗最高峰,后棚來就安開始逐漸下粗降寫。1983閉年以來,美琴國(guó)的利率周腫期趨變化巷已經(jīng)有四次匯以上霞了冤。蛾根據(jù)吉瑞琳袋(1996斥年),19學(xué)94年增加風(fēng)了$1.5何萬億,淘汰疼了美元固定持收益的投資宵組合。默利率也已成拳為更多和更凳不穩(wěn)定,因時(shí)為很多中央晌銀行開始放述棄針對(duì)利率配為目標(biāo)這民一項(xiàng)政策偷,轉(zhuǎn)而灶贊成針對(duì)貨肢幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)巷或通脹。8宮0年代末到娃90年代英準(zhǔn)國(guó)類的化利率猛增心是壘由于通貨膨軟脹的壓力棟致使姿貨幣政策放需松剃引起的驗(yàn),但后來摸在1992蕩年9月又翁持續(xù)下滑攝并枝退出歐洲匯毅率機(jī)制。請(qǐng)股票市場(chǎng)變渡化鴿股票市場(chǎng)也某變得非常不板穩(wěn)定的。在費(fèi)二十世紀(jì)七個(gè)十年代早期己的膏通貨膨脹時(shí)暑期,玉折價(jià)格大幅增系加只在1付974年平5月昂的熊市期間禮,勢(shì)大幅下降后堅(jiān)銳只有損中石油價(jià)格豐上調(diào)300中%。全球性豬的領(lǐng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇后佳,繼嶺而虎在1982露年墾3見月有杜小價(jià)格的反拜轉(zhuǎn),市場(chǎng)也毒就在198架7年坊達(dá)到頂峰寺了。在犬1987年衰10月19具日奧,黑色星期乳一,價(jià)格大尿幅下降。港美國(guó)股市的舉市值損失了滋23%,相郊當(dāng)于1萬億歐美元以上的泉股本。城其次是斯在未來十年滋內(nèi)的另一個(gè)蕉復(fù)蘇,全球料持續(xù)著但不脂包括日本,孕日經(jīng)指數(shù)1貪989年到屬1992年趴從3900薪0變?yōu)?7群000,善資本損失的刻2杏.拿7萬億美元喚。最后,從火1997年陷中期到年底奏,吉隆坡、挽雅加達(dá)、曼跑谷,馬尼拉錦證券市場(chǎng)任中安我們藥損失了歡370億奪美元話,都占四個(gè)國(guó)家觀國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總礦值合計(jì)的6鄰3%,而韓決國(guó)首爾的股刻市則下跌了棒60%。鏈物價(jià)變異性港以及其它增鞭強(qiáng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)企的銹來源商品價(jià)柄格,特別是犧那些在初級(jí)怠產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng),退自20世稠紀(jì)70年代車以來就受到他大的波動(dòng),己它是箭建立總在木1973-玻4的石油價(jià)蠢格上漲紀(jì)的基礎(chǔ)上的海。躁這種差異也崗有其他金融讓市場(chǎng),特別聽是股市的溢禮出效應(yīng),從鍬而佐證認(rèn)為歌,錯(cuò)它養(yǎng)這樣聞對(duì)待一個(gè)砸澇碎分離的金斧融市場(chǎng)從根威本上睡來說是與不正確。畝重大的政策中和法律的變等化,金融服雨務(wù)業(yè)的全球戴化,法律的笑變化,金融呈服務(wù)行業(yè)的兆全球化,以猶及離岸金融價(jià)活動(dòng)的出現(xiàn)殃也增加了金同融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。繩最后,需隨著紛世界貿(mào)易皮的凡發(fā)展鵝,貿(mào)易政策療發(fā)生重大變喊化,稍處于司經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治支轉(zhuǎn)型期的前澡蘇聯(lián)集團(tuán),帆歐盟和亞洲城虎經(jīng)濟(jì)芽體蛙的出現(xiàn)導(dǎo)致做全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與乒相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)許增加從而成絨為仰經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)。國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞增加的金融砍市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)絹已經(jīng)烘成驢為國(guó)際投資留問題的評(píng)價(jià)償之一,也是絲適當(dāng)措施的麻采取可能對(duì)賞國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的絲產(chǎn)生重要影卸響。在我們還審議

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