TED英語演講：愛情的三大秘訣

Word文檔TED英語演講：愛情的三大秘訣TED是Technology,Entertainment,Design(科技、消遣、設(shè)計)的縮寫，這個會議的宗旨是用思想的力氣來轉(zhuǎn)變世界。TED演講的特點是毫無繁雜冗長的專業(yè)講座，觀點洪亮，開門見山，種類繁多，看法新奇。而且還是特別好的英語口語聽力練習(xí)材料，建議堅持學(xué)習(xí)。下面是我為大家收集關(guān)于TED英語演講：愛情的三大秘訣，歡迎借鑒參考。

演講者：HannahFry

演講稿

TodayIwanttotalktoyouaboutthemathematicsoflove.Now,Ithinkthatwecanallagreethatmathematiciansarefamouslyexcellentatfindinglove.Butitsnotjustbecauseofourdashingpersonalities,superiorconversationalskillsandexcellentpencilcases.Itsalsobecauseweveactuallydoneanawfullotofworkintothemathsofhowtofindtheperfectpartner.

今日我想要和大家談?wù)勱P(guān)于愛情的數(shù)學(xué)。我想大家都同意數(shù)學(xué)家在查找真愛上特殊在行。但那并不是是由于我們精力充足的性格，超凡的對話技巧，和極好的筆盒。也是由于我們真的花了很多時間精力在數(shù)學(xué)上，計算如何找到完善的伴侶。

Now,inmyfavoritepaperonthesubject,whichisentitled,WhyIDontHaveaGirlfriend--PeterBackustriestoratehischancesoffindinglove.Now,Petersnotaverygreedyman.OfalloftheavailablewomenintheUK,allPeterslookingforissomebodywholivesnearhim,somebodyintherightagerange,somebodywithauniversitydegree,somebodyheslikelytogetonwellwith,somebodywhoslikelytobeattractive,somebodywhoslikelytofindhimattractive.Andcomesupwithanestimateof26womeninthewholeoftheUK.Itsnotlookingverygood,isitPeter?Now,justtoputthatintoperspective,thatsabout400timesfewerthanthebestestimatesofhowmanyintelligentextraterrestriallifeformsthereare.AnditalsogivesPetera1in285,000chanceofbumpingintoanyoneofthesespecialladiesonagivennightout.Idliketothinkthatswhymathematiciansdontreallybothergoingonnightsoutanymore.

現(xiàn)在，在此學(xué)科中我最愛的論文，名為“為什么我沒有女友”(笑聲)PeterBackus試著計算他尋得真愛的機(jī)會?，F(xiàn)在，Peter不是一個特別貪心的人。在英國全部相宜的女性對象中，彼得所看的，就只是那個住在他四周的對象，某個處于相宜的年齡階段，某個擁有高校文憑，某個他很有可能相處地不錯的對象，某個有魅力的女子，以及某個認(rèn)為他也富有魅力的對象。(笑聲)結(jié)果他估量在全英國也許有26位此類女性。這看來很不妙，不是嗎，彼得?我們好好思索一下這件事，在很多聰慧外星生命形式存在的狀況下，那是少于400倍數(shù)的估量呀。那也給了彼得一個在某晚遇見一個特殊的女子28萬5千之1的機(jī)會。我寧愿想就是著那為什么數(shù)學(xué)家不再怎么想晚上出去約會了。

ThethingisthatIpersonallydontsubscribetosuchapessimisticview.BecauseIknow,justaswellasallofyoudo,thatlovedoesntreallyworklikethat.Humanemotionisntneatlyorderedandrationalandeasilypredictable.ButIalsoknowthatthatdoesntmeanthatmathematicshasntgotsomethingthatitcanofferus,because,love,aswithmostoflife,isfullofpatternsandmathematicsis,ultimately,allaboutthestudyofpatterns.Patternsfrompredictingtheweathertothefluctuationsinthestockmarket,tothemovementoftheplanetsorthegrowthofcities.Andifwerebeinghonest,noneofthosethingsareexactlyneatlyorderedandeasilypredictable,either.BecauseIbelievethatmathematicsissopowerfulthatithasthepotentialtoofferusanewwayoflookingatalmostanything.Evensomethingasmysteriousaslove.Andso,totrytopersuadeyouofhowtotallyamazing,excellentandrelevantmathematicsis,Iwanttogiveyoumytopthreemathematicallyverifiabletipsforlove.

重點是，我個人其實并不同意這種悲觀的看法。由于我知道，猶如你們?nèi)克赖?，愛情并不是這樣發(fā)生的。人類的情感不是那樣地秩序井然，潔凈利落，規(guī)律清楚，以及簡單猜測。但我也知道那并不意謂著數(shù)學(xué)無法供應(yīng)關(guān)心，由于愛情，猶如生命中多數(shù)的事物一般，充斥著很多規(guī)律，而數(shù)學(xué)，最終，就是那講求規(guī)律的學(xué)說。從猜測天候，到猜測股票市場的開高走低，到星球的運轉(zhuǎn)，或都市的進(jìn)展。假如我們對自己誠懇的話，上述那些東西，沒有一個是井然有序以及簡單猜測的。由于我信任，數(shù)學(xué)的力氣特別強(qiáng)大，以至于它讓我們得以以新方法重新看待任何事物。就算是和愛情一般神奇的東西也是。為了試著勸說你們數(shù)學(xué)的神妙用處，我想要給大家三個最重要的在數(shù)學(xué)上可以驗證的愛情秘訣。

OK,soTopTip#1:Howtowinatonlinedating.SomyfavoriteonlinedatingwebsiteisOkCupid,notleastbecauseitwasstartedbyagroupofmathematicians.Now,becausetheyremathematicians,theyhavebeencollectingdataoneverybodywhousestheirsiteforalmostadecade.Andtheyvebeentryingtosearchforpatternsinthewaythatwetalkaboutourselvesandthewaythatweinteractwitheachotheronanonlinedatingwebsite.Andtheyvecomeupwithsomeseriouslyinterestingfindings.Butmyparticularfavoriteisthatitturnsoutthatonanonlinedatingwebsite,howattractiveyouaredoesnotdictatehowpopularyouare,andactually,havingpeoplethinkthatyoureuglycanworktoyouradvantage.Letmeshowyouhowthisworks.InathankfullyvoluntarysectionofOkCupid,youareallowedtoratehowattractiveyouthinkpeopleareonascalebetweenoneandfive.Now,ifwecomparethisscore,theaveragescore,tohowmanymessagesaselectionofpeoplereceive,youcanbegintogetasenseofhowattractivenesslinkstopopularityonanonlinedatingwebsite.

好，首先最重要的秘技一：如何贏得線上交友的機(jī)會。我最愛的線上交友網(wǎng)站是OkCupid(網(wǎng)站名：好吧，丘比特)，這并不僅僅由于這網(wǎng)站是由一群數(shù)學(xué)家所架設(shè)的。由于他們是數(shù)學(xué)家，他們已經(jīng)搜集了近乎這十年來全部他們網(wǎng)站使用者的資料。他們試著電子郵件查找我們用英語上談?wù)摃r間和自己的方式的模式，以及我們和他人互動的模式。他們發(fā)覺了一些重要的好玩結(jié)果。但我特殊喜愛的結(jié)果之一是在線上交友網(wǎng)站上你的魅力程度并無法猜測你的受歡迎程度，事實上，讓人們覺得你很丑可以讓你擁有優(yōu)勢。讓我向各位展現(xiàn)這是怎么一回事。在OkCupid的一個愿愿欄目中，你可以評價人們的魅力值，從1到5?，F(xiàn)在，假如我們比較這個分?jǐn)?shù)，平均分?jǐn)?shù)，有多少人收到信息，你就可以開頭理解在一個線上約會網(wǎng)站上魅力指數(shù)與受歡迎程度有關(guān)。

ThisisthegraphtheOkCupidguyshavecomeupwith.Andtheimportantthingtonoticeisthatitsnottotallytruethatthemoreattractiveyouare,themoremessagesyouget.Butthequestionarisesthenofwhatisitaboutpeopleupherewhoaresomuchmorepopularthanpeopledownhere,eventhoughtheyhavethesamescoreofattractiveness?Andthereasonwhyisthatitsnotjuststraightforwardlooksthatareimportant.Soletmetrytoillustratetheirfindingswithanexample.SoifyoutakesomeonelikePortiadeRossi,forexample,everybodyagreesthatPortiadeRossiisaverybeautifulwoman.Nobodythinksthatshesugly,butshesnotasupermodel,either.IfyoucomparePortiadeRossitosomeonelikeSarahJessicaParker,now,alotofpeople,myselfincluded,Ishouldsay,thinkthatSarahJessicaParkerisseriouslyfabulousandpossiblyoneofthemostbeautifulcreaturestohaveeverhavewalkedonthefaceoftheEarth.Butsomeotherpeople,i.e.,mostoftheInternet...seemtothinkthatshelooksabitlikeahorse.Now,IthinkthatifyouaskpeoplehowattractivetheythoughtJessicaParkerorPortiadeRossiwere,andyouaskthemtogivethemascorebetweenoneandfiveIreckonthattheydaverageouttohaveroughlythesamescore.Butthewaythatpeoplewouldvotewouldbeverydifferent.SoPortiasscoreswouldallbeclusteredaroundthefourbecauseeverybodyagreesthatshesverybeautiful,whereasSarahJessicaParkercompletelydividesopinion.Theredbeahugespreadinherscores.Andactuallyitsthisspreadthatcounts.ItsthisspreadthatmakesyoumorepopularonanonlineInternetdatingwebsite.Sowhatthatmeansthenisthatifsomepeoplethinkthatyoureattractive,youreactuallybetteroffhavingsomeotherpeoplethinkthatyoureamassiveminger.Thatsmuchbetterthaneverybodyjustthinkingthatyourethecutegirlnextdoor.

這是OkCupid得到的圖表。一件重要的值得留意的事是并不是越有魅力的人，收到的信息越多。問題是，為什么上面的這些人比下面這些人要受歡迎得多，即便他們都有相同的魅力值?緣由是，并不是直觀的外貌是重要的。讓我來談?wù)勊麄兊陌l(fā)覺，以一個案例說明。假如你拿PortiadeRossi為例，每個人都同意PortiadeRossi是個特別漂亮的女人，沒有人覺得她丑，但她也不是超模。假如你拿某個人，比如莎拉杰西卡帕克(譯者注：欲望都市女主角)狀語從句：來她比較很多人，包括我自己，我應(yīng)當(dāng)會說，SarahJessicaParker魅力極為出眾，有可能是地表上最漂亮的物種之一。但很多其他人，比如，大多數(shù)的網(wǎng)友好像都認(rèn)為她看起來像馬。(笑聲)假如你問人們他們覺得自己有多美，莎拉杰西卡帕克或波蒂亞德羅西你要他們給自己打分，從1到5，我猜他們也會大約。一個和大家都差不多的數(shù)字但是人們投票的方式各自不同。因此鮑西婭的分?jǐn)?shù)會聚集在4分左右，由于全部人都同意，她特別漂亮，然而人們對莎拉杰西卡帕克卻有截然不同的看法。她的分差懸殊很大。然而，事實上，就是那分差別具意義，那差異讓你在交友網(wǎng)站上受歡迎。所以那意味著假如有些人認(rèn)為你別具魅力，你最好有其他人認(rèn)為你很丑。那遠(yuǎn)優(yōu)于全部人認(rèn)為你的英文鄰家的女孩可愛。

Now,Ithinkthisbeginstomakeabitmoresensewhenyouthinkintermsofthepeoplewhoaresendingthesemessages.Soletssaythatyouthinksomebodysattractive,butyoususpectthatotherpeoplewontnecessarilybethatinterested.Thatmeansthereslesscompetitionforyouanditsanextraincentiveforyoutogetintouch.Whereascomparethattoifyouthinksomebodyisattractivebutyoususpectthateverybodyisgoingtothinktheyreattractive.Well,whywouldyoubotherhumiliatingyourself,letsbehonest?Buthereswherethereallyinterestingpartcomes.Becausewhenpeoplechoosethepicturesthattheyuseonanonlinedatingwebsite,theyoftentrytominimizethethingsthattheythinksomepeoplewillfindunattractive.Theclassicexampleispeoplewhoare,perhaps,alittlebitoverweightdeliberatelychoosingaverycroppedphoto,orbaldmen,forexample,deliberatelychoosingpictureswheretheyrewearinghats.Butactuallythisistheoppositeofwhatyoushoulddoifyouwanttobesuccessful.Youshouldreally,instead,playuptowhateveritisthatmakesyoudifferent,evenifyouthinkthatsomepeoplewillfinditunattractive.Becausethepeoplewhofancyyouarejustgoingtofancyyouanyway,andtheunimportantloserswhodont,well,theyonlyplayuptoyouradvantage.

當(dāng)你們開頭思索一下這些寄送信息的人的話，這開頭變得合理些了。這么說吧，假設(shè)你認(rèn)為那個人很美，但你同時猜想其他人并不會和你有同樣的審美觀。那就意味著，你的競爭對手略少，這就給你增加了額外的動機(jī)去與他/她熟悉。與之相對的狀況是你認(rèn)為某人很有吸引力，但你猜想全部其他的人都認(rèn)為那人很有吸引力，嗯，讓我們面對事實為什么要自取其辱呢呢?這就是最好玩的部分。由于當(dāng)人們?nèi)ミx擇他們在交友網(wǎng)站上使用的照片時，他們總是試圖最小化其他人認(rèn)為不吸引人之處的可能性。最經(jīng)典的例子是，那些體重略重的人有意選擇一個剪裁特別不正的照片，例如那些禿頂?shù)哪惺?，有意去選擇他們帶著帽子的照片。但你的行為是與你的目標(biāo)相悖的，假如你想要在網(wǎng)上交友勝利。你真的應(yīng)當(dāng)，去選擇讓你看起來與眾不同的照片，即便你為某些人會對此失去愛好。由于那些喜愛你的人無論如何都會去喜愛你，而那些不重要的路人只是渲染你的優(yōu)勢。

OK,TopTip#2:Howtopicktheperfectpartner.Soletsimaginethenthatyourearoaringsuccessonthedatingscene.Butthequestionarisesofhowdoyouthenconvertthatsuccessintolonger-termhappiness,andinparticular,howdoyoudecidewhenistherighttimetosettledown?Nowgenerally,itsnotadvisabletojustcashinandmarrythefirstpersonwhocomesalongandshowsyouanyinterestatall.But,equally,youdontreallywanttoleaveittoolongifyouwanttomaximizeyourchanceoflong-termhappiness.Asmyfavoriteauthor,JaneAusten,putsit,Anunmarriedwomanofsevenandtwentycanneverhopetofeelorinspireaffectionagain.(Laughter)Thanksalot,Jane.Whatdoyouknowaboutlove?

好了，最高秘訣2號：如何選擇完善的伴侶。讓我們想象你的約會精彩勝利。但問題來了你如何將那勝利的約會轉(zhuǎn)變成長期的歡樂，尤其是，你要如何選擇在哪個時刻安定下來?一般來說，并建議人們立即與第一個消失對你表達(dá)好感的人結(jié)婚。但是，一般來說，假如你想要最大化你將來數(shù)十年幸?；橐龅臋C(jī)會，你也不愿等待太久。我最喜愛的作家簡奧斯汀這樣說，“一個未婚的27歲女子就別希望再能感受或激發(fā)愛情了。”(笑聲)這太嚴(yán)峻了，簡。你對愛了解多少呢?

Sothequestionisthen,howdoyouknowwhenistherighttimetosettledown,givenallthepeoplethatyoucandateinyourlifetime?Thankfully,theresaratherdeliciousbitofmathematicsthatwecanusetohelpusouthere,calledoptimalstoppingtheory.Soletsimagine,then,thatyoustartdatingwhenyoure15andideally,youdliketobemarriedbythetimethatyoure35.Andtheresanumberofpeoplethatyoucouldpotentiallydateacrossyourlifetime,andtheyllbeatvaryinglevelsofgoodness.Nowtherulesarethatonceyoucashinandgetmarried,youcantlookaheadtoseewhatyoucouldhavehad,andequally,youcantgobackandchangeyourmind.Inmyexperienceatleast,Ifindthattypicallypeopledontmuchlikebeingrecalledyearsafterbeingpassedupforsomebodyelse,orthatsjustme.

那么問題來了，你怎么知道哪個時刻是該安定下來的時刻，究竟生命中你有許多可能的對象?幸好，我們可以運用一點兒數(shù)學(xué)來關(guān)心我們計算解決這個問題，名叫“最優(yōu)停止理論“。那么讓我們來想象一下，你在15歲的時候開頭交往，抱負(fù)狀態(tài)下，你在35歲的時候會結(jié)婚。你的人生中有許多潛在的約會對象，他們都有各自的優(yōu)點。規(guī)章是，你一旦跳進(jìn)婚姻，你就不能連續(xù)前進(jìn)查找你可能可以有的對象，你也不能回頭來轉(zhuǎn)變你的辦法。我個人的閱歷看來，一般人們不盼望在被拒絕又過了多年后被找回來，或許只有我這樣想。

Sothemathsaysthenthatwhatyoushoulddointhefirst37percentofyourdatingwindow,youshouldjustrejecteverybodyasseriousmarriagepotential.Andthen,youshouldpickthenextpersonthatcomesalongthatisbetterthaneverybodythatyouveseenbefore.Soherestheexample.Nowifyoudothis,itcanbemathematicallyproven,infact,thatthisisthebestpossiblewayofmaximizingyourchancesoffindingtheperfectpartner.Nowunfortunately,Ihavetotellyouthatthismethoddoescomewithsomerisks.Forinstance,imagineifyourperfectpartnerappearedduringyourfirst37percent.Now,unfortunately,youdhavetorejectthem.Now,ifyourefollowingthemaths,Imafraidnooneelsecomesalongthatsbetterthananyoneyouveseenbefore,soyouhavetogoonrejectingeveryoneanddiealone.Probablysurroundedbycats...nibblingatyourremains.

告知數(shù)學(xué)我們你應(yīng)當(dāng)拒絕認(rèn)為會在狀語從句：你人生約會周期前37%時段消失的任何人有嚴(yán)厲?仔細(xì)的婚姻關(guān)系。接著，你要選擇下一個人，那個比你以前約會對象都好的人。這里舉幾例。假如你這么做，從數(shù)學(xué)證明來看可以認(rèn)為，事實上這可能是最好的選擇來最大化你找到完善伴侶的機(jī)會。現(xiàn)在不幸的是，我必需告知你這個方法也是有風(fēng)險的。比如，想象一下，你假設(shè)完善的伴侶消失在你約會歷程的前37%那就很不幸了，你會拒絕他們。假如你信任數(shù)學(xué)，唯恐你不會再找到比你以往見過更好的對象，你就會持續(xù)拒絕每個人然后孤獨終老?？赡軙回堖浒鼑稽c點啃食你的遺骸。

OK,anotherriskis,letsimagine,instead,thatthefirstpeoplethatyoudatedinyourfirst37percentarejustincrediblydull,boring,terriblepeople.ThatsOK,becauseyoureinyourrejectionphase,sothatsfine,youcanrejectthem.Butthenimaginethenextpersontocomealongisjustmarginallylessboring,dullandterrible...thaneverybodythatyouveseenbefore.Now,ifyouarefollowingthemaths,Imafraidyouhavetomarrythem...andendupinarelationshipwhichis,frankly,suboptimal.Sorryaboutthat.ButIdothinkthattheresanopportunityhereforHallmarktocashinonandreallycaterforthismarket.AValentinesDaycardlikethis.Mydarlinghusband,youaremarginallylessterriblethanthefirst37percentofpeopleIdated.ItsactuallymoreromanticthanInormallymanage.

好，另一個風(fēng)險是，讓我們想象，相反的，你約會歷程前37%里第一個對象極度愚蠢，無聊又很糟糕。沒事，由于你還在拒肯定象的階段，沒問題，你可以拒絕他們。但想象一下，下一個消失的人只是沒那么無聊，愚蠢比你以前的對象都略好那么一點兒。假如你遵循數(shù)學(xué)，唯恐你要和他們結(jié)婚然后沉醉在一段，實話說，次優(yōu)的關(guān)系中。很愧疚。但我認(rèn)為，機(jī)會還是有的賀曼公司迎風(fēng)市場需求出售這樣的情人節(jié)賀卡。(笑聲)“我友愛的丈夫，你沒有我約會歷程中前37%的男士那么糟糕“。這比一般的賀卡浪漫許多。

OK,sothismethoddoesntgiveyoua100percentsuccessrate,buttheresnootherpossiblestrategythatcandoanybetter.Andactually,inthewild,therearecertaintypesoffishwhichfollowandemploythisexactstrategy.Sotheyrejecteverypossiblesuitorthatturnsupinthefirst37percentofthematingseason,andthentheypickthenextfishthatcomesalongafterthatwindowthats,Idontknow,biggerandburlierthanallofthefishthattheyveseenbefore.Ialsothinkthatsubconsciously,humans,wedosortofdothisanyway.Wegiveourselvesalittlebitoftimetoplaythefield,getafeelforthemarketplaceorwhateverwhenwereyoung.Andthenweonlystartlookingseriouslyatpotentialmarriagecandidatesoncewehitourmid-to-late20s.Ithinkthisisconclusiveproof,ifeveritwereneeded,thateverybodysbrainsareprewiredtobejustalittlebitmathematical.

這個數(shù)學(xué)方法不能保證100%的勝利率，但也沒有更好的策略了。事實上，在動物界，某個特定種類的魚遵循使用這樣的策略。在交配期，它們拒絕消失在前37%的每個求婚者，接著它們選擇37%后消失的下一個比所見過的魚體型更加浩大，更加牢固的魚。我想作為人類我們潛意識里也在做同樣的選擇。我們給自己更多時間查找，在我們年輕的時候感受婚戀市場。我們只有在20歲年齡段的中后期才會很真查找潛在的結(jié)婚對象。我想這證明白，即使不確定是否需要，每個人的大腦都預(yù)配了點兒數(shù)學(xué)力量。

OK,sothatwasTopTip#2.Now,TopTip#3:Howtoavoiddivorce.OK,soletsimaginethenthatyoupickedyourperfectpartnerandyouresettlingintoalifelongrelationshipwiththem.Now,Iliketothinkthateverybodywouldideallyliketoavoiddivorce,apartfrom,Idontknow,PiersMorganswife,maybe?ButitsasadfactofmodernlifethatoneintwomarriagesintheStatesendsindivorce,withtherestoftheworldnotbeingfarbehind.Now,youcanbeforgiven,perhapsforthinkingthattheargumentsthatprecedeamaritalbreakuparenotanidealcandidateformathematicalinvestigation.Foronething,itsveryhardtoknowwhatyoushouldbemeasuringorwhatyoushouldbequantifying.Butthisdidntstopapsychologist,JohnGottman,whodidexactlythat.Gottmanobservedhundredsofcoupleshavingaconversationandrecorded,well,everythingyoucanthinkof.Soherecordedwhatwassaidintheconversation,herecordedtheirskinconductivity,herecordedtheirfacialexpressions,theirheartrates,theirbloodpressure,basicallyeverythingapartfromwhetherornotthewifewasactuallyalwaysright,whichincidentallyshetotallyis.ButwhatGottmanandhisteamfoundwasthatoneofthemostimportantpredictorsforwhetherornotacoupleisgoingtogetdivorcedwashowpositiveornegativeeachpartnerwasbeingintheconversation.

好，上述就是最高秘訣2號?，F(xiàn)在，最高秘訣3號：如何避開離婚。好的，讓我們想象一下你找到了你的完善對象你和他/她進(jìn)入了一生的婚姻關(guān)系。我假設(shè)每個人都不盼望離婚，當(dāng)然，或許除了PiersMorgan的太太?可是，現(xiàn)代婚姻一個哀痛的事實就是美國離婚率高達(dá)50%，世界其他國家也離這個數(shù)據(jù)不遠(yuǎn)。當(dāng)然，你可以認(rèn)為婚姻裂開的緣由不是數(shù)學(xué)運算抱負(fù)的數(shù)據(jù)源。一方面來說，很難了解到你該去測量什么或者是你該去量化什么。但這并沒有阻擋心理學(xué)家JohnGottman做這樣的討論。Gottman觀看了數(shù)百對夫婦的對談盡可能錄下來全部信息。記錄了對話的內(nèi)容，皮膚的傳導(dǎo)性，面部表情，心跳，血壓，基本上除了“太太永久是對的”以外的全部東西，當(dāng)然，太太永久是對的。但是，高特曼他狀語從句：團(tuán)隊的發(fā)覺最能夠精確?????猜測這對夫妻是否會將來的離婚的英文方在對話過程中樂觀還是消極。

Now,couplesthatwereverylow-riskscoredalotmorepositivepointsonGottmansscalethannegative.Whereasbadrelationships,bywhichImean,probablygoingtogetdivorced,theyfoundthemselvesgettingintoaspiralofnegativity.Nowjustbyusingtheseverysimpleideas,Gottmanandhisgroupwereabletopredictwhetheragivencouplewasgoingtogetdivorcedwitha90percentaccuracy.Butitwasntuntilheteamedupwithamathematician,JamesMurray,thattheyreallystartedtounderstandwhatcausesthesenegativityspiralsandhowtheyoccur.Andtheresultsthattheyfound,Ithink,arejustincrediblyimpressivelysimpleandinteresting.Sotheseequationspredicthowthewifeorhusbandisgoingtorespondintheirnextturnoftheconversation,howpositiveornegativetheyregoingtobe.Andtheseequationsdependonthemoodofthepersonwhentheyreontheirown,themoodofthepersonwhentheyrewiththeirpartner,butmostimportantly,theydependonhowmuchthehusbandandwifeinfluenceoneanother.

那些離婚風(fēng)險很低的夫妻在戈特曼的測試中得到了更多正面而不是負(fù)面的分?jǐn)?shù)。相反的，在糟糕的關(guān)系中，我是指那些可能離婚的夫妻，他們發(fā)覺自己沉醉在消極的漩渦中。就用這些特別簡潔的方法，Gottman和他的團(tuán)隊能夠精確?????猜測一對夫妻是否會離婚，精確?????率高達(dá)90%但是，直到他與數(shù)學(xué)家JamesMurray聯(lián)手，他們才真正找出那些消極漩渦是如何產(chǎn)生，為什么產(chǎn)生的。結(jié)果是他們發(fā)覺我認(rèn)為不行思議議太令人贊嘆的簡潔而好玩。這些算式，他們用來猜測妻子或是丈夫是如何去回應(yīng)他們下一段對話，他們的樂觀或消極程度是多少。這些算式，取決于當(dāng)他們獨處時各自的心情，當(dāng)他們和伴侶在一起時候的心情，但最重要的是，取決于丈夫和妻子相互間的影響。

Now,Ithinkitsimportanttopointoutatthisstage,thattheseexactequationshavealsobeenshowntobeperfectlyableatdescribingwhathappensbetweentwocountriesinanarmsrace.Sothatanarguingcouplespiralingintonegativityandteeteringonthebrinkofdivorceisactuallymathematicallyequivalenttothebeginningofanuclearwar.

在這個階段我認(rèn)為最重要的是，這個一模一樣的算式同時也可以完善猜測兩個國家是否會開戰(zhàn)。因此一對沉醉于消極心情在離婚邊緣搖擺的夫妻-實際在數(shù)學(xué)上等同于即將開頭一場核戰(zhàn)斗。

Butthereallyimportantterminthisequationistheinfluencethatpeoplehaveononeanother,andinparticular,somethingcalledthenegativitythreshold.Now,thenegativitythreshold,youcanthinkofashowannoyingthehusbandcanbebeforethewifestartstogetreallypissedoff,andviceversa.Now,Ialwaysthoughtthatgoodmarriageswereaboutcompromiseandunderstandingandallowingthepersontohavethespacetobethemselves.SoIwouldhavethoughtthatperhapsthemostsuccessfulrelationshipswereoneswheretherewasareallyhighnegativitythreshold.Wherecouplesletthingsgoandonlybroughtthingsupiftheyreallywereabigdeal.Butactually,themathematicsandsubsequ