最新商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資分析

1、 EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe government-led recovery has been popularlylabeled Abenomics, due to Prime Minister Abes push forward with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP stimulus package. With real GDP growth estimated at 2.3%, the Japanese economy is showing signs that a recovery is underway, alongside imp

2、roving business confidence as shown in the latest quarterly Tankan Survey. T his has started to translate into positive movement in the J-REITs and real estate company stock indexes, which significantly outperform the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX. The signs are also evident in the retail markets w

3、ith increased sales for luxury goods, and the rising rents on Tokyos main streets.With J-REITs aggressive buying and anticipated rental growth, the domestic property funds and landlords are increasingly bullish. Overseas investors have increased their appetite, taking advantage of the steepdepreciat

4、ion of the Japanese Yen. However, there is a limited number of assets coming onto the market because sellers are taking a wait-and-see stance in the market, expecting a further rise in value. As such, the transaction volume could not exceed the average level of the past three years. However, gaps be

5、tween sellers and buyers are expected to narrow as buyers get more aggressive, backed by stronger confidence and actual effective rental growth.Q1 2013TOKYOINVESTMENT MARKETBEATA Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication MARKET SNAPSHOTQ1 2013A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication ECONOMI

6、C OVERVIEWThe Japanese economy in 2013 is forecast to see stable growth driven by the private sector, after posting 2.0% GDP growth in 2012. There have been a number of indicators to support the recovery including a robust surge in stock prices and upward forecast business plan corrections for a lar

7、ge number of corporate manufacturers in response to steep depreciation of the Japanese Yen. The government-led recovery has been popularly labeledAbenomics due to Prime Minister Abes push forward with the LDP stimulus package. These initiatives have encouraged the private sector to increase investme

8、nts in plants and equipment by means of the reduction of capital spending taxes announced in January. INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT & STOCK MARKETThe latest quarterly Tankan Surveyprevailing business confidence indicator, either of manufactures or non-manufactureshas improved steadily. Although manufac

9、tures still showed a negative reading due to the current recovery led by the finance sector reflecting bold monetary easing policy, some of them have started to expand by investing in domestic plants or increasing leased space, anticipating business growth for exporting companies benefited from the

10、steep depreciation of Japanese Yen. This also sustains a healthy growth of demand for property in the industrial sector. Regarding the lending environment, despite current compressions of yield for Japanese Government Bond (10 years, the yield is forecast to go up for years to come. Similarly, long-

11、term interest rates are thought to be increasing associated with the prospect of a 2% inflation target led by the government. Besides a robust surge in TOPIX, real estate company shares and J-REITs have significantly outperformed TOPIX.CAPITAL TRANSACTION MARKET & OUTLOOK Against the backdrop of

12、 the heightened performance of J-REITs, domestic property funds and some landlords are bullish, anticipating rental growth and have acquired assets while borrowing rate remains low. Likewise, the property market attracted overseas investors by taking advantage of the steep depreciation of Japanese Y

13、en, whereas the market could be seen premature to invest without actual increases in effective rent. Also, corporations other than those in the property industry sought properties, aiming at income gains.On the supply side, however, there is a limited number of assets coming onto the market because

14、sellers have adopted a wait-and-see approach as the market anticipates increases in value. Also J-REITs and other companies seeking income gains are currently buyers rather than sellers. As such transaction volume could not exceed the past three years average level despite surges in property indexes

15、. However, gaps between sellers and buyers are expected to narrow as buyers are more aggressive for acquisitions backed by stronger confidence with effective rental growth. STATS ON THE GOLOCAL CURRENCY(JPYUS$EQUIVALENTY-O-Y CHANGE INLOCAL CURRECNY OFFICEInvestment Volume 378.2billion 4.0 billion 20

16、.1% Price per square foot 96,063 1,016 21.8% RETAILInvestment Volume 94.6 billion 1.0 billion 179.7% Price per square foot 78,098 826 65.4% INDUSTRIALInvestment Volume 18.9billion 0.2 billion -86.1% Price per square foot 25,529 270 67.1% YIELD Q1 2013 Q-O-Q CHANGE Y-O-Y CHANGE Office 5.2% -0.1pp -0.

17、1pp Retail 6.0% +0.53pp +0.62pp Industrial 6.4% -0.17pp -0.43pp Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 94.55 Yen as at 23 March 2013Source: Real Capital Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield ResearchLocal GDP growth for 2013 is projected to rise above 2% as Abenomics continues OFFICE TRANSACTIONS OVERVIEW & OUTLOO

18、K Although the first quarter saw a tightened capital market wherethere were limited assets for sale versus an increased number of buyers, transaction volume retained the past three years average level. The most aggressive buyer was Nippon Building Fund from J-REITs who acquired two buildings owned b

19、y manufacturing giants, Panasonic and Sony. These transactions drove the average yield further down. Yields are forecast to compress a little, with an anticipated rental growth, given the continuation of a tightened capital market amidst an unlikely prospect for increased assets for sale. RETAIL TRA

20、NSACTIONS OVERVIEW & OUTLOOKQ1 saw transaction volumes increase Y-o-Y basis, it retained the past 3 years average level. The market was driven by J-REITs who selectively acquired retail premises on high streets. Although yield hiked to 6.0% this quarter affected by a higher yield of individual t

21、ransaction sample, the average of the rest of the yields was 5.3%. Yields are forecast to be compressed due to anticipated rise in values amid tightened capital market derived originally from fewer new construction completions in the market. Also a rise in values is justified by further rental growt

22、h forecast in the progressing recovery of overall consumer markets. INDUSTRIAL TRANSACTIONS OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK Although the first quarter saw the transaction volume slowed down on a year-on-year basis, it retained the past average level except for first quarter 2012. The market was driven by J-R

23、EITs playing a key role in compressing average yields. Yields are forecast to compress a little, amidst a tightened capital market on the back of stable rents and anticipated low levels of vacancy rate. Although new construction completions in the later half of this year may cause a rise in the vaca

24、ncy rate, the stability of rents would continue to be sustained by growing tenants demand, especially derived from the growth potential of online shopping. CONCLUSIONLed by the government along with the private sector, a rapid across-the-board the recovery is possible, with improved fundamentals as

25、seen in the consumer markets. Business confidence, which continues to be sustained by the stimulus package, is increasingly apparent as witnessed by the robust surge in stock prices. While J-REITs is currently seeing price corrections due partly to the yields having been highly compressed after they

26、 have experienced continual rises for the last several months, they are expected to drive the real estate markets and act as an alternative exit strategy to investors. Although the transaction volume could not exceed the past three years average level, partly because sellers are taking a wait-and-se

27、e stance in the market expecting a further rise in value, gaps between sellers and buyers are expected to narrow as buyers get more aggressive, backed by stronger confidence and actual effective rental growth.MAJOR TRANSACTIONSPROPERTY NAME PROPERTY TYPE DISTRICT / SUBMARKET PURCHASER AREA / GFASF C

28、ONSIDERATION / PURCHASE PRICE UNIT PRICEUS$/SF US$ MILLION YEN MILLIONSony City Osaki Office Shinagawa Ward/ Osaki Nippon Building Fund JV SMFL 1,335,182 1,205 113,933 903 Panasonic TokyoShiodome (B4-24FOffice Minato Ward/Shiodome Nippon Building Fund 492,712 548 51,813 1,112Yodobashi CameraMultimed

29、ia KichiojiRetail Musashino City/Kichioji United Urban Investment 408,310 302 28,554 740 Ikebukuro Square Retail Toshima/Higashi-ikebukuro Frontier REIT 95,410 221 20,896 2,320 GLP Tatsumi Industrial Koto Ward / Tatsumi GLP Investment Corporation 139,131 57 5,389 411 Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 94.55 Yen

30、 as at 23 March 2013Source: Real Capital Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Research(和訳要旨日本政府主導(dǎo)回復(fù)、自民黨安倍政権景気刺激策好感名付。日本経済今年GDP成長(zhǎng)率2.3%見(jiàn)込、日銀短観改善併経済回復(fù)進(jìn)行兆候示。J-REITs不動(dòng)産株上昇東証TOPIX大幅上回。実際、兆候、高級(jí)品売上増加?xùn)|京主要商業(yè)賃料上昇市場(chǎng)実體経済目見(jiàn)形現(xiàn)。J-REITs賃料上昇期待物件対積極的買(mǎi)姿勢(shì)、國(guó)內(nèi)不動(dòng)産不動(dòng)産賃貸業(yè)者益強(qiáng)気。一方、海外投資家急激円安武器日本物件取得意欲高。、売主更価格上昇期待様子見(jiàn)、市場(chǎng)出物件數(shù)限。市況、今、

31、物件取引量過(guò)去3年間平均的水準(zhǔn)上回。、実質(zhì)的賃料上昇買(mǎi)主自信深、積極的、売主買(mǎi)主価格目線(xiàn)差縮。経済概観昨年GDP成長(zhǎng)率2.0%引続、2013年日本経済民間部門(mén)牽引安定成長(zhǎng)予想。株価上昇、急激円安進(jìn)行受製造業(yè)中心業(yè)績(jī)見(jiàn)込上方修正企業(yè)相次、経済回復(fù)裏付指標(biāo)事欠。政府主導(dǎo)回復(fù)、自民黨景気刺激策安倍首相推進(jìn)好感名付。景気刺激策、1月公表設(shè)備投資減稅策含、民間部門(mén)設(shè)備投資増積極的支援。投資環(huán)境全般、株市場(chǎng)製造業(yè)、非製造業(yè)最新日銀短観著実改善見(jiàn)?，F(xiàn)在回復(fù)、先大膽緩和金融牽引、製造業(yè)日銀短観。、急激円安恩恵輸出関連製造業(yè)成長(zhǎng)期待、一部製造強(qiáng)化床借増事業(yè)拡大開(kāi)始。伴、不動(dòng)産市場(chǎng)需要相応増。一方、資金調(diào)達(dá)環(huán)境関

32、、昨今新発國(guó)債(10年圧縮、今後數(shù)年上昇基調(diào)予想。、長(zhǎng)期金利、政府目標(biāo)2%基本的連攜、上昇考。不動(dòng)産関連株価上昇、東証TOPIX力強(qiáng)上昇上回。売買(mǎi)市場(chǎng)今後J-REITs好調(diào)背景、國(guó)內(nèi)不動(dòng)産不動(dòng)産賃貸業(yè)者賃料上昇見(jiàn)込、金利低物件取得、益強(qiáng)気。同様、海外投資家急激円安武器日本不動(dòng)作市場(chǎng)魅力的見(jiàn)。一方、海外投資家一部、実質(zhì)的賃料上昇確認(rèn)、投資市場(chǎng)熟見(jiàn)向。、不動(dòng)産業(yè)以外企業(yè)目的物件探動(dòng)見(jiàn)。、物件供給、売主更価格上昇期待様子見(jiàn)姿勢(shì)、市場(chǎng)出物件數(shù)限。、目的J-REITs國(guó)內(nèi)不動(dòng)産、目下買(mǎi)主売主。市況、不動(dòng)産指標(biāo)上昇関物件取引量過(guò)去3年間平均的水準(zhǔn)上回。言、実質(zhì)的賃料上昇、買(mǎi)主自信深、積極的、売主買(mǎi)主価格目

33、線(xiàn)差縮期待。取引市場(chǎng)概観今後取引市場(chǎng)、限物件數(shù)対、買(mǎi)主増逼迫、取引量過(guò)去3年間平均的水準(zhǔn)維持。最積極的買(mǎi)主J-REITs日本、Panasonic Sony自社取得。取引平均押下。売物件増加中、今後逼迫売買(mǎi)需給続、賃料上昇期待併、圧縮予想。取引市場(chǎng)概観今後今期取引量前年同期比増加、過(guò)去3年間平均的水準(zhǔn)維持。面物件厳選取得J-REITs市場(chǎng)牽引。高取引事例、平均6.0%上昇、事例除平均5.3%。市場(chǎng)元來(lái)開(kāi)発物件限、今後逼迫売買(mǎi)需給下、物件価格上昇伴圧縮予想。、消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)全般回復(fù)進(jìn)中、賃料上昇予測(cè)下、物件価格上昇合理的説明考。取引市場(chǎng)概観今後今期取引量前年同期比減少、好調(diào)昨年除過(guò)去平均的水準(zhǔn)維持。J-

34、REITs取得事例平均押下市場(chǎng)牽引。安定賃料、低空室率水準(zhǔn)背景、今後逼迫売買(mǎi)需給下、圧縮予想。今年後半供給空室率上昇思、通信販売市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)潛在力由來(lái)需要伸支、賃料安定性継続思。結(jié)論民間連攜政府主導(dǎo)、消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)実體経済改善併、急速回復(fù)見(jiàn)始。株価上昇見(jiàn)、景気刺激策支形向上一層鮮明。J-REITs何月間価格上昇、圧縮、調(diào)整。、J-REITs不動(dòng)産投資家出口戦略選択肢、今後市場(chǎng)牽引思。売主更価格上昇期待様子見(jiàn)姿勢(shì)、物件取引量過(guò)去3年間平均的水準(zhǔn)上回至、実質(zhì)的賃料上昇買(mǎi)主積極化、売主買(mǎi)主価格目線(xiàn)差縮期待。関問(wèn)合以下照會(huì)。柳町啓介(e-mail: keisuke.yanagimachi<>東京理科

35、大學(xué)卒業(yè)後、建設(shè)企業(yè)大規(guī)模商業(yè)施設(shè)設(shè)計(jì)等開(kāi)発手掛。不動(dòng)産開(kāi)発評(píng)価手法研究渡英、大學(xué)國(guó)際不動(dòng)産學(xué)修士號(hào)取得。信託銀行証券化不動(dòng)産実務(wù)経験後、不動(dòng)産投資駆使日本市場(chǎng)、世界不動(dòng)産市場(chǎng)調(diào)査分析?，F(xiàn)在、務(wù)。早稲田大學(xué)國(guó)際不動(dòng)産研究所招聘研究員、一級(jí)建築士。<>1917年創(chuàng)業(yè)、非上場(chǎng)企業(yè)世界最大総合不動(dòng)産會(huì)社。全世界60國(guó)253拠點(diǎn)、15,000名以上従業(yè)員擁。不動(dòng)産、総合的提供。詳細(xì)、以下參照。日本語(yǔ)Q1 2013 MARKET SNAPSHOT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication INVESTMENT MARKETBEAT For

36、more information about C&W Research, contact: Sigrid Zialcita Managing Director, Research, Asia Pacific +(65 6535 3232 sigrid.zialcita Cushman & Wakefield (C&W is known the world-over as an industry knowledge leader. Through the delivery of timely, accurate, high-quality research reports

37、 on the leading trends, markets around the world and business issues of the day, we aim to assist our clients in making property decisions that meet their objectives and enhance their competitive position. In addition to producing regular reports such as global rankings and local quarterly updates a

38、vailable on a regular basis, C&W also provides customized studies to meet specific information needs of owners, occupiers and investors. Cushman & Wakefield is the worlds largest privately-held commercial real estate services firm. The company advises and represents clients on all aspects of

39、 property occupancy and investment, and has established a preeminent position in the worlds major markets, as evidenced by its frequent involvement in many of the most significant property leases, sales and assignments. Founded in 1917 it has 253 offices in 60 countries and more than 14,000 employees. It offers a complete range