混合能源模型(Mixed

1、五、混合能源模型(Mixed Energy Model)描述：對能源系統(tǒng)(從能源的開采、轉(zhuǎn)化、運輸、市場到最終能源需求)的模擬，通過系統(tǒng)仿真來預(yù)測各部門能源的供應(yīng)能力、能源價格、需求量以及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)參數(shù)，從而為國家制定能源戰(zhàn)略和決策提供信息支持，因此既包括自頂向下的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，又包括自底向上的能源供應(yīng)、需求模型。這類模型是對整個能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的模擬和仿真，是一個復(fù)雜巨系統(tǒng)。研究范圍多是全球的、區(qū)域的或國家的，結(jié)構(gòu)上也多是包括經(jīng)濟(jì)、供應(yīng)、轉(zhuǎn)化、需求、環(huán)境等模塊的綜合集成模型。目前中國的應(yīng)用及研究相對較少，由于模型涉及的技術(shù)和領(lǐng)域非常廣泛，所以必須有足夠的、專業(yè)的研究人員和時間做保證，才能完

2、成這項復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)工程。代表性的混合能源模型是美國能源部(DOE)開發(fā)的NEMS模型和奧地利國際應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)分析研究所(the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis，IIASA)與世界能源委員會(the World Energy Council，WEC)合作開發(fā)的IIASA-WEC E3模型。表4 典型綜合模型的特點典型模型 開發(fā)單位 研究方法 優(yōu)點 缺點 NEMS EIA/DOE of America 線性規(guī)劃理論;非線性規(guī)劃理論;混合整數(shù)規(guī)劃方法;計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法 綜合了上述兩種模型的優(yōu)點,既充分考慮技術(shù)選擇的成本,又考慮了價格彈

3、性的作用,是對整個能源系統(tǒng)的模擬和分析;便于進(jìn)行更詳盡的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)分析;研究范圍多是全球的、區(qū)域或國家的;功能比較齊全,結(jié)構(gòu)比較復(fù)雜,是對現(xiàn)實能源系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行模擬和仿真的復(fù)雜巨系統(tǒng) 數(shù)據(jù)獲取比較困難 IIASA-WEC E3 IIASA and WEC PRIMES JOULE/EU POLES MIDAS 1NEMS最具代表性的混合能源模型是NEMS (National Energy Modeling Systems)模型，由美國EIA/DOE于1993年開發(fā)的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域模型。NEMS綜合考慮了宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、財政因素、世界能源市場、資源可獲得性和成本、行為和技術(shù)選擇標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、能源技術(shù)的成本和運行特性以及

4、人口統(tǒng)計資料，反應(yīng)了能源的生產(chǎn)、進(jìn)口、轉(zhuǎn)化、消費以及價格的情況。但從文獻(xiàn)上看，用“NEMS模型”當(dāng)做關(guān)鍵詞在期刊網(wǎng)上檢索，沒有一篇文獻(xiàn) 。（1）NEMS的功能EIA把NEMS用來模擬在美國能源政策和能源市場上不同假設(shè)下的能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境以及安全之間的影響。 NEMS通過制定能源產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)、轉(zhuǎn)換、消費的經(jīng)濟(jì)決策，清晰地描述了美國國內(nèi)能源市場，同時NEMS還描述了能源技術(shù)。利用NEMS模擬的能源情況，例如2009年度能源展望（Annual Energy Outlook 2009，AEO2009）預(yù)測到2030年的能源情況。NEMS能用于檢驗新的能源項目和政策的影響。NEMS提供了一套細(xì)致地描述美國

5、能源系統(tǒng)里復(fù)雜的相互作用的框架，并且它對各種可替代的假設(shè)和政策以及政策積極性進(jìn)行了回應(yīng)。 NEMS也用于為政府提供一系列指定情景下的特殊分析。如：Impacts of a 25-Percent Renewable Electricity Standard as Proposed in the American Clean Energy and Security Act requested by Senator Markey。NEMS可分析與能源生產(chǎn)、使用有關(guān)的法律法規(guī)（現(xiàn)行的、已提議的）能源生產(chǎn)、轉(zhuǎn)換、消費技術(shù)的改進(jìn)所帶來的潛在影響溫室氣體控制的影響和成本；使用可再生能源的影響；提高能源使用效

6、率的潛力；使用可選擇的燃料的法規(guī)的影響。（2）NEMS模型結(jié)構(gòu)和主要模塊NEMS的整體數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)構(gòu)對各模塊之間的信息流進(jìn)行協(xié)調(diào)和溝通，數(shù)據(jù)通過常用的界面?zhèn)魅胝夏K。整體數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)構(gòu)包括：能源市場價格和消費、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量、能源產(chǎn)品、交通、轉(zhuǎn)換信息和模型控制變量、參數(shù)、假設(shè)。 NEMS從國際能源市場、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源轉(zhuǎn)換、供給、需求等方面建立了13個模塊，每個模塊之間緊密聯(lián)系。（3）模型主要假設(shè)NEMS的模塊使用許多假設(shè)和數(shù)據(jù)來描述未來美國能源的生產(chǎn)、轉(zhuǎn)換、消費。影響能源市場的主要因素有兩個：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、原油價格The AEO2009 使用了五種不同的情景進(jìn)行分析：基準(zhǔn)情景，高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，高原油價

7、格，低原油價格。除了這五種主要情景，AEO2009還有其他34種假設(shè)（用于探測NEMS個別模塊的主要假設(shè)改變帶來的影響），這些情景中大多是由于新技術(shù)或者技術(shù)改進(jìn)造成的。2IIASA-WEC E3模型IIASA-WEC E3(the IIASA-WEC Energy Economic Environment)模型是IIASA和WEC于20世紀(jì)90年代開發(fā)的動態(tài)線性規(guī)劃的能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境模型，由SCENARIO GENERATOR Model、RAINS Model、MESSAGE Model、MACROModel、BLS Model、MAGICC Model、GCMModel和Soft-Link

8、ing and Scenario Definitionand Evaluation組成。它是以連續(xù)的、相互獨立的情景分析方式，研究受不確定性因素影響的未來社會能源技術(shù)的一系列可能的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r。IIASA-WEC E3模型把世界劃分為11個地區(qū)，分3種情景(高速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和技術(shù)進(jìn)步、中速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和技術(shù)進(jìn)步、社會生態(tài)學(xué)的情景)研究了未來社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)和能源技術(shù)的發(fā)展。每個實施情景的內(nèi)在的影響因素為人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長、能源強度、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、主要能源的資源基礎(chǔ)，情景間的區(qū)別主要體現(xiàn)在能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境的相互關(guān)系上，所有情景都是基于相同的人口假設(shè)。3PRIMES模型PRIMES（Price Inducing Mode

9、l of the Energy System）模型是歐盟TEEM計劃的JOULE-研究組從1993發(fā)的部分均衡模型。主要側(cè)重于對影響能源供求改革的市場相關(guān)機制和關(guān)于技術(shù)在市場中滲透背景的研究。對能源供應(yīng)的研究模型采用由底向上的研究方法，對能源需求的研究采用由頂向下的方法，模型也適用于能源政策分析，以及能源政策和技術(shù)評價關(guān)系的研究。研究組首先對歐共體現(xiàn)行的能源相關(guān)政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度、經(jīng)濟(jì)膨脹比率、人口增長以及對石油、天然氣和煤炭的價格作了一系列假設(shè)。4POLESPOLES(Prospective Outlook on Long-term EnergySystems)模型是歐盟TEEM計劃的JOU

10、LE研究組20世紀(jì)90年代研究開發(fā)的基于能源供求的動態(tài)優(yōu)化模型，是由多個相互連接的子模塊構(gòu)成的多層嵌套的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)模型。它的一個主要特點是對油氣資源的發(fā)現(xiàn)和發(fā)展過程的仿真。廣義上來說，油氣的供需和價格受國際油氣總儲量、鉆井能力和剩余儲量，以及地區(qū)和世界的R/P比率的影響。模型描述了全球不同地區(qū)能源需求、供應(yīng)和價格的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。Patrick Criqui等應(yīng)用POLES模型評價了在承擔(dān)京都議定書減排義務(wù)的國家和發(fā)展中國家實行碳排放權(quán)交易政策的經(jīng)濟(jì)潛力。Patrick Criqui等應(yīng)用POLES-ASPEN模型研究了歐盟實行碳排放權(quán)交易制度面臨的政策選擇問題。5MIDAS模型MIDAS (Mult

11、inational Integrated Demand and Supply)模型是歐盟JOULE研究組20世紀(jì)80年代末90年代初開發(fā)的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)模型。它主要用來研究長期的能源規(guī)劃和預(yù)測，通過綜合的過程分析和計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方程實現(xiàn)了能源系統(tǒng)的動態(tài)仿真。模型采用自頂向下的建模方法描述能源需求，采用自底向上的方法描述能源供應(yīng)，MIDAS包括了整個能源系統(tǒng)和安全，模型的輸出結(jié)果是一系列時間序列的能源平衡表，以及各部門的能源價格、成本和污染物排放量。6IPAC-E模型IPAC-E模型的目標(biāo)是對中國在全球環(huán)境下，未來各種長期溫室氣體排放趨勢下可能采取的政策措施進(jìn)行評價。基于這個目標(biāo)，模型被開發(fā)形成一個全球溫

12、室氣體排放模型。模型將全世界劃分為九個主要區(qū)域：美國、西歐和加拿大，其他OECD國家、東歐地區(qū)、中國、中東國家、其他亞洲國家、非洲和南美洲。模型分析的時間區(qū)間從1990年到2100年共110年，2050年以前每五年一個時間段，2050年以后，每25年為一個時間段。IPAC-E全球溫室氣體排放情景分析模型主要由三個子模型組成，它們分別是社會經(jīng)濟(jì)能源子模型、技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)能源子模型和農(nóng)業(yè)與土地利用子模型。社會經(jīng)濟(jì)能源子模型是在全球長期能源排放模型（Edmonse-Rilly-Barns模型，以下簡稱ERB）的基礎(chǔ)上開發(fā)而成的。ERB模型由美國橡樹嶺國家實驗室于1982年開發(fā)完成，是評估全球長期CO2排放

13、的一個引人注目的工具并被許多研究小組引用。它是一個自頂向下型的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)能源排放模型。技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)能源子模型則是采用了AIM終端能源排放模型的框架。AIM終端能源排放模型是一個依據(jù)能源利用技術(shù)的市場參與成本來預(yù)測未來能源需求與溫室氣體排放的自底向上型模型。它是由日本國立環(huán)境研究所與日本京都大學(xué)合作開發(fā)，后由亞太地區(qū)中國、印度、韓國、日本等幾個國家的AIM模型項目組共同構(gòu)造而成的。土地利用子模型是以美國太平洋西北國家實驗室（PNNL）開發(fā)的Agriculture-Land-Use（AGLU）模型為原形構(gòu)造而成的。AGLU原為PNNL開發(fā)的最新版本的全球氣候變化綜合評價微型模型MiniCAM中的一個子模

14、型。主要用于對土地利用所引發(fā)的溫室氣體的排放和商業(yè)生物質(zhì)能的供應(yīng)能力進(jìn)行計算。在MiniCAM中，AGLU已經(jīng)與ERB模型相連接，這為我們將其進(jìn)行改造提供了便利條件。翻譯：Five, the hybrid Model (Energy Mixed Model)Description: for energy system (from energy extraction, conversion, transportation, market to eventually energy demand), through the simulation system simulation to predic

15、t departments energy supply ability, energy prices, demand and macroeconomic parameters, thus for the state formulates energy strategy and decision provides information support, therefore includes both the top-down macro economic model, and includes the bottom up energy supply, demand model.This kin

16、d of model of the whole energy, economy and environment of the system simulation and simulation, it is a complex giant system. Research scope is more global, regional or national, the structure also is more including economic, supply, transformation, demand, environment and other modules integrated

17、model. The present China's applications and research opposite less, the model involving technology and field is very wide, so there must be sufficient, professional researchers and time doing guarantee, able to finish the complex system engineering.Typical hybrid model is the us department of En

18、ergy (DOE) development of NEMS model and Austria International application system Analysis Institute (the International Institute for Applied by telephone underorder, IIASA) and World Energy Council (the World Energy Council, WEC) jointly developed IIASA - WEC E3 model.Table 4 typical

19、characteristics of comprehensive modelTypical model development units research methods advantages disadvantagesNEMS EIA/DOE ebookOn behalf of linear planning theory, Nonlinear programming theory; Mixed integer programming method, Econometric method combined the above two models, which fully consider

20、 the advantages of technology choice of cost and considering the price elasticity of the function, is on the whole energy of the system simulation and analysis; For more details of the energy economic analysis, Research scope is more global, regional or national; Functional comparison is complete, t

21、he structure is complicated, is to the real energy system is simulated and simulation of complex giant system data acquisition more difficultIIASA - WEC E3 IIASA and WECPRIMES JOULE/EUPOLES"MIDAS"NEMS. 1.The most representative hybrid model is NEMS (National) model, the Modeling by telepho

22、ne underEnergy by American EIA/DOE in 1993, the development of Energy economy zone model. NEMS comprehensive consideration of the macro economic and financial factors, world energy markets, resource availability and cost, behavior and technology selection criteria, energy technology co

23、st and operation characteristics and population statistics, the reaction of energy production, import, transformation, consumption and price. But from the literature on look, with "NEMS model" as a key words in journals online retrieval, without a literature.(1) NEMS functionNEMS used to s

24、imulate the EIA in the U.S. energy policy and energy markets different assumptions about energy, economy, environment and safety between influence. NEMS by formulating energy production, conversion, consumption of economic decision-making, clearly described America domestic energy market and NEMS al

25、so describes the energy technology.NEMS - using simulated Energy situation such as 2009 Annual Energy Outlook (discuss Energy Outlook 2009, AEO2009) predicts the Energy.- NEMS for testing new energy projects and policy influence. NEMS provides a set of meticulous description of the U.S. energy syste

26、m framework of the complex interaction, and it to all sorts of alternative hypothesis and the policy and the policy enthusiasm response.NEMS is also used for the government - provides a series of special situations designated analysis. Such as: a 25 Percent of starvation Renewable Electricity Standa

27、rd as the Proposed in Clean Energy and Security Act as requested by Senator Markey.- NEMS can be analyzed and energy production, using relevant laws and regulations (current, has proposed)- energy production, conversion, consumption technology improvement brings the potential influence- greenhouse g

28、as control effects and cost,- use of renewable energy influence;- improving energy efficiency potential,- use alternative fuel regulations influence.(2) NEMS model structure and main modulesNEMS the whole data structure of each module in the information flows between coordinate and communication, da

29、ta through the commonly used interface afferent integration module. The whole data structure including: energy market price and consumption, macro economic variables, energy products, transportation, converting information and model control variables and parameters, hypothesis.NEMS from the internat

30、ional energy market and macroeconomic, energy conversion, supply, demand etc established 13 module, each module between closely.3) model main assumptionsNEMS of module USES many assumptions and data to describe the future U.S. energy production, transform and consumption. Impact energy markets with

31、two major factors: economic growth, crude oil pricesThe AEO2009 use five different scenarios analysis: benchmarking scene, high growth rate, low economic growth, high oil prices, low price of crude oil. In addition to the five key scene, AEO2009 other 34 hypothesis (used to detect the main assumptio

32、ns NEMS individual module effects of the changes in), these situations are mostly due to new technology or technical improvement.2. IIASA - WEC E3 modelIIASA - WEC E3 (the IIASA - one WEC Energy to) Model is IIASA and WEC in the early 1990s, the dynamic development of linear programming Model of Ene

33、rgy, economy and Environment, the SCENARIO Model, Model, does RAINS macro Model, Model, MAGICC BLS MACROModel, Model, GCMModel and Soft - Linking and SCENARIO Definitionand Evaluation composition. It is continuous, independent scene analysis method to study by uncertainty factors affect the future s

34、ocial energy technology, a series of possible development situation. IIASA - the world WEC E3 model is divided into 11 regional, three scenarios (high economic growth and technical progress, medium-speed economic growth and technical progress, social ecology scene) studies the future social, economi

35、c and energy technology development. Each implementation situation of the inner factors for demographic and economic growth, energy intensity, technological progress, the main source of energy resources foundation, scene differences are mainly embodied in energy, economic and environmental interrela

36、tionship, all the scene is based on the same population hypothesis.3. PRIMES modelPRIMES (Price Model of the Inducing Energy System) Model is the eu TEEM plan team from 1993 - JOULE partial equilibrium Model of hair. Mainly focus on energy supply and demand reform affecting the market mechanism and

37、related about technology in market penetration background research. On energy supply research model adopted by bottom up research methods, the research on energy demand by top-down method, the model is also applicable to the energy policy analysis, and energy policy and technology evaluation researc

38、h of the relationship. Team first to the European current energy policies, economic growth speed, and economic expansion ratio, population growth, for oil, gas and coal price for a series of hypothesis.4. POLESPOLES (Prospective Outlook on it - term EnergySystems) model is the eu TEEM plan in 1990s

39、JOULE team of research and development based on the energy supply and demand of dynamic optimization model, is composed of multiple interconnected son module composition of multi-layer nested energy economic model.It is one of the main features of oil and gas resources, the discovery and development

40、 process simulation. Broadly speaking, oil and gas in supply and demand and price by international oil and gas reserves total, drilling ability and surplus reserves, and regional and world R/P ratio effects. Model describes the global energy demand different regions, supply and price of coordinated

41、development.And Criqui applications such as POLES model evaluation in bear such emissions that the Kyoto protocol seeks obligation countries and developing the country executes carbon emissions trading policy economic potential. And Criqui applications such as POLES - ASPEN model to study the eu exe

42、cutes carbon emissions trading system facing the policy choice problem.5. "MIDAS" model"MIDAS" (done) named rest and Multinational group JOULE model is the eu 20th century the late 1980s and early '90s development of energy economic model. It is mainly used to research the lo

43、ng-term energy planning and forecasting, through integrated process analysis and econometrics equation realized the energy system dynamic simulation. Model using the top-down modeling methods describe energy demand, adopting the bottom up method descriptions energy supply, "MIDAS" includes

44、 the whole energy systems and safety, the output of your model results is a series of time sequence energy balance sheet, and the department of energy price, cost and pollutants.6. IPAC - E modelIPAC - E model for China's goal is in the global environment, various long-term future greenhouse gas

45、 emissions under the trend likely policy measures are evaluated. Based on this goal, the model has been developed a global greenhouse gas emissions model. Model will the world into nine main area: the United States, Western Europe and Canada, other OECD countries, eastern Europe, China, Middle East countries and other Asian countries, Africa and South America. Model analysis of