能源轉(zhuǎn)型概覽-Energy Transition Factbook Prepared for the 14th Clean Energy Ministerial

EnergyTransition

Factbook

Preparedforthe14thCleanEnergyMinisterial

Coverletter

ItismypleasuretosharewithyoutheEnergyTransitionFactbook,whichillustratesthecriticalprogresstheworldismakingintransitioningtonet-zeroemissions–andidentifieskeytrendsinthedevelopmentanddeploymentofcleanenergy,includingwindpower,photovoltaics,electricvehicles,andtechnologiesinearlierstagesofdevelopment,suchashydrogenandsustainableaviationfuel.

Therehavebeenencouragingdevelopmentssincelastyear’sfactbook.Globalcleanenergyinvestmenttopped$1.1trillionin2022.Globalelectricvehiclesalesexceeded10millionin2022forthefirsttime,andmorethanonein10carssoldtodayarefullyelectricorhybrid.TheUSbeganimplementingtheInflationReductionAct,thesinglelargestfinancialcommitmentinitshistorytoaddressclimatechange,whichhashelpedtoaccelerateinvestmentinnewcleanenergyandEVmanufacturing.

ThisprogresshasalsobeenshapedbyenergysecurityconcernsarisingfromRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,sincecleanenergycanallownationstobecomemoreenergyself-sufficient,whilealsodrivingeconomicgrowthandimprovingpublichealthbyreducingairpollution.

Muchworkremains,ofcourse.Wealthynationsmustdomoretosupportdevelopingnationsinexpandingaccesstoclean,affordableenergy.Insomenations,marketbarriersremainprevalent,makingitmoredifficultforbusinessesandconsumerstomovetocleanerfuels.Butmomentumisbuildingtowardafuturepoweredbycleanenergy.

Thisfactbook,usingresearchfromBloombergNEFandothersources,providespublicandprivatesectorleadersthecriticalinformationtheyneedtoacceleratethetransitiontocleanenergy,alongwithallthehealthandeconomicbenefitsitwillbring.

MichaelR.Bloomberg

Founder,BloombergL.P.

Founder,BloombergPhilanthropies

UNSecretary-General’sSpecialEnvoyforClimateAmbitionandSolutions

1

2

Introduction:Energytransitionin20223

Powersector:Renewables,integration,storage,grids19

Transport:Electrification,heavy-dutytransport33

Industry:Decarbonizinghard-to-abatesectors,hydrogen44

Finance:Assetinvestment,greenbonds,ESG53

EnergytransitioninvestmentinCEM

memberssurgedtoover$1trillionin2022

CEMmembers’annualenergytransitioninvestment

Indonesia

Energytransitioninvestment($billion),historicMexico

1200UnitedArabEmirates

NewZealand

760

800

600

463

420

400

127

1,017

1000

550141

546

98

191

80

174

100

200

321

183

0

20182019202020212022

Russia

Chile

Other

Portugal

Denmark

Finland

Poland

OtherEU

Norway

Sweden

Australia

Netherlands

Canada

Brazil

Italy

Spain

India

SouthKoreaJapan

UK

France

Germany

US

MainlandChina

Betweenthem,CleanEnergyMinisterialmembers,includingtheEuropeanUnion,attracted$1trillionininvestmentforenergytransitiontechnologiesin2022–anewrecord.

Thismarkeda34%jumpfromthepreviousrecordof$760billion,reachedin2021,andincludedmajorinvestmentinrenewables,powerstorageandelectricvehicles.Collectively,themembersagainaccountfor91%ofallenergytransitioninvestmentworldwide.

AmongindividualCEMmembers,

mainlandChinacontinuestoattractthemostinvestment,followedbytheUSandGermany.

InvestmentinmainlandChinaspiked70%year-on-yearto$546billion.Investmentalsojumped11%intheUS(toreach$141billion)and9%inGermany(to$55billion).

Source:BloombergNEF.Note:‘OtherEU’includesEuropeanCommissionmembersthatdonotholdindividualCEMmembershipstatus.

3

1000

760

800

448

550

600

463

289

420

400

157

118

116

442

200

Ninein10dollarsinvestedwentto

renewablesorelectrifiedtransport

CEMmembers’annualenergytransitioninvestment

Energytransitioninvestment($bn)

1200

Hydrogen

CCS

EnergystorageSustainablematerialsNuclear

ElectrifiedheatElectrifiedtransportRenewableenergy

1,017

314

368

244

280

0

Investmentinelectrifiedtransportin2022jumpedmorethan54%fromtheyearprior,to$448billion.Transportandrenewableswerenearly90%of2022investment.

SurginginvestmentinEVsupplychainsandgrowingpurchasesofEVsfromconsumersallowedtheelectrifiedtransportsegmentsurge.Investmentjumpedby$158billionandglobalEVsalestotaledover10million.Renewableswasthesecondlargestsectorforinvestmentin2022,attracting$442billion–20%higherthantheyearprior.Expandeddeploymentofsolarcapacityremainedthekeydriverofgrowth.

Othersegmentsremaincomparativelysmallbutaregrowingswiftly.

Electrifiedheat,nuclear,energystorage,sustainablematerials,CCS,andhydrogeninvestmentcontinuedtorepresentjustoveratenthoftotalinvestment,withcertainsegmentsgrowingatparticularlyrapidclips.Hydrogenattracted$370million,upfromanestimated$100millionin2021.Energystorageinvestmentjumpedbynearlyhalf,to$15billion.

20182019202020212022

Source:BloombergNEF,Marklines.Note:CCSreferstocarboncaptureandstorage.Energytransitioninvestmentreferstomoneyspenttodeploycleantechnologiessuchascleanenergy,electricvehicles,heatpumps,hydrogenandcarboncapture.Renewableenergyreferstowind(on-andoffshore),solar(large-andsmall-scale),biofuels,biomassandwaste,marine,geothermalandsmallhydro.

4

Renewableenergynowemploys

12.7millionpeoplearoundtheworld

Globalrenewableenergyemploymentbytechnology

Millionjobs

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

0.771.37

2.37

0.821.25

2.18

0.821.17

1.96

0.81.16

2.05

0.811.15

1.99

3.44

3.53

3.58

3.18

3.05

4.29

3.98

3.75

3.68

3.37

0.43

Others

Solarheating/coolingWindenergyHydropowerBioenergy

Solarphotovoltaic

Therenewableenergysectordirectlyandindirectlyemployed12.7millionpeoplein2021(thelastyearforwhichthereiscompletedata).

Theenergytransition’sworldwidegrowthhasresultedinsubstantialjobcreation.Theriseinemploymenthaslargelybeenconcentratedonthesolarphotovoltaic(PV),bioenergyandhydropowersub-sectors,whichbetweenthemrepresentnearly80%ofalljobscreated.Windpowerrepresentedanother11%ofglobalrenewableemploymentin2021.

Renewableenergyjobcreationhassofar

beenhighlyconcentratedinrelativelyfew

economies.

MainlandChinaaccountedfornearly40%ofglobal

renewablesemployment,followedbytheEuropean

Unionat10%.

20172018201920202021

Source:IRENARenewableEnergyandJobsAnnualReview2022.Notes:Bioenergyincludesliquidbiofuels,solidbiomassandbiogas.Hydropowerincludesdirectjobsonly.‘Others’includesgeothermalenergy,concentratedsolarpower,heatpumps(ground-based),municipalandindustrialwaste,andoceanenergy.

5

Electricityandtransportsector

emissionsmaybereadytopeak

GreenhousegasemissionsbysectorandprojectedpeakyearunderBloombergNEF’slong-termNetZeroScenario

MtCO2

16,000

2022

14,000

12,000

10,000

2024

8,000

2014

6,000

2022

4,000

2,000

0

200020102020203020402050

Other

PowerIndustryTransportBuildings

BloombergNEFhasmodeledmultiplescenariosforhowtheenergytransitionmayunfoldoverthenextthreedecades.UndertheNetZeroScenario(NZS),globalemissionsstarttofallin2024andreachnetzeroin2050,consistentwiththeParisAgreementgoaloflimitingglobalwarmingto2Cabovepre-industriallevels.

Inthisscenario,thepowersectorleadstheway,asdeploymentofrenewables,nuclear,carboncaptureandstorage(CCS)andzero-carbonhydrogenallrampupby2030.Emissionsfromthetransportsectorfollowamoregradualdownwardpath,withemissionsfromcars,trucks,buses,planesandotherspeakingin

2024.Emissionsfrombuildingswillhavealreadypeakedin2022undertheNZS,buttheirdeclinetozerowillbeslow.Thesetrendshighlighttheneedtoinvestintechnologiestodaytoaddressthe‘hard-to-abate’sectorstomorrow.

Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Labelsshowyearofpeakemissions.‘Other’includesagriculture,forestry,fishing,theenergyindustry’sownenergyconsumption,andotherfinalenergyconsumptionthatisnotfurtherspecified.MtCO2standsformillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide.

6

9%

17%

27%Jan

2023

48%

Legislated

GovernmentpositionbutnotlegislatedInlegislativeprocess

Underdiscussion

Notarget

Over90%ofCO2emissionsnowoccurincountrieswhere

someformofnet-zerotargetisatleastunderdiscussion

January2023

91%withanet-zerotargetatleastindiscussion

January2021

55%withanet-zerotargetatleast

indiscussion

6%

Jan

2021

10%

9%

45%

29%

Nationalgovernments’commitmentsto

reduceCO2emissionshaveincreased

sharplyinthelasttwoyears.

Around91%oftheworld’spopulationnowlivesinacountrywithsomeformofcommitmenttoachievenet-zeroemissions.

Onesixthoftheworld’sgreenhousegasemissionsnowtakeplaceincountrieswithlegislatednet-zerocommitmentsonthebooks.

Another48%ofemissionsoccurwherenational

governmentstargets.

havestatedbutnotlegislatednet-zero

Commitments,asmeasuredingreenhousegasemissionscovered,havenearlytripledintwoandahalfyears.

InJanuary2020,34%ofglobalemissionswerefromnationseithercontemplatingorenforcingnet-zerotargets.Yetonly2%wereaccountedforbycountrieswithlegallysettargets.Thislattershareroseto6%bythestartof2021andisnow17%.

Source:BloombergNEF.Note:‘Underdiscussion’stageoccurswhengovernmentshavebegunconcreteofficialdiscussionstoimplementatarget.

7

CEMmembers’net-zeropledges

encompass76%ofglobalemissions

EmissionsfromCEMmemberscoveredbynet-zerotargets

MtCO2

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

100%

34,909

8,367

24%

20,386

58%

18%

6,156

Underdiscussion

Governmentposition

Legislated

Betweenthem,themembersoftheClean

EnergyMinisterialhavemadelong-term

pledgestoreachnet-zeroemissionsthat

cover76%ofglobalemissions,or34,909

millionmetrictonsofCO2.

AlmostonefifthofCEMmembershavelegislatednet-zerotargets,while58%havestatedagovernmentalpledgeandanother24%haveatargetunderdiscussion.

Source:BloombergNEFandWRICAIT.Note:Pledgesasofyear-end2022.Uses2019dataasbaselineemissions.MtCO2standsformillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide.

8

Theglobalenergycrisishaselevated

powerprices

Averageelectricitypricesbyregion

$permegawatt-hour

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

Europe

CEMmembers

LatinAmericaand

Caribbean

Africa

Global

Americas

Asia-Pacific

MiddleEast

Globalaverageelectricitytariffsrose7%from2020to2021.

AstheCOVID-19receded,globalpowerproductionjumped5.6%in2021,ledbyAsia.Powergenerationspikedto27,300terawatt-hours(TWh)from25,800TWhtosetanewhighfollowingthreeyearsofstableelectricitydemand.Undersupplyconnectedtotheriseindemandledtoageneralriseinpowertariffs.

TheaveragetariffpaidinCEMmemberswasnearlydoubletheglobalaverage.

ThislargelyreflectedthesharpspikeinpowerpricesinEurope.Overall,tariffsjumped13%year-on-yearinCEMmembersin2021.

60

2018201920202021

Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Considersaverageresidential,commercial,industrialandwholesaleelectricityrates.‘CEMmembers’considersratesfromallCEMstatuscountriesandEuropeanCommissionmembers.

9

Renewablesarethecheapestpower

sourcewheretwo-thirdsoftheworldlives

Cheapestsourceofnewbulkgeneration($/megawatt-hour,levelized)bymarket,1H2023

Onshorewind

Offshorewind

FixedaxisPV

TrackingPV

Gas–CCGT

Coal

Today,eitherwindorutility-scalesolaristhecheapestsourceofnewbulkelectricitygenerationineconomiesaccountingfor82%ofpowersupplyand85%ofglobalGDP.

IndonesiaandSouthKoreaaretheonlyG-20economieswhererenewablesarenotthecheapestformofgeneration.

RenewableprojectsinmainlandChinadeliverthelowestcostsseenintheworld.

Themarketishometothecheapestfixed-axissolar($39/MWh),onshorewind($34/MWh)andoffshorewind($66/MWh),thankstoitsstrongmanufacturingcapabilities.

Solarandwindareexpectedtobecomethecheapesttechnologiesby2030.

WeexpectsolarandwindtobecomethecheapestpowertechnologiesinthevastmajorityofG-20economiesnolaterthan2030thankstofallingcapexandimprovingefficiencyofsolarandwind.

Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Themapshowsthetechnologywiththelowestlevelizedcostofelectricity(orauctionbidforrecentdelivery)fornew-buildplantsineachmarketwhereBNEFhasdata.LCOEsexcludesubsidies,taxcreditsandgridconnectioncosts,andincludeacarbonpricewhereapplicable.*WedonotestimateLCOEsforRussiaorSaudiArabia.WeassumethatCCGTsarethecheapestnewtechnologytobuildinRussiagivenlowfuel costsandrelativeinexperiencebuildingrenewables.

10

104

139

101

409326

91

177

116

56

118

585

96

109

89

237

261

226

297

137

126

158

143

-256-273

-124-119

-

118

61

105

198

78

137

205270

148750

271316201170

Coal-firedpowergenerationhasbouncedback

asCovid-19hasreceded

Globalyear-on-yeargenerationchangebytechnology

TWh

1,500

1,300

1,100

900

700

500

300

100

-100

-300

-500

2012201320142015201620172018

SolarWindOthernon-fossil

OilanddieselNuclearNaturalgas

HydroGeothermalCoal

Source:BloombergNEFPowerTransitionTrendsreport

201920202021

Other-fossil

Marine

Biomassandwaste

Globalcoal-firedpowergenerationsurged750terawatt-hoursin2021fromtheyearpriorastheglobaleconomybegantorecoverfromtheeffectsoftheCovid-19pandemic.

Thereboundcameaftertwoyearsofdecline,inpartduetoweakeroverallelectricitydemand.InmainlandChina,thenetchangeincoal-firedgenerationwasup395terrawatt-hours(TWh).Butitwashardlyalone,asdemandforcoal-firedpoweralsoincreasedinIndia(up153TWh)andtheUS(up21.4TWh).

Windandsolarpostedtheirbiggestever

single-yeargrowthincontributiontonew

generation.

Outputfromthetwotechnologiesjumped404TWhyear-on-year.Windcontributedanadditional261TWhtoreach1,864TWh,or6.5%ofallgeneration

globally.Solar’scontributionroseby143TWh,crossingthe1,000TWhthresholdforthefirsttimetoreach3.7%ofglobalgeneration.

11

Recorddemandandfossil-fuelburnpropelled

power-sectorCO2emissionstoanall-timehigh

Globalfossilfuelpowergenerationvs.globalemissions

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

TWh

0

20122014201620182020

Source:BloombergNEFPowerTransitionTrendsreport

MtCO2e

14,000

13,500

13,000

12,500

12,000

11,500

OilanddieselNaturalgasCoal

Totalemissions

Astheglobaleconomyrecoveredfromthepandemicin2021,CO2emissionsfromthepowersectorjumped7%fromtheyearpriortoreachanewall-timehighof13,601millionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(MtCO2e).

Thetotalfarsurpassedthepreviouspre-pandemichighof13,305MtCO2e,setin2018,andcameafterdeclinesin2019and2020.

Thejumpwasduetorecordvolumesofgenerationfromcoalandnaturalgasin2021.

Coal-firedelectricitygenerationtotaled9,622terawatt-hours(TWh),farexceedingtheprevioushighof9,401TWhsetin2018.Naturalgascombustionalsoreachedarecordof6,2423TWhin2021,surpassingthepreviouspeakof6,131TWhsetin2019.Evenoilcombustionforelectricitygenerationincreasedto646TWhin2021,althoughitremainsfarbelowtherecentpeakof924TWhin2012.

12

Energysecurityconcernsarespeeding

residentialheatpumpadoption

Top10countriesbyheatpumpshareoftotalheating

0%

ShareofHeatPumpsintheresidentialheatingmix

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

201020152020

NorwayFinlandFranceDenmarkAustriaGermanyLithuaniaPolandNetherlandsHungary

Asenergyconcernscontinuetogrow,particularlyinwesternEurope,interestinfindingwaystogenerateheatusingelectricityhassurged.

BNEFtracked$53billioninvestedinelectrifiedheatin2021,up10.5%fromtheyearprior.AcrossEurope,theUSandelsewhere,residentialheatpumpsaleshit6.4millionunits.Thiswasalmost50%higherthanin2017.

Heatpumpuptakeusuallyleadstoreducedenergyconsumptionasaheatpumpproducestwotothreetimesmoreheatthantraditionalelectricheatersusingthesameamountofelectricity.

Inverycoldcountries,suchasCanada,themoreexpensiveground-sourceheatpumpsworkbetterbuthaveyettogainwidepopularity.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)projectsinoneofitsscenariosthat55%ofallheatingcouldcomefromheatpumpsin2050.

Source:BloombergNEF,

IEA

.Note:Shareiscalculatedonthe%offinalenergyconsumptionfortotalheating.Includesresidentialheatingonly.

13

Batterydeploymentsmorethantripled

inCEMmembersin2022

Annualnewlycommissionedutility-scalebatterystoragecapacityinCEMmembers

StoragePowerOutput(GW)byCommisioningDate

35

31.81

30

25

20

15

10

5

-

3.4

2.2

10.4

9.93

2.1

15.8

4.2

2.12

2.9

3.70

1.2

1.6

2.56

OtherCEM

UK

US

MainlandChina

Over31gigawattsofnewbatterystoragecapacitywasaddedtogridsinCleanEnergyMinisterialmembersin2022,upfrom9.7gigawattsaddedin2022.

Therapidgrowthhighlightstheimportanceofstorageforglobalgrids,particularlyasrenewableenergypenetrationratesrise.

MainlandChinaaccountedforjustoverhalfoftheoverallmarket.

InstallationsinmainlandChinamorethanquintupledfromtheyearprior,to15.8gigawatts.

TheUS,whichwastheworld’slargestdemandmarketin2021,droppedtosecondplacein2022.

Nonetheless,theUSmarketmorethandoubledyear-on-yearas10.4gigawattswereinstalled.TheUKmarketalsotripledinsize,to2.2gigawatts,in2022.

20182019202020212022

Source:BloombergNEF.Note:‘OtherCEM’includesotherCEMmembersandtheEuropeanUnion.GWstandsforgigawatts.

14

Batteriesarebeingdeployedina

growinglistofeconomies

Annualnewlycommissionedutility-scalebattery

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

1377

473

221

storagecapacityinotherCEMmembers

StoragePowerOutput(MW)bycommissioningdate

4000

3,407

3500

307

371

2,129

675

158

763

900

880

687

843

168

289

400

20182019202020212022

NewZealand

Norway

Indonesia

Russia

UnitedArabEmirates

Poland

Chile

Finland

Portugal

Spain

Japan

Sweden

Brazil

Italy

Netherlands

Canada

Mexico

SouthKorea

France

India

Germany

SouthAfrica

Australia

OtherEU

Atleast22CleanEnergyMinisterialmembersinstalledatleast1megawattofpower-storagecapacityin2022,upfrom20in2021.

Agrowingnumberofcountriesarefindinguseforlarge-scalebatteriesonthegrid.

Onacapacitybasis,mainlandChina,theUSandtheUKaccountedfor89%ofallstorageinstalledin2022.

However,totalcapacityinstalledinotherCEMmembersgrewbymorethanhalf,to3,407megawatts,in2022.Australia(whichinstalled763megawatts),SouthAfrica(675MW),Germany(371MW)andIndia(307MW)werethelargestofthesemarkets.Keydriversofgrowthhaveincludedtheneedforgreatergridflexibilityasvariablerenewablegenerationgrows,andnewpolicysupports.

Source:BloombergNEF.Note:ExcludesmainlandChina,theUKandtheUS.MWstandsformegawatts.

15

Approximatelyoneinsixcarssold

todaycanplugintoawall

GlobalandCEMmembers’electricvehiclesalesasashareoftotalcarsales

20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%

3%

11%

17%

15%

11%

5%

3%4%

20182019202020212022

CEMmembers(estimated)

EV

BEV

PHEV

Approximately17%ofautomobilessoldin

2022couldplugintothepowergrid.

Oneinnine(11%)werepurebattery-electricvehicles(BEVs),whileonein25(4%)wereplug-inhybridelectrics(PHEVs).Inall,10.4millionelectricvehiclesweresoldin2022,up60%comparedto2021.InmainlandChina,passengerEVsalessurged92%in2022.NorthAmericaandSouthKoreafollowed,eachmarking48%year-on-yeargrowth.InEurope,thegrowthratewas17%.

Aboutsevenin10EVssoldeachquarterarepurebatteryelectric.

Around72%ofallEVssoldin2022wereBEVs,upfrom70%in2021.ThebalancewerePHEVs.

NearlyafifthofallpassengervehiclessoldinCEMmemberswereplug-ins.

Around13%wereBEVand5%PHEV.

Source:BloombergNEF,Marklines,Jato,BloombergIntelligence.Note:CEMmemberdatadoesnotcoverallCEMmembers.'EV'encompassesbothbattery-electricvehicles(BEV)andplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEV)

16

Industryfacesspecificdecarbonization

challenges

IndustrialenergyconsumptionbytypeIndustrialenergyconsumptionbysector

Higher-temperatureLower-temperatureneeds

0.60.9

ArgentinaAustralia Brazil Canada China FranceGermany IndiaIndonesia Italy JapanMexico

EJ

3.21.9

1.2

41.8

2.48.6

2.1

1.0

3.4

1.6

5.8

2.0

1.0

2.1

1.4

0.9

Argentina

Australia

Brazil

Canada

China

France

Germany

India

Indonesia

Italy

RussiaSaudiArabiaSouthAfricaSouthKorea

TurkeyU.K.U.S.

Japan

Mexico

Russia

SaudiArabia

SouthAfrica

SouthKorea

Turkey

UK

11.6

0%20%40%60%80%100%

IronandsteelCementandlimeAluminum

US

ChemicalsMining

FoodandtobaccoPaperand

Construction

ProcessheatOther

pulpOther

Source:GlobalCCSInstitute,BloombergNEF.Note:EJisexajoules.

Industryrepresentsasubstantialshareofenergyuseandgreenhousegasemissions.

Industryaccountsforapproximately29%ofall

globalenergyuse,andaroundafifthofall

greenhousegasemissions.

Themajorityofindustrialenergy

consumptionisusedtoproduce

processheat.

Processheatistheenergyinputofthermal

manufacturingprocesses,suchassteam

reformationofmethanetoproduceammonia

orsmeltingtoproducesteel.

Countriesfacedifferentchallengesin

decarbonizingindustry.

Thesechallengesrangefromscale(mainlandChinaisbyfarthelargestindustrialenergyconsumer)toparticularheatdemand(somecountrieshavemostlyhigh-temperatureheatdemand,whichmakesithardertofindlower-orzero-carbonsubstitutes).

17

18

Introduction:Energytransition

in2020

3

Powersector:renewables,integration,storage,grids19

Transport:electr