市場下跌時,如何評估住宅房地產

1ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAppraisalofResidentialRealEstateinDecliningMarkets市場下跌時,如何評估住宅房地產主講人:MarkRattermann,MAI,SRA聯(lián)系方式Mark@E2ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSeminarLearningObjectives主要內容Recognizegeneralsourcesofmarketinformationthatmaygiveindicationsofmarkettrends.識別反映市場趨勢的市場信息Recognizeadeclineinalocalmarketwhenitoccurs.及時發(fā)現(xiàn)當?shù)厥袌龀霈F(xiàn)的下跌趨勢Measurethevaluelossesinlocalmarkets.估算市場中的價值損失Applythemeasuredrateofchangeintheanalysisofrealestateusingthecostapproach,incomecapitalizationapproach,andsalescomparisonapproach.在使用成本法,收益法,市場比較法分析房地產時,如何考慮價值的變化Illustratethetoolsnecessarytoshowyourclientstheresultsoftheresearchandanalysis(numericandgraphic).給客戶演示研究和分析結果的工具(數(shù)字和圖表)Applyvariousmethodstorecognizeandadjustformarketchange.使用不同的方法,分析和調整市場的變化Applythesetechniquesinsimulatedrealestatesituationsthroughcasestudies.案例分析Slide2Pagevii3ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide3Section1第一部分Part1. DecliningMarkets下跌的房地產市場Part2. GeneralMarketData市場數(shù)據Part3. IdentifyingtheMarket深入了解市場Part4. MeasuringtheMarket—Tools市場分析的工具Part5.CaseStudies(optional)案例4ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide4Part1.DecliningMarkets

第一節(jié):下跌的房地產市場Introducestheissues簡介Definestheterms定義Discussespossiblereasonsfordecliningmarketsandassociatedproblems.市場下跌的原因和相關問題Recognizethesignsofadecliningmarket.識別反映市場趨勢的市場信號Recognizetheproblemscreatedforrealestatebuyersandsellersbydecliningmarkets.認識買方和賣方在下跌市場中存在的問題Recognizetheimpactoffallingvalueonequityinterests.了解價值下降對自有資金收益的影響Identifytheappropriatelocationsonthecommonlyusedresidentialappraisalformstoexplainmarketconditions.通用表格式估價報告中如何說明市場市場條件5ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide5“LasttoKnow”Appraisersstudyhistoricaldatatosupportcurrentvalues.

通過研究歷史數(shù)據,研究當前的價值Weneedtorecognizeexistingtoolsandexplore

newones.

現(xiàn)有的工具和開發(fā)新的工具來分析市場變化Useacombinationoftools(oldandnew)

同時使用各種工具(新,舊)Appraisersneedtobeabletodevelop“trendanalysistools”.估價師應該有能力開發(fā)“分析市場的工具”.6ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsRecognizeeconomicproblemswhentheyoccur.

及時發(fā)現(xiàn)經濟中存在的問題Analyzetheimpactonrealestateofgeneraleconomicchanges.

分析經濟變化對房地產市場的影響Reconcilethemixedmessages.

綜合考慮各類信息Reportyouropinion.

在估價報告中說明你的觀點Slide6AnalyticalToolsHelpAppraisers

分析工具對估價師的幫助7ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsItismoredifficulttoovervalueaproperty.

很難不高估房地產的價值Theeffectivedateofvaluereflectsthemarketconditions

估價時點反映了市場條件Itisalsocommonforappraiserstobe“forgiven”whenpricesareincreasing.See1.1Example.

當價格上升時,估價師的錯誤經常被掩蓋.見下一案例

WhenaMarketIsAppreciatingRapidly

市場快速上升時8ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAnappraisererroneouslyappraisesaproperty

for￥300,000thatisworthonly￥275,000.Inthismarket,valuesareincreasingat10%

peryear.Lessthanoneyearaftertheoriginaldateofappraisal,thepropertyisnowworth￥300,000.Anypreviouscomplaintaboutovervaluingisdiminishedbyitscurrentworth.Thisappraisalmightberegardedasaproblembytheappraiser’speers,butnotbythepublic.1.1Example—AppreciationCuresaLotofIlls9ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsItisnaturaltoovervalueaproperty.

高估是正常的Anoverpricedpropertyonthemarketforalongtimemovesfurtherawayfrommarketvalueeachday.See1.2Example.

高估的市場價值每天都在減少WhenaMarketIsDeclining

市場下跌時10ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsThesubjectisinamarketwherepricesarefallingbyabout3%peryear.Thepropertywascorrectlyappraisedat￥300,000,butitwasoverpricedanddidnotsell.Theselleraggressivelyloweredthepriceby.25%eachmonth.Asaresultofthedecliningmarket,thesellerkeptevenwiththechanges.Thepropertywasneverpricedwithinthiscompetitivemarket.1.2Example—ChasingtheValueDowntheHill11ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsOptimisminadecliningmarkethasitscosts.Inadecliningmarket,anaccuratevalueopiniontodaymaynotbevalidtomorrow.1.2Example—ChasingtheValueDowntheHill12ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsIfthereisnegativeequity,sellingthepropertyandpayingoffthemortgagemaynotbeanoption.Thereisanoldrealestateaxiom,“Negativeequitybreedsforeclosure.”Theonlyoptionmaybetoholdthepropertyaslongaspossibleandthenallowaforeclosure.Decliningvaluesbringtolightmanyproblemsthatareotherwisehiddenbyappreciation.Evenifthebrokercansellthepropertyformorethanthemortgageamount,theremaynotbeapayday.See1.3Example.NegativeEquity13ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents1.3Example—NegativeEquityBreedsForeclosureThesubjectpropertyislistedforsaleat￥349,900.Thebrokerthinksitwillsellfor￥345,000inthismarket.Thebrokerfeeis6%andothercostsadd1%.Thebrokerturneddownthelistingbecausethesellersdidnothaveanymoremoney.Thebrokerdidnotthinkshecouldsellthepropertyformorethan￥345,000.14ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsInotherwords,thesellersdidnothavethemoneytoclose.1.3Example—NegativeEquityBreedsForeclosure15ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsPart2.GeneralMarketData第二節(jié):市市場數(shù)據據LearningObjectivesDefinemarketdataterms.市場數(shù)據的的定義Identifysourcesofgeneralmarketdataforappraiserstoresearchmarketconditions.市場數(shù)據的的來源Definetheweaknessesofapplyinggeneralmarketdatatoaspecificmarket.市場數(shù)據中中存在的缺缺陷Illustratehowsomemarketsfunctionwhentherearesignificantsupplyanddemandswings.分析供需變變化16ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsContractRateon30-YearFixed-RateHomeMortgages貸款的浮動動利率和固固定利率Theabove-listedinterestratesarefairlyhighintheearly1980s.Theratesgenerallydeclinein1982–1983,1986,1994,and1999–2000.1817ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsContractRateon30-YearFixed-RateHomeMortgagesAnapplicantwhoqualifiesfora￥￥1,000permonthmortgagepaymentata6%interestratecouldborrow￥166,791.61.At14.5%,thatsameapplicantcouldborrowonly￥￥81,662.26.HigherinterestratesinhibitdemandbecausebuyersdonotwanttopayhigherratesBuyersmayevenchoosetowaitforlowerrates.18ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsNationalAssociationofRealtors(NAR),nationaldatabaseofsalesandlistings19ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsMedianSalePrice-ExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(NAR)20ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsMedianSalePriceExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(000’’somitted)21ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(NAR)2022ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide22AllStateData(NAR)CityMedianSalePriceTrends24ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTrackingBuildingPermitscangiveacluetoachangeindemandinthebeginningofadownturnmarket.Ifthemarkethaschangedforawhilepermitsbottomoutandthenarenotagoodclue.25ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTrackingBuildingPermitsfromDept.ofCommerce.26ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsNewPrivatelyOwnedHousingUnitPermitsx1,00027ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsWhatKindofMarketsExist?Thefirstmarketinthisgraphisavolatileonewherelargeincreasesinpricesoccurandthenlargedeclines.28ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents“Althoughthisgeneraldataisinteresting,howcanitbeappliedtoappraisalpractice?”Whencombinedwithdatafromothermarkets,cannotbeusedtodiscernlocalmarketconditions.AppraiserscanrelyonthesedatasourcestohelpidentifyachangeinmarketconditionsthatCOULDbehappeninglocally.ThisisexcellentdataforunderwriterswhoreviewappraisalsthroughoutChina.Itispossibleforalocalmarkettobesubstantiallydifferentduetochangesinemployment,housing,orevenschoolratings.Thelocalmarketdatamaybemisleadingifthestatisticsarenotcalculatedonanongoingbasis.RelevanceofGeneralDatatoLocalAppraisers29ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsPart3.IdentifyingtheMarket深入了解市市場Identifycriteriathatbuyersusetoselectapropertytopurchase分析買方購購買物業(yè)的的原因Recognizethatanoversupplyinonemarketmaynotmeananoversupplyinanothermarketorsubmarket一個城市供供給過度另另一個城市市供給并不不一定過度度Beabletodivideamarketintosubmarketstoidentifytrendsthataffectonesegmentbutnotallofthem將市市場場細細分分,分分析析局局部部對對整整體體的的影影響響30ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsIsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?一個個市市場場的的信信息息可可以以應應用用到到另另一一個個市市場場嗎嗎Ifanappraiserseespricesfallinginonemarket,canitbeassumedtheyarefallinginallpartsofthesamegeographicarea?Inanymarket,pricescanincreaseordecreasesignificantlyifabasiceconomicfactorchanges.Isthemarketinoneprovinceorregionthesameasinotherprovincesorregions?Thereisonlyonethingcertaininthisdiscussion——thereisno““onesizefitsall””market.31ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsIsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?Arethesamemarketconditionsapplicabletoallcommunitieswithinthesameregionofaprovince?Increasingordecliningpricesresultfromshiftsinsupplyanddemandintheshortrun.Therearemanyfactorsthatwillimpactonecommunitymorethananother.32ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAremarketconditionsinacommunityapplicabletoallpriceranges?Thefactorscausinghighorlowdemanddonothavetobeapplicabletoalldemographics.Isthemarketforfour-bedroomhomesthesameasthemarketfortwo-bedroomhomes?Sincethedemographicisdifferent,themarketconditionscouldalsobemuchdifferent.IsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?33ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsMarketsandSubmarkets市場場和和市市場場細細分分Anopinionofmarketvalueviasalescomparisonisresearchbasedonwhatpriormarketparticipantshavedone.Thisrequirestheappraisertoidentifythemarketandanysubmarkets.Thepossiblecriteriausedtoidentifyandsegregateamarketreflectthecriteriabywhichbuyerschoosepropertiestoview.Anappraisercannotcountthenumberofbuyersandsellerswithoutknowingtheircriteria.34ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsExamplesofCriteriaUsedinPurchaseDecisionsSchoolsystemMunicipalgovernmentservicesParkdistrictLibrarydistrictLocationFireprotectiondistrictsPolicedistrictsLotsizeUtilitiesavailable3935ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsExamplesofCriteriaUsedinPurchaseDecisionsQualityofimprovementsAgeofimprovementsConditionofimprovementsSizeofimprovementsBasementandbasementfinishEnergyefficiencyCarparkingOtherfeatures3936ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSearchtoolscancompiledatafromasmall,localmarketarea.Someofthisdataiscompiledandgraphedforthebrokerorappraiserasshownonthefollowinggraph.Part4.MeasuringtheMarket—Tools-LocalDatabases市場分析析的工具具37ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents37LocalDatabaseInformation––pre-calculatedanalysis22LocalDatabaseInformation當?shù)財?shù)據據信息Somedatabasesallowappraiserstodownloadlargeamountsofsalesinformation.Thisdatacanbeinterpretedandpresentedbytheappraisertosupportconclusions.Therearegraphictoolsandregressiontoolsavailable.Forexample;38ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents39ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents39LocalDatabaseInformationforaspecificsubdivision.40ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents40Graphwithregression(trend)linefromlocaldatabaseinformationforaspecificsubdivision.2341ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsLocalDatabaseStatistics––CarmelIndiana4142ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTools——SupplyandDemandStudyThefirstsignofachangingmarketcanbeverifiedbytheappraiserwhiledevelopingthesupplyanddemandstudy.Measurethemonthlysalesrate,e.g.theannualnumberofsalesinthemarketdividedby12.Dividethenumberofcurrentforsale(listings)bythemonthlysalesrate.43ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAssesstheattributesofthesubject.Decidewhothetypicalbuyerisinthedesignatedmarket.Designasearchtocountthenumberofcompetingpropertiesforeachpotentialbuyer.ToUseThisTool,theAppraiserMust44ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsCountthenumberofCurrentlistingsavailablewithinthosebuyercriteriaComparablesalesthathaveclosedinthelast12monthsDividethenumberoflistingsbythemonthlyabsorptionrate.Eitheranexcessoralackofpendingsalescouldindicateachange.Pendingsalesandexpired/withdrawnlistingsdonothavetobeincluded.Thisanalysiscanbedonefor6or12months.ToUseThisTool,theAppraiserMust45ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.1Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofOversupplyThesubjectpropertyisimprovedwithatwo-storyhousebuiltin1997withafullbasementandanattachedtwo-cargarage.Theappraiser’sanalysisindicatesthehomeshouldsellforabout￥￥350,000.46ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.1Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofOversupplyThisisprobablythebesttoolavailabletoeasilyresearch,analyze,andreportanoversupplyproblem.Thedataimpliesthatthereiscurrentlya37-monthsupplyofhomesforsaleinthismarket.Appraiserswhofeeltheneedtoreporttheperimetersofthesearchshouldnotincludebedrooms,aschoolsystem,orotherattributesthatmaycausefairhousingconcerns.47ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.2Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofUndersupplyThesubjectisaone-storyhomebuiltonslabwithadetachedfour-cargarage.Itwasconstructedin1930.Theappraiserhasvaluedthehomeat￥￥550,000.48ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide48Thisexampleshowsamarketfavoringsellersthatwouldprobablycausepricestoincrease.Ifthecomparablesalesusedinanappraisalarerecent,theywouldalreadyreflecttheimpactofsuchamarket.Thequestionraisedbyboth4.1Exampleand4.2Exampleis,““Doesthisreflectthemarketforthesubjectasoftheeffectivedateofappraisal?””4.2Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofUndersupply5049ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide49Tools—UsingComparableListingsinAdditiontoSalesAnothertoolusedbymanyappraiserstoensuretheyareawareofadeclineinthemarketisincludingtwoorthreecurrentcomparablelistingsintheanalysis.Anexampleofananalysiswithcomparablelistingsappearsonthenexttwoslides.5050ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsComparables1and251ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsComparables3,4,and552ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsNoticetheoldersalesindicateahighervaluethanthemorerecentcomparable3.Listings4and5showamuchloweradjustedvalue.Inamarketwherethiskindofdatadoesnotexist,theappraiserusesthedataavailableandlooksfortrendsafteradjustmentsaremade.Insomedownturnmarkets,thenumberoflistingsisplentiful,butthenumberofrecentcomparablesalesislimited.Tools—UsingComparableListingsinAdditiontoSales53ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTools—UsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatioTwomoretoolsusedbyappraisersaredaysonmarket(DOM)andlistpricetosalepriceratioforunitssoldinaspecificmarket.Thiswillgivesomeindicationofthecurrentmarket.See4.3Example.54ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.3Example—DaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatioThesubjectislocatedinamarketwherethefollowingdatawasfoundintheMLScomputer.Thedataalonewouldimplyachangeinmarket.Thebargraphonthenextslideillustratesthisaswell.TheDOMisforsoldunits.55ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.3Example—DaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio56ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide56Tools—UsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatioThestudyofdaysonmarket(DOM)canbeagoodtool.Itcanalsobemanipulatedbyrealestatebrokerswhoaretryingtomaketheirlistingslookasrecentaspossible.See4.4Example.5657ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide574.4Example—DaysonMarket(DOM)Thesubjectisaverylargehomeinasmalltown.Ithasbeenonthemarketfornearlythreeyears,butappraiserswhofindtheMLSlistingpagewillthinkithasbeenonly45days.Thebrokerhashadthelistingforalongtime,andeachtimeitexpires,itisrelistedwithaslightlydifferentaddress.Theactualaddressofthepropertyis2929WestSouthlakeBoulevard.Thefirsttimeitwaslisted,theaddresswasspelledoutinfull.Thesecondtime,theword“West”wasabbreviatedas““W.”Thethirdtime,““Boulevard”wasabbreviatedas“Blvd.”Thefourthtime,““Southlake”waslistedastwowords,

“SouthLake.”5658ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide58Thestudyoflistpricetosalepriceratioscanalsobemisleading.See4.5Example.Tools—UsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio59ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsThesubjectwaslistedfor￥499,000for30days.After60days,thepricewasloweredto￥￥475,000.After90days,Itwasloweredagainto￥449,000.Finally,afterthepricewasreducedto￥￥439,900,itsoldfor￥435,000.Thefinallistpricetosalepriceratioseemsquitereasonable,butthatisbecausethelistpricewasreducedsomanytimes.Thisratiosometimesshowsabigdiscountbecausesellersaremoreaggressiveintheirnegotiationsinadowntownmarket.Itshouldalsobepointedoutthatwhenconcessionsaremorecommon,thelisttosalepriceratiowillbeskewed.Insomesituations,thisratiomayexceed100%becauseoftheinclusionofconcessions.4.5Example—ListPricetoSalePriceRatio60ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAppraiserswillfindthatthecostapproach,afterdeductingonlyphysicaldepreciation,showsahighervalueindicationthanthesalescomparisonapproach.Thecostapproachdoesnotinherentlyrecognizeexternalproblems.Ahighervalueconclusioncouldalsobeduetounrecognizedfunctionalproblems,bias,orerrorsinthecurrentcostorsitevalueestimates.Tools—ComparingtheCostApproachtotheSalesComparisonandIncomeCapitalizationApproaches61ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide61FannieMaerequiresaone-yearsaleshistoryforthesubjectpriortotheeffectivedateforthecomparablesales.USPAPrequiresathree-yearsaleshistory.Thisisanexcellenttoolifthedataisavailablebecauseitshowstheactualchangesinamarket.Thesaleandresaleofthesamepropertyeliminatesanylocationaldifference.Thesaleshistorytellsappraisersifamarkethasahighappreciationrateordecliningvalues.Thetableonthenextslideshowsvariousitemsforconsiderationwhenusingthesaleandresaleofthesamepropertyasanindicationofmarketconditions.Tools—AnalysisofaSale,ResaleoftheSameProperty5762ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAnalysisoftheSaleandResaleoftheSameProperty5863ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide634.6Example—AnalysisofComparableSalesHistoryThesubjectisanolderhomeinahistoricdistrictwherebuyersareconstantlyupgradingproperties.Theappraiserdeterminesthatthemarketisweak,butallthesalesandresalesindicatesignificantappreciation.Theappraiserthenfurtherverifiesallthesalesandfindsthedatashowninthenextslide.6164ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.6Example—AnalysisofComparableSalesHistory65ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide65Part4.MeasuringtheMarket——Tools,cont.Tools—StatisticalAnalysisoftheMeanorMedianSalePriceInsomesituations,appraiserscanusetheaveragesalepriceinanareatogaugehowthemarketisperforming.Theaveragesalepricecanbemisleadingifitisnotinterpretedcorrectly.Ifmortgagetermsarelessfavorable,first-timebuyerswithhighloan-to-valu