市場下跌時,如何評估住宅房地產(chǎn)

1ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAppraisalofResidentialRealEstateinDecliningMarkets市場下跌時,如何評估住宅房地產(chǎn)主講人:MarkRattermann,MAI,SRA聯(lián)系方式Mark@E2ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSeminarLearningObjectives主要內(nèi)容Recognizegeneralsourcesofmarketinformationthatmaygiveindicationsofmarkettrends.識別反映市場趨勢的市場信息Recognizeadeclineinalocalmarketwhenitoccurs.及時發(fā)現(xiàn)當?shù)厥袌龀霈F(xiàn)的下跌趨勢Measurethevaluelossesinlocalmarkets.估算市場中的價值損失Applythemeasuredrateofchangeintheanalysisofrealestateusingthecostapproach,incomecapitalizationapproach,andsalescomparisonapproach.在使用成本法,收益法,市場比較法分析房地產(chǎn)時,如何考慮價值的變化Illustratethetoolsnecessarytoshowyourclientstheresultsoftheresearchandanalysis(numericandgraphic).給客戶演示研究和分析結(jié)果的工具(數(shù)字和圖表)Applyvariousmethodstorecognizeandadjustformarketchange.使用不同的方法,分析和調(diào)整市場的變化Applythesetechniquesinsimulatedrealestatesituationsthroughcasestudies.案例分析Slide2Pagevii3ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide3Section1第一部分Part1. DecliningMarkets下跌的房地產(chǎn)市場Part2. GeneralMarketData市場數(shù)據(jù)Part3. IdentifyingtheMarket深入了解市場Part4. MeasuringtheMarket—Tools市場分析的工具Part5.CaseStudies(optional)案例4ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide4Part1.DecliningMarkets

第一節(jié):下跌的房地產(chǎn)市場Introducestheissues簡介Definestheterms定義Discussespossiblereasonsfordecliningmarketsandassociatedproblems.市場下跌的原因和相關(guān)問題Recognizethesignsofadecliningmarket.識別反映市場趨勢的市場信號Recognizetheproblemscreatedforrealestatebuyersandsellersbydecliningmarkets.認識買方和賣方在下跌市場中存在的問題Recognizetheimpactoffallingvalueonequityinterests.了解價值下降對自有資金收益的影響Identifytheappropriatelocationsonthecommonlyusedresidentialappraisalformstoexplainmarketconditions.通用表格式估價報告中如何說明市場市場條件5ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide5“LasttoKnow”Appraisersstudyhistoricaldatatosupportcurrentvalues.

通過研究歷史數(shù)據(jù),研究當前的價值Weneedtorecognizeexistingtoolsandexplore

newones.

現(xiàn)有的工具和開發(fā)新的工具來分析市場變化Useacombinationoftools(oldandnew)

同時使用各種工具(新,舊)Appraisersneedtobeabletodevelop“trendanalysistools”.估價師應(yīng)該有能力開發(fā)“分析市場的工具”.6ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsRecognizeeconomicproblemswhentheyoccur.

及時發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟中存在的問題Analyzetheimpactonrealestateofgeneraleconomicchanges.

分析經(jīng)濟變化對房地產(chǎn)市場的影響Reconcilethemixedmessages.

綜合考慮各類信息Reportyouropinion.

在估價報告中說明你的觀點Slide6AnalyticalToolsHelpAppraisers

分析工具對估價師的幫助7ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsItismoredifficulttoovervalueaproperty.

很難不高估房地產(chǎn)的價值Theeffectivedateofvaluereflectsthemarketconditions

估價時點反映了市場條件Itisalsocommonforappraiserstobe“forgiven”whenpricesareincreasing.See1.1Example.

當價格上升時,估價師的錯誤經(jīng)常被掩蓋.見下一案例

WhenaMarketIsAppreciatingRapidly

市場快速上升時8ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAnappraisererroneouslyappraisesaproperty

for￥300,000thatisworthonly￥275,000.Inthismarket,valuesareincreasingat10%

peryear.Lessthanoneyearaftertheoriginaldateofappraisal,thepropertyisnowworth￥300,000.Anypreviouscomplaintaboutovervaluingisdiminishedbyitscurrentworth.Thisappraisalmightberegardedasaproblembytheappraiser’speers,butnotbythepublic.1.1Example—AppreciationCuresaLotofIlls9ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsItisnaturaltoovervalueaproperty.

高估是正常的Anoverpricedpropertyonthemarketforalongtimemovesfurtherawayfrommarketvalueeachday.See1.2Example.

高估的市場價值每天都在減少WhenaMarketIsDeclining

市場下跌時10ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsThesubjectisinamarketwherepricesarefallingbyabout3%peryear.Thepropertywascorrectlyappraisedat￥300,000,butitwasoverpricedanddidnotsell.Theselleraggressivelyloweredthepriceby.25%eachmonth.Asaresultofthedecliningmarket,thesellerkeptevenwiththechanges.Thepropertywasneverpricedwithinthiscompetitivemarket.1.2Example—ChasingtheValueDowntheHill11ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsOptimisminadecliningmarkethasitscosts.Inadecliningmarket,anaccuratevalueopiniontodaymaynotbevalidtomorrow.1.2Example—ChasingtheValueDowntheHill12ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsIfthereisnegativeequity,sellingthepropertyandpayingoffthemortgagemaynotbeanoption.Thereisanoldrealestateaxiom,“Negativeequitybreedsforeclosure.”Theonlyoptionmaybetoholdthepropertyaslongaspossibleandthenallowaforeclosure.Decliningvaluesbringtolightmanyproblemsthatareotherwisehiddenbyappreciation.Evenifthebrokercansellthepropertyformorethanthemortgageamount,theremaynotbeapayday.See1.3Example.NegativeEquity13ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents1.3Example—NegativeEquityBreedsForeclosureThesubjectpropertyislistedforsaleat￥349,900.Thebrokerthinksitwillsellfor￥345,000inthismarket.Thebrokerfeeis6%andothercostsadd1%.Thebrokerturneddownthelistingbecausethesellersdidnothaveanymoremoney.Thebrokerdidnotthinkshecouldsellthepropertyformorethan￥345,000.14ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsInotherwords,thesellersdidnothavethemoneytoclose.1.3Example—NegativeEquityBreedsForeclosure15ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsPart2.GeneralMarketData第二節(jié):市市場數(shù)據(jù)據(jù)LearningObjectivesDefinemarketdataterms.市場數(shù)據(jù)的的定義Identifysourcesofgeneralmarketdataforappraiserstoresearchmarketconditions.市場數(shù)據(jù)的的來源Definetheweaknessesofapplyinggeneralmarketdatatoaspecificmarket.市場數(shù)據(jù)中中存在的缺缺陷Illustratehowsomemarketsfunctionwhentherearesignificantsupplyanddemandswings.分析供需變變化16ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsContractRateon30-YearFixed-RateHomeMortgages貸款的浮動動利率和固固定利率Theabove-listedinterestratesarefairlyhighintheearly1980s.Theratesgenerallydeclinein1982–1983,1986,1994,and1999–2000.1817ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsContractRateon30-YearFixed-RateHomeMortgagesAnapplicantwhoqualifiesfora￥￥1,000permonthmortgagepaymentata6%interestratecouldborrow￥166,791.61.At14.5%,thatsameapplicantcouldborrowonly￥￥81,662.26.HigherinterestratesinhibitdemandbecausebuyersdonotwanttopayhigherratesBuyersmayevenchoosetowaitforlowerrates.18ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsNationalAssociationofRealtors(NAR),nationaldatabaseofsalesandlistings19ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsMedianSalePrice-ExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(NAR)20ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsMedianSalePriceExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(000’’somitted)21ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(NAR)2022ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide22AllStateData(NAR)CityMedianSalePriceTrends24ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTrackingBuildingPermitscangiveacluetoachangeindemandinthebeginningofadownturnmarket.Ifthemarkethaschangedforawhilepermitsbottomoutandthenarenotagoodclue.25ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTrackingBuildingPermitsfromDept.ofCommerce.26ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsNewPrivatelyOwnedHousingUnitPermitsx1,00027ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsWhatKindofMarketsExist?Thefirstmarketinthisgraphisavolatileonewherelargeincreasesinpricesoccurandthenlargedeclines.28ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents“Althoughthisgeneraldataisinteresting,howcanitbeappliedtoappraisalpractice?”Whencombinedwithdatafromothermarkets,cannotbeusedtodiscernlocalmarketconditions.AppraiserscanrelyonthesedatasourcestohelpidentifyachangeinmarketconditionsthatCOULDbehappeninglocally.ThisisexcellentdataforunderwriterswhoreviewappraisalsthroughoutChina.Itispossibleforalocalmarkettobesubstantiallydifferentduetochangesinemployment,housing,orevenschoolratings.Thelocalmarketdatamaybemisleadingifthestatisticsarenotcalculatedonanongoingbasis.RelevanceofGeneralDatatoLocalAppraisers29ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsPart3.IdentifyingtheMarket深入了解市市場Identifycriteriathatbuyersusetoselectapropertytopurchase分析買方購購買物業(yè)的的原因Recognizethatanoversupplyinonemarketmaynotmeananoversupplyinanothermarketorsubmarket一個城市供供給過度另另一個城市市供給并不不一定過度度Beabletodivideamarketintosubmarketstoidentifytrendsthataffectonesegmentbutnotallofthem將市市場場細細分分,分分析析局局部部對對整整體體的的影影響響30ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsIsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?一個個市市場場的的信信息息可可以以應(yīng)應(yīng)用用到到另另一一個個市市場場嗎嗎Ifanappraiserseespricesfallinginonemarket,canitbeassumedtheyarefallinginallpartsofthesamegeographicarea?Inanymarket,pricescanincreaseordecreasesignificantlyifabasiceconomicfactorchanges.Isthemarketinoneprovinceorregionthesameasinotherprovincesorregions?Thereisonlyonethingcertaininthisdiscussion——thereisno““onesizefitsall””market.31ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsIsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?Arethesamemarketconditionsapplicabletoallcommunitieswithinthesameregionofaprovince?Increasingordecliningpricesresultfromshiftsinsupplyanddemandintheshortrun.Therearemanyfactorsthatwillimpactonecommunitymorethananother.32ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAremarketconditionsinacommunityapplicabletoallpriceranges?Thefactorscausinghighorlowdemanddonothavetobeapplicabletoalldemographics.Isthemarketforfour-bedroomhomesthesameasthemarketfortwo-bedroomhomes?Sincethedemographicisdifferent,themarketconditionscouldalsobemuchdifferent.IsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?33ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsMarketsandSubmarkets市場場和和市市場場細細分分Anopinionofmarketvalueviasalescomparisonisresearchbasedonwhatpriormarketparticipantshavedone.Thisrequirestheappraisertoidentifythemarketandanysubmarkets.Thepossiblecriteriausedtoidentifyandsegregateamarketreflectthecriteriabywhichbuyerschoosepropertiestoview.Anappraisercannotcountthenumberofbuyersandsellerswithoutknowingtheircriteria.34ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsExamplesofCriteriaUsedinPurchaseDecisionsSchoolsystemMunicipalgovernmentservicesParkdistrictLibrarydistrictLocationFireprotectiondistrictsPolicedistrictsLotsizeUtilitiesavailable3935ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsExamplesofCriteriaUsedinPurchaseDecisionsQualityofimprovementsAgeofimprovementsConditionofimprovementsSizeofimprovementsBasementandbasementfinishEnergyefficiencyCarparkingOtherfeatures3936ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSearchtoolscancompiledatafromasmall,localmarketarea.Someofthisdataiscompiledandgraphedforthebrokerorappraiserasshownonthefollowinggraph.Part4.MeasuringtheMarket—Tools-LocalDatabases市場分析析的工具具37ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents37LocalDatabaseInformation––pre-calculatedanalysis22LocalDatabaseInformation當?shù)財?shù)據(jù)據(jù)信息Somedatabasesallowappraiserstodownloadlargeamountsofsalesinformation.Thisdatacanbeinterpretedandpresentedbytheappraisertosupportconclusions.Therearegraphictoolsandregressiontoolsavailable.Forexample;38ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents39ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents39LocalDatabaseInformationforaspecificsubdivision.40ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents40Graphwithregression(trend)linefromlocaldatabaseinformationforaspecificsubdivision.2341ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsLocalDatabaseStatistics––CarmelIndiana4142ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTools——SupplyandDemandStudyThefirstsignofachangingmarketcanbeverifiedbytheappraiserwhiledevelopingthesupplyanddemandstudy.Measurethemonthlysalesrate,e.g.theannualnumberofsalesinthemarketdividedby12.Dividethenumberofcurrentforsale(listings)bythemonthlysalesrate.43ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAssesstheattributesofthesubject.Decidewhothetypicalbuyerisinthedesignatedmarket.Designasearchtocountthenumberofcompetingpropertiesforeachpotentialbuyer.ToUseThisTool,theAppraiserMust44ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsCountthenumberofCurrentlistingsavailablewithinthosebuyercriteriaComparablesalesthathaveclosedinthelast12monthsDividethenumberoflistingsbythemonthlyabsorptionrate.Eitheranexcessoralackofpendingsalescouldindicateachange.Pendingsalesandexpired/withdrawnlistingsdonothavetobeincluded.Thisanalysiscanbedonefor6or12months.ToUseThisTool,theAppraiserMust45ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.1Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofOversupplyThesubjectpropertyisimprovedwithatwo-storyhousebuiltin1997withafullbasementandanattachedtwo-cargarage.Theappraiser’sanalysisindicatesthehomeshouldsellforabout￥￥350,000.46ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.1Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofOversupplyThisisprobablythebesttoolavailabletoeasilyresearch,analyze,andreportanoversupplyproblem.Thedataimpliesthatthereiscurrentlya37-monthsupplyofhomesforsaleinthismarket.Appraiserswhofeeltheneedtoreporttheperimetersofthesearchshouldnotincludebedrooms,aschoolsystem,orotherattributesthatmaycausefairhousingconcerns.47ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.2Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofUndersupplyThesubjectisaone-storyhomebuiltonslabwithadetachedfour-cargarage.Itwasconstructedin1930.Theappraiserhasvaluedthehomeat￥￥550,000.48ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide48Thisexampleshowsamarketfavoringsellersthatwouldprobablycausepricestoincrease.Ifthecomparablesalesusedinanappraisalarerecent,theywouldalreadyreflecttheimpactofsuchamarket.Thequestionraisedbyboth4.1Exampleand4.2Exampleis,““Doesthisreflectthemarketforthesubjectasoftheeffectivedateofappraisal?””4.2Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofUndersupply5049ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide49Tools—UsingComparableListingsinAdditiontoSalesAnothertoolusedbymanyappraiserstoensuretheyareawareofadeclineinthemarketisincludingtwoorthreecurrentcomparablelistingsintheanalysis.Anexampleofananalysiswithcomparablelistingsappearsonthenexttwoslides.5050ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsComparables1and251ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsComparables3,4,and552ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsNoticetheoldersalesindicateahighervaluethanthemorerecentcomparable3.Listings4and5showamuchloweradjustedvalue.Inamarketwherethiskindofdatadoesnotexist,theappraiserusesthedataavailableandlooksfortrendsafteradjustmentsaremade.Insomedownturnmarkets,thenumberoflistingsisplentiful,butthenumberofrecentcomparablesalesislimited.Tools—UsingComparableListingsinAdditiontoSales53ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTools—UsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatioTwomoretoolsusedbyappraisersaredaysonmarket(DOM)andlistpricetosalepriceratioforunitssoldinaspecificmarket.Thiswillgivesomeindicationofthecurrentmarket.See4.3Example.54ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.3Example—DaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatioThesubjectislocatedinamarketwherethefollowingdatawasfoundintheMLScomputer.Thedataalonewouldimplyachangeinmarket.Thebargraphonthenextslideillustratesthisaswell.TheDOMisforsoldunits.55ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.3Example—DaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio56ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide56Tools—UsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatioThestudyofdaysonmarket(DOM)canbeagoodtool.Itcanalsobemanipulatedbyrealestatebrokerswhoaretryingtomaketheirlistingslookasrecentaspossible.See4.4Example.5657ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide574.4Example—DaysonMarket(DOM)Thesubjectisaverylargehomeinasmalltown.Ithasbeenonthemarketfornearlythreeyears,butappraiserswhofindtheMLSlistingpagewillthinkithasbeenonly45days.Thebrokerhashadthelistingforalongtime,andeachtimeitexpires,itisrelistedwithaslightlydifferentaddress.Theactualaddressofthepropertyis2929WestSouthlakeBoulevard.Thefirsttimeitwaslisted,theaddresswasspelledoutinfull.Thesecondtime,theword“West”wasabbreviatedas““W.”Thethirdtime,““Boulevard”wasabbreviatedas“Blvd.”Thefourthtime,““Southlake”waslistedastwowords,

“SouthLake.”5658ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide58Thestudyoflistpricetosalepriceratioscanalsobemisleading.See4.5Example.Tools—UsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio59ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsThesubjectwaslistedfor￥499,000for30days.After60days,thepricewasloweredto￥￥475,000.After90days,Itwasloweredagainto￥449,000.Finally,afterthepricewasreducedto￥￥439,900,itsoldfor￥435,000.Thefinallistpricetosalepriceratioseemsquitereasonable,butthatisbecausethelistpricewasreducedsomanytimes.Thisratiosometimesshowsabigdiscountbecausesellersaremoreaggressiveintheirnegotiationsinadowntownmarket.Itshouldalsobepointedoutthatwhenconcessionsaremorecommon,thelisttosalepriceratiowillbeskewed.Insomesituations,thisratiomayexceed100%becauseoftheinclusionofconcessions.4.5Example—ListPricetoSalePriceRatio60ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAppraiserswillfindthatthecostapproach,afterdeductingonlyphysicaldepreciation,showsahighervalueindicationthanthesalescomparisonapproach.Thecostapproachdoesnotinherentlyrecognizeexternalproblems.Ahighervalueconclusioncouldalsobeduetounrecognizedfunctionalproblems,bias,orerrorsinthecurrentcostorsitevalueestimates.Tools—ComparingtheCostApproachtotheSalesComparisonandIncomeCapitalizationApproaches61ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide61FannieMaerequiresaone-yearsaleshistoryforthesubjectpriortotheeffectivedateforthecomparablesales.USPAPrequiresathree-yearsaleshistory.Thisisanexcellenttoolifthedataisavailablebecauseitshowstheactualchangesinamarket.Thesaleandresaleofthesamepropertyeliminatesanylocationaldifference.Thesaleshistorytellsappraisersifamarkethasahighappreciationrateordecliningvalues.Thetableonthenextslideshowsvariousitemsforconsiderationwhenusingthesaleandresaleofthesamepropertyasanindicationofmarketconditions.Tools—AnalysisofaSale,ResaleoftheSameProperty5762ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAnalysisoftheSaleandResaleoftheSameProperty5863ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide634.6Example—AnalysisofComparableSalesHistoryThesubjectisanolderhomeinahistoricdistrictwherebuyersareconstantlyupgradingproperties.Theappraiserdeterminesthatthemarketisweak,butallthesalesandresalesindicatesignificantappreciation.Theappraiserthenfurtherverifiesallthesalesandfindsthedatashowninthenextslide.6164ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.6Example—AnalysisofComparableSalesHistory65ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide65Part4.MeasuringtheMarket——Tools,cont.Tools—StatisticalAnalysisoftheMeanorMedianSalePriceInsomesituations,appraiserscanusetheaveragesalepriceinanareatogaugehowthemarketisperforming.Theaveragesalepricecanbemisleadingifitisnotinterpretedcorrectly.Ifmortgagetermsarelessfavorable,first-timebuyerswithhighloan-to-valu